Paraguari13 de Noviembre0

HT 1–0Sat 3 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–753%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 01:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Both clubs are still fighting to stay up, and the first of the final four rounds sets Paraguarí's home record against 3 de Noviembre's six-wins-in-eight surge.

Paraguarí hold the larger share, but 2.15 asks more of them than the record supports, as do the draw at 3.5 and 3 de Noviembre at 2.88. Both teams to score, at 1.75, is the one price worth taking: neither defence has been keeping clean sheets.

Context

3 de Noviembre arrive on a six-wins-in-eight run that only began after a 19-match winless start, the longest in Intermedia's history. The turnaround lifted them to a 1.000 relegation average, 26 points from 26 matches, after the 3-1 win away to leaders General Caballero JLM on 25 September. That away form is the concrete part for this fixture, because Paraguarí host a side that now travels with a survival route it can still mathematically close. The limit is that they remain bottom of the averages table, so the recovery has narrowed the gap without yet removing the risk.
- 3 de Noviembre went 19 rounds without a win, the longest such run in División Intermedia history, before a late-season recovery.
- A 3-1 win away to leaders General Caballero JLM on 25 September lifted 3 de Noviembre to a 1.000 relegation average, with 26 points from 26 matches.
- Six wins and one draw in their previous eight league matches left the club still bottom of the relegation averages with four rounds remaining.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 01:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Paraguarí AC are in their first season in the División Intermedia and have spent the run-in pulling away from the relegation averages, most recently through a 3-1 win at Benjamín Aceval on 14 September and a 3-2 home win over then-leaders General Caballero JLM five days later. Those results frame the home side's priority in this fixture as protecting a survival cushion rather than chasing the top places. The cushion is not yet decisive: a 2-1 defeat at Tembetary on 28 September was a reminder that one result can tighten things again with four rounds left. Their home form is the part most relevant here, since this is the first of those closing fixtures.
- Paraguarí AC are in their first season as a División Intermedia club.
- A 3-1 win away to Benjamín Aceval on 14 September moved Paraguarí AC closer to securing their place in the division for 2027.
- Paraguarí AC beat then-leaders General Caballero JLM 3-2 at home on 19 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 01:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Paraguarí are in their first season in the División Intermedia and sit eighth on 35 points from 26 matches.
The gap between their home and away records is the clearest split in their season, and it points to them being a tougher opponent at their own ground than their overall numbers suggest. The counterweight is that 3 de Noviembre have been winning away in this closing stretch, including 3-1 at leaders General Caballero JLM on 25 September, so a strong home split is not a guarantee of control here.
- Paraguarí's league home record is 7W-2D-4L with 19 goals scored and 13 conceded across 13 matches (standings fetched 1 October 2026).
- Their league away record is 3W-3D-7L with 16 scored and 22 conceded across 13 matches.
- They sit 8th on 35 points from 26 matches.
Achucarro took over 3 de Noviembre with the club bottom of the Intermedia relegation averages and remains under contract to Cerro Porteño until December 2027, so his longer-term position is not settled even as results improve. His side have won six of their last eight league matches, a run that includes the 3-1 win away to leaders General Caballero JLM on 25 September and has taken the club to a 1.000 average. That away form is the concrete anchor for this fixture, because Paraguarí host a side that has recently been effective on the road. Nothing points to an imminent change of coach, so the contract detail is context on the club's situation rather than a selection factor.
- Jorge Achucarro holds a Cerro Porteño contract running to December 2027 while managing 3 de Noviembre.
- He took the 3 de Noviembre job knowing the club's position in the División Intermedia relegation averages.
- 3 de Noviembre have won six of their last eight league matches under him.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 01:32 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.30fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 76.9%

