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Predictions graded

Colombia0Paraguay1

HT 0–0Sat 3 Oct 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 14–5On targetOn target 2–2CornersCorners 3–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 00:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Colombia's six-match unbeaten competitive run against Paraguay's low-scoring recent record is the tension here, sharpened by Colombia missing James Rodríguez and Luis Díaz and by the neutral New Jersey venue.

Colombia are the likelier winners, in a game that looks tight and short of goals. Both teams to score — No at 1.67 is the one quoted price that holds up; Colombia's 1.7 to win and the Colombia-or-draw prices at 1.13 and 1.18 ask for more than their recent form warrants.

Context

Colombia named a 26-man squad on 17 September that omits James Rodríguez and Luis Díaz and brings in several first-time senior call-ups for a three-match United States window. With the two most established attacking names absent, the creative and forward roles fall to players who have rarely started together, which makes Colombia's shape against Paraguay genuinely unsettled. Lorenzo has kept a core from the previous cycle, so this is a partial rebuild rather than a clean break. Expectations built on Colombia's usual senior attackers should therefore carry less weight here.
- Colombia announced a 26-player squad on 17 September 2026 for friendlies against Mexico, Paraguay and Peru.
- James Rodríguez and Luis Díaz were left out of the list.
- The squad included several first-time senior call-ups.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 00:52 · Europe/Bucharest
Almirón scored in the 17th and 48th minutes as Paraguay beat Bolivia 2-0 on 27 September, the opening match of Gustavo Alfaro's new cycle, with Robert Morales and Julio Enciso supplying the assists. That is the freshest evidence of where Paraguay's attacking threat sits heading into this friendly, and Almirón is again in the squad. Bolivia's resistance was limited and Paraguay faded after several second-half changes, so the margin of the win flatters the performance. The relevant takeaway is the form of the finisher, not the scoreline.
- Almirón scored in the 17th and 48th minutes of Paraguay's 2-0 friendly win over Bolivia on 27 September 2026.
- The win over Bolivia was Paraguay's first match of the post-World Cup cycle, under Gustavo Alfaro.
- M. Almirón started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 00:52 · Europe/Bucharest
The result shows Paraguay can hold on with very little of the ball, matching a competitive sample of 0.43 goals scored per game over their last seven matches. Colombia average 17.3 shots per game across six competitive matches, so Paraguay are likely to spend far more time defending than attacking here.
- 20 June 2026: Paraguay won 1-0 away to Türkiye in the World Cup, with 7 shots to Türkiye's 32.
- Paraguay took 0 corners in that match and conceded 12.
- Paraguay had a player sent off in that match, their 1 red card in the 7 competitive matches tracked.
- Across their last 7 competitive matches Paraguay averaged 0.43 goals scored and 6.71 shots per game.
Alfaro's pre-match comments cast this as a measuring exercise: he described Colombia as going through a partial renewal that keeps part of its previous core, and said the Colombia-Mexico friendly carried World Cup intensity. He also said Paraguay's win over Bolivia let him test variants and look at new players. That points to further rotation here, although pre-match comments rarely settle an eleven. Read it as a signal of intent about how both sides are using the window, not as a lineup.
- Alfaro described Colombia's transition as a partial renewal that retains part of its previous cycle's core.
- He said the Colombia-Mexico friendly was played at World Cup intensity.
- He said the Bolivia match let him test variants and observe new players.
ReportedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 00:52 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Colombia's stronger recent competitive record and higher scoring rate make them the more likely winner.
- Colombia won 5 and drew 1 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Colombia averaged 2.33 goals for and 0.67 against in those matches
- Paraguay won 2, drew 2 and lost 3 of their last 7 competitive matches
- Paraguay averaged 0.43 goals for and 0.86 against in those matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostColombiaEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.15
The read
Low first-half scoring rates for both sides make a level half-time score the most probable outcome.
- Paraguay scored only 1 first-half goal in their last 7 competitive matches
- Colombia averaged 0.83 first-half goals for in their last 6 competitive matches
- Paraguay kept 4 clean sheets in their last 7 competitive matches
- Colombia's first-half defence conceded 0.33 goals per game in their last 6 competitive matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Colombia's second-half scoring is much stronger than Paraguay's, making them the likely winner of the final period.
- Colombia averaged 1.5 second-half goals for in their last 6 competitive matches
- Colombia conceded 0.33 second-half goals per game in those matches
- Paraguay averaged 0.29 second-half goals for in their last 7 competitive matches
- Paraguay conceded 0.29 second-half goals per game in those matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostColombiaEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Colombia's stronger recent competitive record and higher scoring rate make them the more likely winner. Both teams have shown they can be hard to separate, and a friendly with rotated squads often produces a tight scoreline.
- Colombia won 5 and drew 1 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Colombia averaged 2.33 goals for and 0.67 against in those matches
- Colombia drew 1 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Paraguay drew 2 of their last 7 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostColombia or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Colombia have the better first-half scoring and defensive numbers, making them the most likely team to lead at the break. Low first-half scoring rates for both sides make a level half-time score the most probable outcome.
- Colombia averaged 0.83 first-half goals for in their last 6 competitive matches
- Colombia conceded 0.33 first-half goals per game in those matches
- Paraguay scored only 1 first-half goal in their last 7 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonColombia or DrawEstimated chance84%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Paraguay's matches are consistently low-scoring, and Colombia are without two key attackers, making a tight game likely.
- Paraguay's last 7 competitive matches averaged 1.29 total goals
- Colombia's last 6 competitive matches had under 2.5 total goals in 3 of 6
- Colombia drew 1-1 with Mexico in their most recent friendly
- Paraguay beat Bolivia 2-0 in their most recent friendly
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Paraguay's low scoring rate and Colombia's strong defensive record point to at least one team failing to score.
- Colombia kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 competitive matches
- Paraguay averaged 0.43 goals for in their last 7 competitive matches
- Paraguay failed to score in 4 of their last 7 competitive matches
- Colombia conceded only 0.67 goals per game in their last 6 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Colombia's scoring has been modest in home games and they are without key creators, so holding them to one goal or fewer is more likely.
- Colombia averaged 1.25 goals in their last 4 home matches
- Colombia scored exactly 1 goal in 2 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Paraguay kept 4 clean sheets in their last 7 competitive matches
- Colombia's most recent match was a 1-1 friendly draw with Mexico
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonColombia under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Paraguay's low scoring output and Colombia's solid defence make it very likely Paraguay score at most one.
- Paraguay averaged 0.43 goals for in their last 7 competitive matches
- Paraguay failed to score in 4 of their last 7 competitive matches
- Paraguay's two competitive wins were both 1-0
- Colombia conceded only 0.67 goals per game in their last 6 competitive matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonParaguay under 1.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Colombia's defence has been stingy and Paraguay's attack has struggled, so a clean sheet for Colombia is more likely than not.
- Colombia kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 competitive matches
- Colombia conceded 0.67 goals per game in those matches
- Paraguay averaged 0.43 goals for in their last 7 competitive matches
- Paraguay failed to score in 4 of their last 7 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostParaguay not to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colombia's regular scoring and high shot count suggest they will find a goal, so Paraguay are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- Colombia scored in 5 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Colombia averaged 2.33 goals for in those matches
- Colombia took 17.3 shots per game in their last 6 competitive matches
- Paraguay conceded in 3 of their last 7 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostColombia to scoreEstimated chance68%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Paraguay concede a high number of corners, and Colombia's matches already average around 6.5 total, so going over this line is more likely.
- Colombia averaged 3.83 corners for and 2.67 against in their last 6 competitive matches
- Paraguay averaged 2.86 corners for and 6.86 against in their last 7 competitive matches
- Paraguay's opponents averaged 6.86 corners per game
- Colombia's total match corners averaged 6.5 in their last 6 competitive matches
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 6.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Paraguay's very low shot output makes it likely the combined total falls short of 24.5 despite Colombia's volume.
- Colombia averaged 17.33 shots for and 9.17 against in their last 6 competitive matches
- Paraguay averaged 6.71 shots for and 14.86 against in their last 7 competitive matches
- Colombia's total match shots averaged 26.5 in their last 6 competitive matches
- Paraguay's total match shots averaged 21.57 in their last 7 competitive matches
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 24.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Paraguay contribute few shots on target, so the combined total is slightly more likely to stay under 9.5.
- Colombia averaged 7.33 shots on target for and 2.67 against in their last 6 competitive matches
- Paraguay averaged 2.14 shots on target for and 4.14 against in their last 7 competitive matches
- Colombia's total match shots on target averaged 10.0 in their last 6 competitive matches
- Paraguay's total match shots on target averaged 6.28 in their last 7 competitive matches
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Head-to-Head

