Draw or Sol de America
Market 77% · BetBugs 80%
Sol de América's extremely high draw rate combined with 3 de Noviembre's poor win record makes a home win unlikely, but the price is tight.
Division IntermediaFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Sol de América are the stronger side but draw often, making the double chance (Draw or Sol de América) at 1.30 the safest play with a small positive edge.
The away win at 1.73 offers no value, and the match is likely to be low-scoring, so avoid over 2.5 goals.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 77% · BetBugs 80%
Sol de América's extremely high draw rate combined with 3 de Noviembre's poor win record makes a home win unlikely, but the price is tight.
Market 54% · BetBugs 55%
Both teams have a high frequency of half-time draws, making a level score at the break the most likely outcome, but the edge is minimal.
Other edges · 6
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
Sol de AmericaBetBugs 55% · Market 58%
Sol de América's superior league position and defensive record give them an edge, but the odds already reflect that and offer no value cushion.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
The 'No' outcome is heavily priced and offers no value; the market is not listed in the available odds, so it cannot be backed.
In 4 recent matches with under 2.5 goals projections, 3 de Noviembre fulfilled only 1 prediction. The average estimated probability was 65.5%, but actual fulfilment was just 25%. Notably, the only fulfilled prediction came at home, while both away matches missed.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 3 de Noviembre | 22 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 26-36 | 16 |
| 5 | Sol de America | 22 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 27-18 | 34 |

