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Predictions graded

Bolivia0Paraguay2

HT 0–1Sun 27 Sept 2026, 20:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges2–167%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 01:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Paraguay open their post-World Cup cycle against Bolivia on neutral ground in Washington, where Bolivia's all-home competitive wins lose their footing.

Paraguay's five clean sheets in eight competitive matches make them the likelier winner, and three goals-market prices offer something: Under 2.5 at 2.1, both teams to score – No at 1.83, and no first-half goal at 3.25. Over 2.5, both teams to score and a first-half goal are priced beyond the record.

Context

Paraguay have not played since the 2026 World Cup, so this is the squad's first get-together of the new cycle and the staff are working with a group that has had little time to re-form. The two-match United States tour, Bolivia in Washington followed by Colombia in New Jersey, defines the shape of the post-tournament period, and the party includes new faces rather than only World Cup regulars. Friendly windows at this stage are normally used to spread minutes, so patterns here can reflect experimentation rather than a settled strongest eleven. The match still matters as the first reference point for how the rebuilt side looks.
- Paraguay's squad has not been together since the 2026 World Cup, and the Bolivia friendly is its first match of the new cycle.
- The two-game United States window, Bolivia in Washington and then Colombia in New Jersey, is the opening assignment of the post-tournament period.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 01:21 · Europe/Bucharest
Bolivia's reset after missing out at the play-off stage keeps the same sporting base but leans on youth and players developed abroad, including footballers based in MLS and Portugal. The Washington friendly is one of the first opportunities to see whether that group is being carried forward into the next cycle, and it follows a period in which the squad was described as working through the disappointment of elimination. The limitation is that a single friendly on neutral ground is a weak gauge of a rebuild, and the selection draws on a group with limited international experience in several areas, so any read on progress stays provisional.
- Bolivia's September group is built on very young players developed abroad, among them footballers based in MLS and Portugal.
- The squad is being rebuilt on the same sporting base after Bolivia's exit at the play-off stage.
ReportedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 01:21 · Europe/Bucharest
Bolivia travelled to the United States without a decided formation or starting eleven for this friendly, with the coaching staff planning to make those calls once the squad was in Washington. That leaves the set-up genuinely open rather than merely unannounced, which widens the range of plausible line-ups beyond what the squad list alone suggests. An unsettled shape is normal for a friendly early in a cycle, and Villegas has kept the same young, internationally based core across recent squads. The practical consequence is added uncertainty about how Bolivia will be organised on the day.
- Bolivia had no settled tactical shape or starting XI for the Paraguay friendly, with those decisions to be made after arriving in Washington.
- The September squad follows the same youth-first, overseas-based selection line used through qualifying.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 01:21 · Europe/Bucharest
Paraguay's camp assembled in stages, starting with 15 of the 28 selected players in the Washington rain on 22 September and only reaching full strength on Friday 25 September, two days before kick-off. That matters because the coaching staff had few sessions with the complete group to work on shape and set-piece detail before opening a new cycle. Three players, Hugo Cuenca, Hugo Adrián Benítez and Alexis Cañete, were the last to be integrated. Friendlies allow generous rotation, so the practical effect is more likely to show in cohesion than in who is picked.
- Paraguay's first session in Washington on 22 September was held in rain with 15 of the 28 selected players.
- The group grew to 25 the following day, with Hugo Cuenca, Hugo Adrián Benítez and Alexis Cañete still to join.
- The squad trained at full strength for the first time on Friday 25 September, two days before kick-off.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 01:21 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paraguay's defensive record and overall squad quality give them the largest single share of the match outcome on neutral ground.
- Paraguay kept 5 clean sheets in 8 competitive matches, conceding 0.75 goals per game
- Paraguay won 1-0 away to Türkiye in the tracked window
- Bolivia lost both tracked competitive away matches, 0-3 to Colombia and 1-2 to Iraq
- Paraguay's group for this tour is a refreshed squad rather than the World Cup line-up
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonParaguayEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score little before the break, making a level first half the single most likely outcome.
- Paraguay's last six matches produced four goalless first halves
- Paraguay average 0.25 first-half goals for and 0.5 against
- Bolivia average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.4 against
- Bolivia's most recent match was level 1-1 at half-time against Iraq
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half output from both teams is low enough for a level closing period to be the most likely single outcome.
- Paraguay average 0.375 second-half goals for and 0.25 against per match
- Bolivia average 0.6 second-half goals for and 0.8 against
- Five of Paraguay's last six matches had one or no second-half goals
- Bolivia's most recent match was level 1-1 after the break against Iraq
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bolivia have the better recent results, but the neutral venue in Washington removes the home conditions behind all three of their wins. Paraguay's defensive record and overall squad quality give them the largest single share of the match outcome on neutral ground.
- Bolivia won 3 of 5 tracked competitive matches, averaging 1.2 goals for and 1.2 against
- All three tracked home competitive matches were wins, while both away matches were defeats
- Paraguay kept 5 clean sheets in 8 competitive matches, conceding 0.75 goals per game
- Paraguay won 1-0 away to Türkiye in the tracked window
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBolivia or ParaguayEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bolivia's first-half scoring is the stronger of the two, but first halves between these sides have often been tight. Both teams score little before the break, making a level first half the single most likely outcome.
- Bolivia average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.4 against per competitive match
- Paraguay average 0.25 first-half goals for and 0.5 against
- Paraguay's last six matches produced four goalless first halves
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostBolivia or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Paraguay's matches rarely produce many goals and Bolivia have also been kept to one or fewer in three of their last five competitive games.
- Paraguay's 8 competitive matches average 1.375 total goals
- Paraguay kept 5 clean sheets in those 8 matches
- Five of Paraguay's last six matches produced one goal or none
- Bolivia's matches average 2.4 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83
The read
At least one side has been kept off the scoresheet in most recent matches for both teams.
- Paraguay scored in only 4 of 8 competitive matches
- Paraguay kept 5 clean sheets in 8 competitive matches
- Bolivia were kept out by Colombia and held to one goal by Iraq in their two most recent defeats
- Only one of Paraguay's last six matches had goals for both teams
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bolivia's modest scoring rate against a Paraguay side that rarely concedes makes one goal or none the more likely outcome.
- Bolivia average 1.2 goals per competitive match
- Paraguay kept 5 clean sheets in 8 competitive matches
- Paraguay's away matches concede 1.25 goals per game
- Bolivia were kept scoreless by Colombia in their last competitive away match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBolivia under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Paraguay have scored at most one goal in almost every recent competitive match.
- Paraguay average 0.625 goals per competitive match
- Paraguay scored more than one goal in 1 of 8 competitive matches
- Paraguay failed to score in 4 of 8 competitive matches
- Bolivia kept 2 clean sheets in 5 competitive matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostParaguay under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bolivia's recent defensive record outside home conditions suggests Paraguay are more likely than not to score.
- Paraguay scored in 4 of 8 competitive matches
- Bolivia conceded in 3 of 5 competitive matches
- Bolivia's away competitive record shows 3 conceded to Colombia and 2 to Iraq
- Paraguay's most recent competitive goal came against USA
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonParaguay to scoreEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bolivia's scoring record points to Paraguay being more likely than not to concede at least once.
- Bolivia scored in 4 of 5 competitive matches and average 1.2 goals
- Paraguay conceded 1.25 goals per away competitive match
- Paraguay shipped four goals in their most recent World Cup match against USA
- Bolivia were shut out only by Colombia in the tracked window
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBolivia to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals have appeared in most of Bolivia's matches but in only a third of Paraguay's, leaving the line close to even.
- Bolivia's competitive matches produced at least one first-half goal in 4 of 5
- Paraguay's last six matches had four goalless first halves
- Bolivia average 0.6 first-half goals for, Paraguay 0.25
- Bolivia concede 0.4 and Paraguay concede 0.5 first-half goals per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Closing periods involving Paraguay have produced very few goals, and Bolivia's second-half output is also modest.
- Paraguay average 0.375 second-half goals for and 0.25 against
- Paraguay's last six matches produced one or no second-half goals in five of them
- Bolivia average 0.6 second-half goals for and 0.8 against
- Paraguay kept second-half clean sheets in their draws with Australia and Ecuador
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance72%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Paraguay's matches generate a high opponent corner count and Bolivia's are close to even, which points to a total above the line.
- Paraguay concede 6.875 corners per competitive match while taking 3.125
- Bolivia take 4.33 and concede 4.67 corners per competitive match
- Bolivia's home matches averaged 5.5 corners for and 5 against
- Paraguay's World Cup matches had opponent corner counts of 12, 3, 12 and 3
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bolivia's shot-heavy matches and Paraguay's low shot output roughly cancel out, leaving the line close to even.
- Bolivia's three tracked competitive matches average 27.7 total shots
- Paraguay's competitive matches average about 21 total shots
- Bolivia average 19.5 shots for and 12 against in home matches
- Paraguay average 7 shots for and 17.75 against in away matches
BetBugs · Shots Over/Undernot gradableOver 23.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D2-2BoliviavParaguayNov 19, 2024WOR

