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Predictions graded

Saint Lucia3Guadeloupe0

HT 2–0Fri 2 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1029%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 8–12On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 16:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Guadeloupe lead Group B by a point; a home win would put Saint Lucia above them.

Guadeloupe have won eight of 15 tracked matches and Saint Lucia have conceded in all 15 without a clean sheet, so a Guadeloupe win with goals at both ends is the likeliest shape. No quoted price is worthwhile: Guadeloupe at 2.15, over 2.5 goals at 1.5, both teams to score at 1.5 and a first-half goal at 1.22 all ask more than the form supports.

Context

Saint Lucia beat Bermuda 5-2 on 28 September for their first win of the campaign, three days after losing 0-2 to Barbados, with both matches staged at the same ground. That swing matters here because Saint Lucia now meet Guadeloupe, the group's highest-ranked side, and the result will show whether the Bermuda night was a genuine attacking step. Bermuda have lost both opening fixtures, so the five goals need weighing against Saint Lucia's scoreless defeat to Barbados in the same window.
- Saint Lucia recorded their first win of the 2026-27 Concacaf Nations League with a 5-2 defeat of Bermuda at the Daren Sammy Cricket Ground on 28 September.
- The result followed a 0-2 loss to Barbados on 25 September and left Saint Lucia on three points after two group matches.
- Saint Lucia scored five goals in the game after failing to score in the Barbados defeat.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 15:59 · Europe/Bucharest
Guadeloupe trailed Bermuda for much of their 25 September opener and needed goals on 84 and 89 minutes to win 2-1, after Bermuda had two players sent off. The win counts, but the timing is the useful signal for this fixture: Guadeloupe edged the group's bottom side only once the game broke open late. Bermuda's coach called Guadeloupe the highest-ranked team in the group beforehand, so the quality is real, but the margin came against nine men.
- Guadeloupe won their League B opener 2-1 away to Bermuda on 25 September.
- Bermuda led through E. Russell before Guadeloupe scored twice late, the goals recorded at 84 and 89 minutes.
- Bermuda had two players sent off before conceding the late goals.
- Bermuda coach John Barry Nusum described Guadeloupe as the highest-ranked team in the group before the match.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 15:59 · Europe/Bucharest
Guadeloupe came from behind to draw 2-2 with Barbados on 28 September, a result that kept them level at the top of the group. The pattern worth noting for this fixture is that Guadeloupe have now needed late goals in both September matches, rescuing results rather than controlling them. They meet a Saint Lucia side that has just scored five, so how Guadeloupe manage another slow start at the same ground is the open question.
- Guadeloupe drew 2-2 with Barbados on 28 September at the Daren Sammy Stadium in Saint Lucia.
- Barbados were denied victory by a late Guadeloupe equaliser in the top-of-the-table meeting.
- The draw followed Guadeloupe's 2-1 win at Bermuda on 25 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 15:59 · Europe/Bucharest
Guadeloupe lead the early Group B standings on four points with Saint Lucia a point behind after beating Bermuda. A home win on 2 October would therefore lift Saint Lucia above the group's highest-ranked side and hand Guadeloupe a first defeat of the campaign. The stakes are real but not decisive, and Guadeloupe's two September results came against Bermuda and Barbados, so the ordering is compressed rather than settled.
- Saint Lucia took three points from their first two League B games, losing 0-2 to Barbados and beating Bermuda 5-2.
- Guadeloupe took four points from the same window, beating Bermuda 2-1 and drawing 2-2 with Barbados.
- Saint Lucia continue their group campaign against Guadeloupe on 2 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 15:59 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 82%

−7.0ppshort

Both teams are frequently involved in first halves with at least one goal.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and Saint Lucia's defense concedes heavily.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

