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Predictions graded

Israel0Kosovo0

HT 0–0Thu 1 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions6–940%

Edges0–40%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 10–18On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 4–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Oct 2026, 20:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Israel are bottom of Group B3 on no points and playing their home game in Debrecen; Kosovo have three points, five clean sheets in 11 competitive matches and the better recent results.

That makes Kosovo the likelier winner, though 2.3 is not worth taking. Of the quoted prices reviewed, only Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 stands up.

Context

Israel's coach is under sustained public pressure after a 0-3 defeat by the Republic of Ireland, with Israeli outlets and a former international openly debating whether he should continue. The scrutiny has followed the squad into the Kosovo fixture rather than fading, which puts preparation and any in-game decisions under unusual attention. Ben Shimon remains in post and has been fronting the build-up at press conferences. The limitation is that all of this is off-pitch noise; there is no evidence yet of a selection or tactical change flowing from it.
- Israel's Ran Ben Shimon was asked after the Ireland defeat about his future and whether he would take responsibility and resign.
- Israeli pundit and former international Yonatan Cohen said ahead of the Kosovo game that no coach can recover from a result like that.
- Ahead of the fixture Ben Shimon said the expectations around the team had not been so closely related to football.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 20:13 · Europe/Bucharest
Israel have not played a home match at home since October 2023, so this Group B3 fixture with Kosovo is staged at the Nagyerdei Stadion in Debrecen, Hungary, where the usual crowd and travel imbalance is largely removed. Kosovo are based in the same city and trained there in the days before the game, so they give up less than a normal away side would. The one remaining edge belongs to Israel, who already played at this ground and lost 0-3 to the Republic of Ireland there on 27 September. Neither team's support will be large, which flattens the atmosphere further.
- Israel have not hosted a home match since October 2023 because of security concerns.
- Their home Nations League fixtures in this window are being staged at the Nagyerdei Stadion in Debrecen, Hungary.
- Only a small allocation of Israeli supporters is expected at the neutral-venue games.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 20:13 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sportwww.bbc.com · 24 Sep 2026
Israel have lost both matches of this window, 3-1 in Austria and then 0-3 to the Republic of Ireland at the same Hungarian ground. They arrive bottom of Group B3 on no points, with Austria, Kosovo and Ireland all above them, so a third defeat would leave the campaign badly adrift after three games. The Ireland match also showed a defence that conceded three goals inside the first half. The counterpoint is that the Ireland fixture was played amid unusual off-field disruption, so it may not be a clean guide to Israel's football.
- Israel lost their Group B3 opener 3-1 away to Austria.
- They then lost 0-3 to the Republic of Ireland in Debrecen on 27 September.
- Three of the goals Israel conceded to Ireland came before half-time.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 20:13 · Europe/BucharestESPNwww.espn.com · 27 Sep 2026
Kosovo's coach Franco Foda has said he will change his starting eleven for this game, after a 3-1 defeat in Vienna in which his side fell two goals behind inside the first half. A reshuffle points to a different approach against an opponent that sits bottom of the group and has conceded six goals in two matches. The intent to alter the side is clearer than the specific personnel, which has been trailed only in a projected line-up. Foda's previous selection drew criticism at home for leaving attacking players on the bench, so the direction of the change is worth watching.
- Kosovo coach Franco Foda said at his pre-match press conference that he will make changes to the starting eleven.
- Kosovo are preparing in Debrecen, where the fixture is being played.
ReportedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 20:13 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.30fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 76.9%

−0.9ppshort

Recent matches for both sides have almost always produced a first-half goal.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.70fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 58.8%

−4.8ppshort

Both sides find the net in roughly two thirds of their matches and neither defence has looked secure.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Kosovo

2.30fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 43.5%

−1.5ppshort

Kosovo have the stronger results and defensive record in this sample and have avoided defeat in both previous meetings.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Kosovo have the stronger results and defensive record in this sample and have avoided defeat in both previous meetings.
- Kosovo are 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats with five clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- Kosovo won 2-0 in Slovenia and 4-3 in Slovakia in the away-split sample
- Kosovo won the most recent meeting 1-0 and drew the other 1-1
- Kosovo sit second in Group B3 on three points, Israel bottom on none
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKosovoEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams start slowly in this sample, which points to a tight opening period.
- Israel average 0.5 first-half goals for in home-split matches
- Kosovo average 0.83 first-half goals for in away-split matches
- Three of Kosovo's last six matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving Kosovo have often stayed level, and the second period is harder to call than the match result.
- Kosovo concede 0.33 second-half goals per away-split match
- Kosovo were level after the break in three of their last six matches
- Both sides' second-half goal averages sit near 1.0 to 1.7
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Israel score regularly in their neutral home fixtures and Kosovo give up goals on the road, but Israel's own defence is the weaker of the two. Kosovo have the stronger results and defensive record in this sample and have avoided defeat in both previous meetings.
- Israel are 5 wins, 6 defeats with no draws in their last 11 competitive matches
- Israel average 2.17 goals for and 2.33 against across their six home-split matches
- Kosovo are 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats with five clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- Kosovo won 2-0 in Slovenia and 4-3 in Slovakia in the away-split sample
BetBugs · Double ChancelostIsrael or KosovoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams start slowly in this sample, which points to a tight opening period. Israel have conceded before the break in every recent match, giving Kosovo a live chance to lead early.
- Israel average 0.5 first-half goals for in home-split matches
- Kosovo average 0.83 first-half goals for in away-split matches
- Israel concede 1.17 first-half goals per home-split match
- Israel trailed at half-time in each of their last six listed matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or KosovoEstimated chance75%

