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Predictions graded

Austria3Israel1

HT 1–0Thu 24 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions14–193%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 19–5On targetOn target 9–1CornersCorners 4–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 09:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Austria's home record, four wins and a draw in five with 3.4 goals a game, meets an Israel side whose tracked competitive record stops in November 2025.

Austria are the likelier winners, but 1.4 asks more than the record supports. The two quoted prices with a small edge are both teams to score, No, at 2.05 and the draw at 5.00.

Context

Austria won both meetings played in Austria, 3-1 in October 2019 and 4-2 in November 2021; Israel won both in Israel, 4-2 in March 2019 and 5-2 in September 2021.
The pattern is five years old and says little about the current squads, but it does show Israel have scored freely against Austria, including five in the September 2021 meeting, so a quiet afternoon for them is not the only plausible shape of this game.
- Four meetings from 24 March 2019 to 12 November 2021; the home team won all four
- Both teams scored in each meeting; the four matches produced 23 goals
- Most recent meeting: Austria 4-2 Israel, 12 November 2021, World Cup qualification
They averaged 14.0 shots and 6.6 on target at home while allowing 9.8 shots and 2.8 on target per match.
Five matches is a small sample, but it is the most direct evidence for this fixture and it describes a home side that creates plenty and gives up little.
- Home split: 5 matches, 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats (7 June 2025 to 17 June 2026)
- 3.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per home match; two clean sheets in five
- Per home match: 14.0 shots and 6.6 on target, against 9.8 shots and 2.8 on target for opponents
They averaged 8.7 shots and 3.7 on target away while facing 15.5 shots and 5.3 on target, and opponents took 6.0 corners to Israel's 2.7.
The six-match window closed in October 2025, so it may describe a different Israel team from the one that arrives here, but the pattern of few chances created and many conceded is the clearest away evidence in the file.
- Away split: 6 matches, 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats (14 October 2024 to 14 October 2025)
- 1.33 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per away match; two clean sheets
- Per away match: 8.7 shots and 3.7 on target against 15.5 and 5.3 for opponents; corners 2.7 against 6.0
It is the only one of Austria's six most recent tracked matches in which they failed to register a single shot on target.
One match should temper rather than overturn the five-match home record, but it is the freshest evidence in the file and it shows Austria can be kept quiet for a whole game.
- 2 July 2026, World Cup: Austria 0-3 Spain; Austria had 5 shots, 0 on target, 0 corners; Spain had 23 shots, 10 on target, 9 corners