−8.7ppshort

Both teams have been scoring and conceding regularly in recent matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.15
The read
Guadeloupe have the stronger overall record and should trouble a Saint Lucia side that has conceded in every tracked match.
- Guadeloupe have won 8 of 15 tracked matches and scored in 12.
- Guadeloupe's away split is 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses.
- Saint Lucia have conceded in all 15 tracked matches and kept no clean sheets.
- Saint Lucia's overall goals-against average is 2.67 per match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGuadeloupeEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Guadeloupe start slowly, and several of their recent first halves ended level.
- Guadeloupe have scored only 0.47 first-half goals per match overall.
- Guadeloupe's away first-half goals for average is 0.63.
- Saint Lucia have conceded 1.27 first-half goals per match.
- Guadeloupe's recent first halves included two 0-0 scores.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Guadeloupe score more after the break, while Saint Lucia concede regularly in second halves.
- Guadeloupe's second-half goals for average is 1.27 and against is 0.53.
- Guadeloupe's away second-half goals for average is 1.13 and against is 0.50.
- Saint Lucia's second-half goals against average is 1.40.
- Saint Lucia conceded second-half goals in five of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostGuadeloupeEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guadeloupe start slowly, and several of their recent first halves ended level. Saint Lucia concede early often, so Guadeloupe have a good chance to lead at half-time.
- Guadeloupe have scored only 0.47 first-half goals per match overall.
- Guadeloupe's away first-half goals for average is 0.63.
- Saint Lucia conceded first-half goals in all six of their most recent matches.
- Saint Lucia's first-half goals-against average is 1.27 per match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or GuadeloupeEstimated chance72%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and Saint Lucia's defense concedes heavily.
- Saint Lucia's matches average 3.94 total goals (1.27 for, 2.67 against).
- Guadeloupe's away matches average 3.13 total goals (1.75 for, 1.38 against).
- Saint Lucia's last six matches included totals of 7 and 7.
- Guadeloupe's last six matches included totals of 7 and 5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams have been scoring and conceding regularly in recent matches.
- Saint Lucia have conceded in all 15 tracked matches and kept no clean sheets.
- Guadeloupe have scored in all six of their most recent matches.
- Saint Lucia have scored in 10 of 15 tracked matches.
- Guadeloupe have conceded in five of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guadeloupe score regularly and face a Saint Lucia defense that concedes heavily.
- Guadeloupe average 1.73 goals per match overall and 1.75 away.
- Guadeloupe scored two or more in four of their last six matches.
- Saint Lucia concede 2.67 goals per match overall.
- Guadeloupe scored in all six of their most recent matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostGuadeloupe over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Saint Lucia usually find a goal, and Guadeloupe have conceded in most recent matches.
- Saint Lucia have scored in 10 of 15 tracked matches.
- Saint Lucia scored in four of six home matches.
- Guadeloupe have conceded in five of their last six matches.
- Guadeloupe's overall clean-sheet rate is eight in 15.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSaint Lucia to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams are frequently involved in first halves with at least one goal.
- Saint Lucia's last six matches all had at least one first-half goal.
- Saint Lucia's first-half total average is 2.00 goals.
- Guadeloupe's first-half total average is 1.07 goals.
- Guadeloupe's last six first halves had goals in four matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent second halves often produce multiple goals.
- Saint Lucia's second-half total average is 1.93 goals.
- Guadeloupe's second-half total average is 1.80 goals.
- Guadeloupe had two or more second-half goals in four of their last six matches.
- Saint Lucia had two or more second-half goals in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages are near or above the line.
- Saint Lucia average 3.67 corners and concede 5.67, for a total of 9.33.
- Guadeloupe average 5.23 corners and concede 3.85, for a total of 9.08.
- Guadeloupe's away corner total average is 9.57.
- Recent matches produced 11 and 7 corners for these teams.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' shot averages are above the line, and recent games have been busy.
- Saint Lucia's matches average 28.42 total shots.
- Guadeloupe's away matches average 27.86 total shots.
- Saint Lucia had a recent match with 36 total shots.
- Guadeloupe had a recent match with 33 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 26.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' shots-on-target averages are around the line, with some high recent counts.
- Saint Lucia's matches average 10.58 total shots on target.
- Guadeloupe's away matches average 10.00 total shots on target.
- Saint Lucia had a recent match with 18 total shots on target.
- Guadeloupe had a recent match with 15 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches involving both teams have often produced at least four cards.
- Saint Lucia's recent matches had three and five total cards.
- Guadeloupe's recent matches had five and six total cards including reds.
- Saint Lucia's opponents average 1.58 yellow cards.
- Guadeloupe's opponents average 1.69 yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 2W

L2-0GuadeloupevSt. LuciaOct 15, 2023CON

L2-1St. LuciavGuadeloupeOct 13, 2023CON

2.5 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Saint Lucia

W5-2BermudaSep 29CON

L0-2BarbadosSep 26CON

L1-6AzerbaijanMar 27FIF

L1-3St. Vincent / GrenadinesNov 16CON

L0-3CubaNov 12CON

W2-1BarbadosJun 10WOR

L0-4CuraçaoJun 6WOR

L1-4CuraçaoNov 18CON

L0-4GrenadaNov 15CON

L0-4Saint MartinOct 14CON

W2-1Saint MartinOct 12CON

W2-1GrenadaSep 10CON

W2-1CuraçaoSep 6CON

D2-2ArubaJun 11WOR

L1-2HaitiJun 6WOR

Guadeloupe

D2-2BarbadosSep 28CON

W2-1BermudaSep 25CON

L2-3GuatemalaJun 24CON

L1-2JamaicaJun 20CON

L2-5PanamaJun 16CON

W1-0NicaraguaMar 26CON

W1-0NicaraguaMar 22CON

W1-0Cayman IslandsNov 19CON

W6-0Cayman IslandsNov 15CON

D0-0MartiniqueOct 16CON

L0-1MartiniqueOct 11CON

W1-0SurinameSep 9CON

L0-3Costa RicaSep 6CON

W5-0St. Kitts and NevisNov 19CON

W2-0Sint MaartenNov 16CON

Squad & Injuries

Saint Lucia

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Guadeloupe

0 available

Attackers0

Midfielders0

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0