Goals2 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both defences concede regularly and Israel's recent matches have been consistently high-scoring.
- Israel's last six matches produced 3, 4, 5, 3, 5 and 9 goals
- Israel concede 2.36 per competitive match and Kosovo 1.83 per away-split match
- Kosovo's two most recent away matches finished 4-3 and 1-3
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Both sides find the net in roughly two thirds of their matches and neither defence has looked secure.
- Israel scored in 8 of 11 and Kosovo in 8 of 11 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 4 of Israel's 6 home-split matches
- Kosovo kept five clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Israel's recent attacking output is inconsistent and Kosovo's defence has held firm in many matches.
- Israel failed to score in three of their last six matches
- Kosovo kept five clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- Israel conceded three before half-time against Ireland
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonIsrael under 1.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kosovo's overall scoring rate is modest and multiple recent matches produced a single goal.
- Kosovo scored eight goals in 11 competitive matches
- Kosovo's overall goals-for average is 1.36 per match
- Israel kept two clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonKosovo under 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Israel's defence has conceded in almost every recent match against a Kosovo side that usually finds a goal.
- Israel have two clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- Kosovo scored in five of their last six matches
- Israel conceded 2.36 goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostKosovo to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Israel's home scoring rate makes it likely Kosovo concede at least once.
- Israel score 2.17 goals per home-split match
- Kosovo concede 1.83 goals per away-split match
- Israel scored four in two of their six home-split matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostIsrael to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Recent matches for both sides have almost always produced a first-half goal.
- Israel conceded a first-half goal in each of their last six listed matches
- Israel's home-split first halves average 1.67 goals combined
- Kosovo's away-split first halves average 2.33 goals combined
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Israel's home matches have been busy after the break and the second half carries most of the scoring in this fixture's sample.
- Israel's home-split second halves average 2.83 goals combined
- Israel's last six matches produced 17 second-half goals
- Kosovo's away-split second halves average 1.33 goals combined
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance59%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both team splits point to a combined corner count around nine or ten.
- Israel average 6 corners and concede 4 per home-split match
- Kosovo average 3.5 corners and concede 6.17 per away-split match
- Kosovo's away-split matches produced 9.7 corners combined
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two teams' combined shots on target sit right around the line.
- Israel average 6.83 shots on target and concede 5.0 per home-split match
- Kosovo average 4.5 shots on target and concede 4.5 per away-split match
- Israel's last two matches produced 7 and 10 shots on target combined
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 1W

L1-0KosovovIsraelNov 12, 2023EUR

D1-1IsraelvKosovoMar 25, 2023EUR

1.5 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Israel UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)	2	0	0	2	1-6	0	LL
2	Kosovo Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)	2	1	0	1	2-3	3	LW

3pt gap between teamsKosovo leads the leagueIsrael in relegation zoneKosovo in relegation zone

Recent Form

Israel

L0-3Rep. Of IrelandSep 27UEF

L1-3AustriaSep 24UEF

W1-0AlbaniaJun 3FRI

D2-2GeorgiaMar 26FRI

W4-1MoldovaNov 16WOR

D0-0LithuaniaNov 13FRI

L0-3ItalyOct 14WOR

L0-5NorwayOct 11WOR

L4-5ItalySep 8WOR

W4-0MoldovaSep 5WOR

W1-0SlovakiaJun 10FRI

W3-1EstoniaJun 6WOR

L2-4NorwayMar 25WOR

W2-1EstoniaMar 22WOR

W1-0BelgiumNov 17UEF

Kosovo

L1-3AustriaSep 27UEF

W1-0Rep. Of IrelandSep 24UEF

W3-0AndorraJun 7FRI

L1-2CzechiaMay 31FRI

L0-1TürkiyeMar 31WOR

W4-3SlovakiaMar 26WOR

D1-1SwitzerlandNov 18WOR

W2-0SloveniaNov 15WOR

W1-0SwedenOct 13WOR

D0-0SloveniaOct 10WOR

W2-0SwedenSep 8WOR

L0-4SwitzerlandSep 5WOR

W4-2ComorosJun 9FRI

W5-2ArmeniaJun 6FRI

W3-1IcelandMar 23UEF

Squad & Injuries

Israel

25 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Kosovo

32 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4