3W · 2D · 0W

D2-2ColombiavParaguayMar 26, 2025WOR

W2-1ColombiavParaguayJun 24, 2024COP

W0-1ParaguayvColombiaNov 21, 2023WOR

W2-0ColombiavParaguayNov 20, 2022FRI

D0-0ColombiavParaguayNov 16, 2021WOR

Colombia unbeaten in 5 meetingsColombia: 3 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Colombia

D1-1MexicoSep 27FRI

W1-0GhanaJul 4WOR

D0-0PortugalJun 27WOR

W1-0Congo DRJun 24WOR

W3-1UzbekistanJun 18WOR

W2-0JordanJun 7FRI

W3-1Costa RicaJun 1FRI

L1-3FranceMar 29FRI

L1-2CroatiaMar 26FRI

W3-0AustraliaNov 19FRI

W2-1New ZealandNov 16FRI

D0-0CanadaOct 15FRI

W4-0MexicoOct 12FRI

W6-3VenezuelaSep 9WOR

W3-0BoliviaSep 4WOR

Paraguay

W2-0BoliviaSep 27FRI

L0-1FranceJul 4WOR

D0-0AustraliaJun 26WOR

W1-0TürkiyeJun 20WOR

L1-4USAJun 13WOR

W4-0NicaraguaJun 5FRI

L1-2MoroccoMar 31FRI

W1-0GreeceMar 27FRI

W2-1MexicoNov 19FRI

L1-2USANov 15FRI

L0-2South KoreaOct 14FRI

D2-2JapanOct 10FRI

W1-0PeruSep 9WOR

D0-0EcuadorSep 4WOR

L0-1BrazilJun 11WOR

Squad & Injuries

Colombia

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Paraguay

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Under 2.5

Draw

Colombia or Draw

Colombia or Draw

Colombia

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 6 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Colombia

Paraguay

Squad & Injuries

Colombia

Paraguay