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Austria's home scoring and defensive numbers are far stronger than Israel's away record, and Israel's away wins came against much weaker opposition than this.
- Austria home split: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 3.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match (5 matches)
- Austria overall competitive: 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, 2.33 scored and 1.08 conceded per match (12 matches)
- Israel away split: 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 1.33 scored and 2.17 conceded per match (6 matches)
- Israel's away losses include 0-5 at Norway and 0-3 at Italy
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAustriaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.80
The read
Austria start strongly at home while Israel have been slow starters away, giving Austria the better first-half position.
- Austria score 1.6 first-half goals and concede 0.2 per home match (5 matches)
- Austria average 1.17 first-half goals and 0.33 conceded in 12 competitive matches
- Israel score 0.5 and concede 1.0 first-half goals per away match (6 matches)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonAustriaEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Austria's home second-half scoring is their strongest phase and Israel concede regularly after the break away from home.
- Austria score 1.8 and concede 0.4 second-half goals per home match (5 matches)
- Austria average 1.17 second-half goals and 0.75 conceded in 12 competitive matches
- Israel score 0.83 and concede 1.17 second-half goals per away match (6 matches)
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonAustriaEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Austria's home scoring and defensive numbers are far stronger than Israel's away record, and Israel's away wins came against much weaker opposition than this. Both teams' records show few draws, but Israel's low-scoring away profile leaves a real chance of a tight, level game.
- Austria home split: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 3.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match (5 matches)
- Austria overall competitive: 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, 2.33 scored and 1.08 conceded per match (12 matches)
- Austria drew 1 of 5 home matches and 2 of 12 competitive matches overall
- Israel drew 1 of 6 away matches and 1 of 11 competitive matches overall
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAustria or DrawEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Austria start strongly at home while Israel have been slow starters away, giving Austria the better first-half position. Both teams' first-half scoring is limited enough that the interval can still arrive with the game level.
- Austria score 1.6 first-half goals and concede 0.2 per home match (5 matches)
- Austria average 1.17 first-half goals and 0.33 conceded in 12 competitive matches
- Austria led at half-time in 1.17 goals per competitive match, with only 0.33 conceded
- Israel scored 0.5 first-half goals per away match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAustria or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Both teams' matches have repeatedly produced three or more goals, and Israel's away games in particular tend to be open.
- Austria home matches average 4.0 total goals (3.4 scored, 0.6 conceded)
- Israel away matches average 3.5 total goals (1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded)
- Israel's last six competitive matches produced 30 goals in total
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Austria's home defence has been tight enough to suggest at least one side will be kept off the scoresheet.
- Austria kept 4 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches and 2 in 5 home matches
- Israel failed to score in 2 of 6 away matches
- Austria conceded only 0.6 goals per home match
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Austria's home scoring rate and Israel's away concession rate both point to Austria scoring at least twice.
- Austria scored in all 5 home matches, averaging 3.4 goals per home match
- Austria averaged 2.33 goals across 12 competitive matches
- Israel conceded 2.17 goals per away match, including 0-5 at Norway
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonAustria over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Israel's away output is low and Austria's home defence has conceded very little, so two or more Israel goals looks unlikely.
- Israel average 1.33 goals per away match across 6 matches
- Israel failed to score in 2 of 6 away matches
- Austria conceded 0.6 goals per home match and kept 2 clean sheets in 5 home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonIsrael under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Israel have found the net in most of their away games, while Austria concede in the majority of their competitive matches.
- Israel scored in 4 of 6 away matches
- Austria conceded in 3 of 5 home matches
- Austria conceded in 8 of 12 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonIsrael to scoreEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Both teams' first-half numbers point to at least one goal before the break being likely.
- Austria score 1.6 first-half goals per home match and concede 0.2
- Israel concede 1.0 first-half goal per away match
- Israel have scored in the first half of several recent competitive matches, including 1-1 at Estonia
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves average around two goals, putting the line near the middle of the expected range.
- Austria home second-half total averages 2.2 goals (1.8 for, 0.4 against)
- Israel away second-half total averages 2.0 goals (0.83 for, 1.17 against)
- Austria's 3-3 draw with Algeria produced four second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner totals in the available sample sit below nine per match on average.
- Austria average 7.0 total corners per competitive match (3.75 for, 3.25 against)
- Israel average 6.57 total corners per competitive match (3.0 for, 3.57 against)
- Austria recorded 0 corners in the World Cup loss to Spain
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches average around nine shots on target combined, slightly below the line.
- Austria home matches total 9.4 shots on target, Israel away matches 9.0
- Austria's 12 competitive matches average 8.58 shots on target combined
- Austria kept Cyprus to 0 shots on target in their 2-0 away win
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages sit just above the line, with a red card already shown in each team's recent record.
- Austria's competitive matches average 3.17 yellow cards combined (1.58 per side, 12 matches)
- Israel's tracked matches average 2.8 yellow cards combined, with a red card in 2 of 11 matches
- Austria's home matches average 3.0 yellow cards combined (5 matches)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance56%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 2W

W4-2AustriavIsraelNov 12, 2021WOR

L5-2IsraelvAustriaSep 4, 2021WOR

W3-1AustriavIsraelOct 10, 2019EUR

L4-2IsraelvAustriaMar 24, 2019EUR

5.8 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Austria Promotion Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
1	Israel Promotion	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Austria leads the leagueIsrael leads the league

Recent Form

Austria

L0-3SpainJul 2WOR

D3-3AlgeriaJun 28WOR

L0-2ArgentinaJun 22WOR

W3-1JordanJun 17WOR

W1-0TunisiaJun 1FRI

W1-0South KoreaMar 31FRI

W5-1GhanaMar 27FRI

D1-1Bosnia & HerzegovinaNov 18WOR

W2-0CyprusNov 15WOR

L0-1RomaniaOct 12WOR

W10-0San MarinoOct 9WOR

W2-1Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 9WOR

W1-0CyprusSep 6WOR

W4-0San MarinoJun 10WOR

W2-1RomaniaJun 7WOR

Israel

W1-0AlbaniaJun 3FRI

D2-2GeorgiaMar 26FRI

W4-1MoldovaNov 16WOR

D0-0LithuaniaNov 13FRI

L0-3ItalyOct 14WOR

L0-5NorwayOct 11WOR

L4-5ItalySep 8WOR

W4-0MoldovaSep 5WOR

W1-0SlovakiaJun 10FRI

W3-1EstoniaJun 6WOR

L2-4NorwayMar 25WOR

W2-1EstoniaMar 22WOR

W1-0BelgiumNov 17UEF

D0-0FranceNov 14UEF

L1-4ItalyOct 14UEF

Squad & Injuries

Austria

26 available

Attackers2

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Israel

31 available

Attackers9

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Draw

Over 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Austria

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 7 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Austria

Israel

Squad & Injuries

Austria

Israel