−8.9ppshort

Combined first-half scoring sits above one goal per game, so at least one goal before the break is the likely outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.15
The read
Paraguarí's home record and their current run of wins give them the larger share, while the visitors' season-long travelling record is weak.
- Paraguarí: 8W-2D-5L in 15 tracked matches, and 5W-1D-2L in their 8 home matches of that window
- 3 de Noviembre: 3W-1D-9L away from home in the league this season, scoring 15 and conceding 22
- Paraguarí have won five of their last six tracked matches
- The only 2026 meeting, on 28 June, finished 1-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonParaguariEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring rates are modest, making a level half-time the single most likely outcome.
- Paraguarí's first-half goals for and against both average 0.6 overall
- 3 de Noviembre's overall first-half record is 0.80 for and 0.47 against
- Half-time was level in 2 of Paraguarí's last 6 tracked matches
- The June meeting was level 1-1 at the interval
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paraguarí do most of their scoring after the break while the visitors concede regularly in second halves.
- Paraguarí's home split shows 1.13 second-half goals for and 0.75 against per match
- Their overall second-half averages are 1.07 for and 0.87 against over 15 matches
- 3 de Noviembre concede 1.13 second-half goals per match across their 8 away-split matches
- Paraguarí scored in the second half of 5 of their last 6 tracked matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostParaguariEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Paraguarí's home record and their current run of wins give them the larger share, while the visitors' season-long travelling record is weak. The visitors' recent surge, including a win over the league leaders, keeps their win share close to the home side's despite a poor season on the road.
- Paraguarí: 8W-2D-5L in 15 tracked matches, and 5W-1D-2L in their 8 home matches of that window
- 3 de Noviembre: 3W-1D-9L away from home in the league this season, scoring 15 and conceding 22
- 3 de Noviembre: 4W-1D-1L in their last six tracked matches, scoring 15 and conceding 9
- Their league away record is 3W-1D-9L, 15 scored and 22 conceded
BetBugs · Double ChancewonParaguari or 3 de NoviembreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves in this fixture profile as low-scoring, and Paraguarí only hold a small edge before the break. Both teams' first-half scoring rates are modest, making a level half-time the single most likely outcome.
- Paraguarí average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.5 against in their 8 home matches
- Their overall first-half averages are 0.6 for and 0.6 against over 15 matches
- Paraguarí's first-half goals for and against both average 0.6 overall
- 3 de Noviembre's overall first-half record is 0.80 for and 0.47 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonParaguari or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals5 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both teams score and concede regularly and their recent matches have been high-scoring, which points to three goals or more.
- Paraguarí overall: 1.67 goals for and 1.47 against per match over 15
- 3 de Noviembre overall: 1.60 for and 1.47 against per match over 15
- Paraguarí's last six matches produced 14 scored and 8 conceded; 3 de Noviembre's produced 15 scored and 9 conceded
- Both teams scored in 10 of Paraguarí's 15 and 9 of 3 de Noviembre's 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Both sides have scored in almost all of their recent matches, and neither defence has been keeping clean sheets.
- Paraguarí scored in 12 of 15 tracked matches and conceded in 13
- 3 de Noviembre scored in 12 of 15 and conceded in 12
- Both teams scored in 5 of Paraguarí's last 6 and 6 of 3 de Noviembre's 8 away-split matches
- Both scored in the 1-1 meeting on 28 June
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
One goal or none from the home side is the more common outcome once their single-goal matches are counted.
- Paraguarí scored 12 goals in 15 tracked matches and failed to score in 3
- Their home-split average is 1.63 goals per match over 8 games
- They scored once in each of their last two matches against Atlético Tembetary (1-2) and Resistencia (1-0)
- Opponents have kept 2 clean sheets against them in 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonParaguari under 1.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Away scoring has been better recently than across the season, and one goal or none remains the more likely single-match outcome.
- 3 de Noviembre have scored 15 goals in 13 league away matches this season
- Their tracked away-split average is 1.63 goals per match over 8 games
- They scored once or none in two of their last six tracked matches
- Paraguarí kept 2 clean sheets in 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Away Goals Totalwon3 de Noviembre under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Paraguarí concede in the large majority of their matches and the visitors score in most of theirs.
- Paraguarí conceded in 13 of 15 tracked matches
- 3 de Noviembre scored in 12 of 15 tracked matches
- 3 de Noviembre have scored in 7 of their 8 away-split matches
- Paraguarí's home split averages 1.25 goals conceded per match
BetBugs · Team to Scorelost3 de Noviembre to scoreEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Paraguarí score in most matches and the visitors concede in most of theirs.
- Paraguarí scored in 12 of 15 tracked matches
- Paraguarí average 1.67 goals per match overall
- 3 de Noviembre conceded in 12 of 15 tracked matches
- 3 de Noviembre's away split averages 1.63 goals conceded per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonParaguari to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Paraguarí concede too regularly for a shutout win to be the likely outcome.
- Paraguarí kept 1 clean sheet in 8 home matches in this window
- 3 de Noviembre scored in 12 of 15 tracked matches
- Paraguarí conceded in 13 of 15 tracked matches
- 3 de Noviembre scored in 7 of their 8 away-split matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Combined first-half scoring sits above one goal per game, so at least one goal before the break is the likely outcome.
- Paraguarí's first-half matches average 1.2 goals combined (0.6 for, 0.6 against)
- 3 de Noviembre's average 1.27 combined (0.80 for, 0.47 against)
- Paraguarí scored in the first half of 3 of their last 6 tracked matches
- 3 de Noviembre scored two first-half goals in two of their last six
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half output from both teams is well under a goal each, so at least one side is very likely to be blank at the break.
- Paraguarí's first-half scoring average is 0.6 goals per match
- 3 de Noviembre's overall first-half scoring average is 0.80
- Neither side averages even one first-half goal per game
- Paraguarí played goalless first halves in their most recent away matches at Benjamín Aceval and Atlético Tembetary
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving these teams average close to two goals, putting two or more just on the likely side.
- Paraguarí's second-half matches average 1.94 goals combined (1.07 for, 0.87 against)
- 3 de Noviembre's average 1.8 combined (0.80 for, 1.0 against)
- Paraguarí's home split shows 1.13 second-half goals for and 0.75 against
- 3 de Noviembre's away split shows 1.0 for and 1.13 against
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance53%