Saint Lucia55 – 2Bermuda2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.75

The read

Saint Lucia have the home ground and face a Bermuda side missing two suspended players, giving them the clearer path to the win.

• Saint Lucia have 4 wins, 1 draw and 10 defeats in 15 competitive matches, scoring 1.00 and conceding 2.67 per game.
• Bermuda lost 1-2 to Guadeloupe on 25 September and had Jorj Dublin and captain Lejaun Simmons sent off, so both are unavailable here.
• Bermuda's 13 tracked competitive matches brought 3 wins, 1 draw and 9 defeats with 3.08 goals conceded per game.
• The match is played at Daren Sammy Cricket Ground, where Saint Lucia lost 0-2 to Barbados on 26 September.

BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSaint LuciaEstimated chance42%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Saint Lucia have the home ground and face a Bermuda side missing two suspended players, giving them the clearer path to the win. Bermuda have shown they can score away from home and meet a Saint Lucia defence that concedes in every match.

• Saint Lucia have 4 wins, 1 draw and 10 defeats in 15 competitive matches, scoring 1.00 and conceding 2.67 per game.
• Bermuda lost 1-2 to Guadeloupe on 25 September and had Jorj Dublin and captain Lejaun Simmons sent off, so both are unavailable here.
• Saint Lucia have conceded in all 15 competitive matches and kept no clean sheet.
• Saint Lucia lost 4 of their last 6 competitive matches, conceding 19 goals across those games.

BetBugs · Double ChancewonSaint Lucia or BermudaEstimated chance74%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Saint Lucia lead rarely at the break, but Bermuda's habit of conceding early gives them a fair chance. Both teams score little before half-time, which makes a level first half the most likely single outcome.

• Saint Lucia average 0.60 first-half goals and concede 1.27 per game across 15 matches.
• Bermuda average 1.33 first-half goals conceded across 13 competitive matches.
• Saint Lucia average 0.60 first-half goals for and 1.27 against across 15 matches.
• Bermuda average 0.56 first-half goals for and 1.33 against across 13 matches.

BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSaint Lucia or DrawEstimated chance74%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Both teams concede heavily and score regularly, with clean sheets almost absent on either side.

• Saint Lucia's 15 competitive matches average 3.67 goals in total (1.00 for, 2.67 against).
• Bermuda's 13 competitive matches average 4.46 goals in total (1.38 for, 3.08 against).
• Saint Lucia have kept no clean sheet in 15 matches and Bermuda only one in 13.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57

The read

Saint Lucia almost always concede and Bermuda rarely shut opponents out, so both scoring is the more likely outcome.

• Saint Lucia have conceded in every one of their 15 competitive matches, with no clean sheets.
• Bermuda scored in 7 of 13 competitive matches, and both teams scored in those same 7 games.
• Bermuda have kept only one clean sheet in 13 competitive matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25

The read

Both teams concede regularly before the break, so at least one first-half goal is the likely outcome.

• Saint Lucia's matches average 1.87 first-half goals (0.60 for, 1.27 against).
• Bermuda's matches average 1.89 first-half goals (0.56 for, 1.33 against).
• Saint Lucia trailed at half-time in 5 of their last 6 competitive matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both defences concede regularly after the break, so two or more second-half goals is a marginal favourite.

• Saint Lucia's matches average 1.80 second-half goals (0.40 for, 1.40 against).
• Bermuda's matches average 1.89 second-half goals (0.33 for, 1.56 against).
• Three of Bermuda's last six matches produced three or more second-half goals.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Bermuda concede a large number of corners and Saint Lucia's matches already average more than nine, so the line looks achievable.

• Saint Lucia average 4.17 corners and concede 5.25 per match across 12 tracked matches.
• Bermuda average 3.64 corners and concede 7.82 per match across 11 tracked matches.
• Bermuda's away matches average 3.2 corners for and 11.6 against across 5 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams are routinely outshot and concede shots in volume, so a busy shot count is likely.

• Saint Lucia's matches average 28.25 total shots (11.75 for, 16.50 against) across 12 matches.
• Bermuda's matches average 28.64 total shots (9.27 for, 19.36 against) across 11 matches.
• The two most recent fixtures produced 31 and 33 total shots.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams allow plenty of shots on target, so nine or more across the match is the likelier outcome.

• Saint Lucia's matches average 10.5 shots on target in total (4.5 for, 6.0 against) across 12 matches.
• Bermuda's matches average 12.6 shots on target in total (4.36 for, 8.27 against) across 11 matches.
• Bermuda's last match had 15 shots on target in total; Saint Lucia's last match had 5.