L1-0ParaguayvBoliviaOct 17, 2023WOR

W4-0BoliviavParaguayOct 14, 2021WOR

L3-1ParaguayvBoliviaJun 15, 2021COP

D2-2ParaguayvBoliviaNov 17, 2020WOR

3.4 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Bolivia

L0-4AlgeriaJun 11FRI

L0-4ScotlandJun 6FRI

L1-2IraqApr 1WOR

W2-1SurinameMar 26WOR

W3-0Trinidad and TobagoMar 15FRI

L0-1MexicoJan 25FRI

D1-1PanamaJan 18FRI

L0-2PeruDec 21FRI

L0-3JapanNov 18FRI

L0-2South KoreaNov 14FRI

L0-3RussiaOct 14FRI

W1-0JordanOct 10FRI

W1-0BrazilSep 9WOR

L0-3ColombiaSep 4WOR

W2-0ChileJun 10WOR

Paraguay

L0-1FranceJul 4WOR

D0-0AustraliaJun 26WOR

W1-0TürkiyeJun 20WOR

L1-4USAJun 13WOR

W4-0NicaraguaJun 5FRI

L1-2MoroccoMar 31FRI

W1-0GreeceMar 27FRI

W2-1MexicoNov 19FRI

L1-2USANov 15FRI

L0-2South KoreaOct 14FRI

D2-2JapanOct 10FRI

W1-0PeruSep 9WOR

D0-0EcuadorSep 4WOR

L0-1BrazilJun 11WOR

W2-0UruguayJun 5WOR

Squad & Injuries

Bolivia

34 available

Attackers9

Midfielders10

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Paraguay

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 8 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Bolivia

Paraguay

Squad & Injuries

Bolivia

Paraguay