Tampa Bay Rowdies1Miami2

HT 0–1Sat 3 Oct 2026, 23:30 Settling…

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 03:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Tampa Bay's 5-0-2 home record meets a Miami side on a three-match winning run, in a fixture where the last four meetings have all produced three goals or more.

Tampa Bay are the more likely winners, and 3.1 for them to win is the strongest quoted price; 1.62 for Tampa Bay to win or draw and 3.1 for both teams to score — No also offer something, while 3.2 for the draw and 2.1 for a Miami win do not.

Context

Tampa Bay bring a 5-0-2 home record into the match and Miami arrive with three straight wins, while the head-to-head record points to goals; no availability or line-up information was found, so the sporting picture rests on those records alone.

Miami scored twice at home and still lost, the clearest recent picture of how these two match up. Tampa Bay have taken the points in the most recent meeting and in three of the four listed, and this one came on Miami's ground rather than their own. One match in isolation is thin evidence, but it sits inside a series that has been high-scoring.
- 25 July 2026, USL Championship: Miami FC 2-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies (five goals, away win).
- Sample: one match, the most recent of four listed head-to-head meetings.
Five wins from seven home matches, with none of them drawn, is the strongest single argument for Tampa Bay. Their 2.29 goals a game at home is a heavy load for any visiting defence, and four clean sheets in those seven games shows the other end has held up. The three draws in their wider 15-match record all came away from home, so a level finish has not been the pattern at this venue.
- Home split: 7 matches, 5 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses (13 June to 19 September 2026).
- 2.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per home match in that sample.
- Four clean sheets in those seven home matches.
A losing away record, with 1.63 goals conceded per game, is the part of Miami's profile that makes this trip awkward. Their 1.5 goals scored per away match is respectable rather than damaging, and two away clean sheets show they can keep a game tight on the road. The gap between that split and the results they bring into this match is the thing worth weighing.
- Away split: 8 matches, 3 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses (11 July to 26 September 2026).
- 1.5 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per away match in that sample.
- Two away clean sheets, and both teams scored in four of those eight away matches.
Four goals in the most recent match shows Miami can punish a side once a game opens up, and they led 2-1 at the break before adding two more. Whether that output travels is the open question: their away matches have produced 1.5 goals a game and a 3-1-4 record. A single 4-1 win at home is a good result rather than a guide to what happens at Tampa Bay.
- 30 September 2026, USL Championship: Miami 4-1 Sporting JAX (home win, 2-1 at half-time).
- Sample: one match, the most recent in Miami's tracked window.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.10
The read
Tampa Bay's strong home record and head-to-head edge make them the more likely winner.
- Tampa Bay are 5-0-2 at home this season with 2.29 goals scored per home match.
- Miami are 3-1-4 away and concede 1.63 goals per away match.
- Tampa Bay are unbeaten in the last four head-to-head meetings, winning three.
BetBugs · Match WinnerTampa Bay RowdiesMarket price3.10Estimated chance49%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves have often been tight, and neither team's first-half numbers point to a clear edge.
- Tampa Bay's home first-half goal difference is -2 (0.71 scored, 1.00 conceded).
- Miami's away first-half goal difference is +2 (0.88 scored, 0.63 conceded).
- Tampa Bay's last two matches were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's strong home second-half record makes them the most likely second-half winner.
- Tampa Bay average 1.57 second-half goals at home and concede 0.29.
- Miami average 0.63 second-half goals away and concede 1.00.
- Tampa Bay have scored second-half goals in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerTampa Bay RowdiesEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Tampa Bay's strong home record and head-to-head edge make them the more likely winner. A draw is possible given Miami's tendency to take points on the road, but Tampa Bay's home record makes it less likely.
- Tampa Bay are 5-0-2 at home this season with 2.29 goals scored per home match.
- Miami are 3-1-4 away and concede 1.63 goals per away match.
- Tampa Bay have drawn 3 of 15 overall, but none of their 7 home matches.
- Miami have drawn 4 of 15 overall and 1 of 8 away.
BetBugs · Double ChanceTampa Bay Rowdies or DrawMarket price1.62Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay can lead at half-time, but their home first-half scoring is modest. First halves have often been tight, and neither team's first-half numbers point to a clear edge.
- Tampa Bay average 0.71 first-half goals at home.
- Miami concede 0.63 first-half goals away.
- Tampa Bay's home first-half goal difference is -2 (0.71 scored, 1.00 conceded).
- Miami's away first-half goal difference is +2 (0.88 scored, 0.63 conceded).
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfTampa Bay Rowdies or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Head-to-head history and both teams' home and away goal averages point to three or more goals.
- All four head-to-head meetings produced at least three goals (5, 5, 3 and 6).
- Tampa Bay home matches average 3.57 total goals.
- Miami away matches average 3.13 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.65Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Miami's away scoring and the head-to-head pattern make both teams scoring more likely than not.
- Both teams scored in all four head-to-head meetings.
- Miami have scored in 6 of 8 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's home scoring rate and Miami's away concession rate point to at least two home goals.
- Tampa Bay average 2.29 goals per home match.
- Miami concede 1.63 goals per away match.
- Tampa Bay scored in 6 of 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalTampa Bay Rowdies over 1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's home defense makes under 1.5 for Miami slightly more likely.
- Miami have scored one or none in two of their last four away matches.
- Tampa Bay concede 1.29 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalMiami under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Miami's consistent away scoring makes a Tampa Bay clean sheet unlikely.
- Miami scored in all four head-to-head meetings.
- Miami have scored in 6 of 8 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreMiami to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay almost always score at home, so Miami are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- Tampa Bay scored in 6 of 7 home matches.
- Tampa Bay average 2.29 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreTampa Bay Rowdies to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half averages point to at least one goal before the break.
- Tampa Bay home first-half total average is 1.71 goals.
- Miami away first-half total average is 1.50 goals.
- Miami have seen first-half goals in five of their last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's low first-half scoring at home makes a no more likely.
- Tampa Bay have not had both teams score in the first half in their last six matches.
- Tampa Bay average 0.71 first-half goals at home and concede 1.00.
- Miami have had both teams score in the first half in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half averages point to a slightly better chance of two or more goals after the break.
- Tampa Bay home second-half total average is 1.86 goals.
- Miami away second-half total average is 1.63 goals.
- Miami have seen over 1.5 second-half goals in four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Tampa Bay Rowdies: 4/7 recent winner projections matched

4 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Tampa Bay Rowdies matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Tampa Bay Rowdies7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL Championship