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Predictions graded

Newport County2Grimsby Town1

HT 0–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges2–529%

PossPossession 33%–67%ShotsShots 10–10On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 7–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 03:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Newport's unbeaten home league record against a Grimsby side yet to lose in League Two sets up a tight, low-scoring afternoon at Rodney Parade, with the draw the likeliest single result.

Four reviewed prices offer something: the draw at 3.6, Newport to lead at half-time at 4.33, both teams not to score before half-time at 1.2 and both teams not to score at 1.95. Grimsby at 1.78 is best left alone.

Context

Newport's most productive forward of the opening month was set to be removed by international duty, with BBC Sport Wales reporting the Malawi call-up would take him out of this fixture as well as the Gillingham game. The club then confirmed on 23 September that he had withdrawn from the squad for the window, and Malawian coverage of the federation's announcement said he asked to be considered for the next camp. That matters for a home side carrying a single league win, because Gwengwe scored four goals in his first three league games. His role, rather than his availability, is the caveat: Mullins used him only from the bench in the 2-0 EFL Trophy win at Swindon on 22 September.
- Newport County announced on 23 September that Shaquille Gwengwe had withdrawn from the Malawi national team squad for the forthcoming international window.
- BBC Sport Wales reported on 16 September that his first Malawi call-up would rule him out of Newport's League Two fixtures against Grimsby Town and Gillingham.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 03:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Grimsby's forward play has been built around Cook as a target man, and the club named his finish at Fleetwood Town its goal of the month for August. A Grimsby preview published on 23 September listed him as out for this fixture, which would remove the focal point for a side whose attacking moves have started with his hold-up work. The caveat is the strength of the evidence: the listing comes from a single preview account rather than the club, and Grimsby have published no injury update, so the composition of their attack at Rodney Parade should be treated as uncertain. The same preview pointed to midfielder Kieran Green as the alternative.
- A Grimsby match preview posted on 23 September listed Andy Cook as out for the Newport County fixture.
- Cook won Grimsby Town's August goal-of-the-month award for his strike against Fleetwood Town, announced by the club on 17 September.
To watchSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 03:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Newport went to Swindon on 22 September without a win in five matches and left with a 2-0 victory, their first away win of the season and a first clean sheet of the new campaign. The part that carries into this fixture is venue: Newport are unbeaten at Rodney Parade in the league, with a win over Rochdale and draws against Tranmere and Fleetwood. The caveat is selection and intensity. The EFL Trophy night was used to give minutes to players outside Mullins' league XI, with the manager sending on Adu-Poku, Halpin and Gwengwe late, so the scoreline is a weak guide to the side that will face Grimsby.
- Newport County won 2-0 at Swindon Town in their EFL Trophy opener on 22 September.
- BBC Sport Wales reported that the result ended a five-match winless run, and Nation.Cymru described it as Newport's first away win of the season.
- Ged Garner opened the scoring after four minutes and Tanatswa Nyakuhwa added the second.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 03:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Grimsby's Trophy opener at Notts County turned on the last kick of the game, with Ollie Cooper scoring in the sixth minute of added time after the Mariners had come back from a 33rd-minute deficit. It was their final match before travelling to Newport, and it ended a seven-match unbeaten sequence across all competitions without touching their League Two record. The limitation is the competition: the Trophy is used for minutes and squad rotation, so the result says little about the team Artell will pick at Rodney Parade, even if the short turnaround is real.
- Ollie Cooper scored in the 96th minute as Notts County beat Grimsby Town 2-1 in the EFL Trophy on 22 September.
- Grimsby had trailed 1-0 from the 33rd minute before the late winner.
- David Artell spoke to the media after what the club described as a defeat in its Trophy opener.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 03:46 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.60
The read
Both teams' league splits are draw-heavy and recent head-to-heads at Newport were level.
- Newport have drawn two of three home league games; Grimsby have drawn all three away league games.
- The last two meetings at Rodney Parade finished 0-0.
- Grimsby are unbeaten in League Two with four draws in seven.
- Newport's overall league record is one win, three draws, three losses.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Newport often lead or draw at half-time, but their low first-half concession rate keeps the draw likely.
- Newport have been level at half-time in three of their last six matches.
- Grimsby were level at half-time in one of their last six matches.
- Newport's overall first-half goals for average is 0.75 and against is 0.125.
- Both teams' first-half goal totals are modest.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring and conceding patterns point to a close half.
- Grimsby have drawn the second half in several recent matches.
- Newport's second-half goal difference is negative overall.
- Both teams' second-half scoring averages are modest.
- Grimsby's away second-half goals for average is 0.75 and against is 0.5.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' league splits are draw-heavy and recent head-to-heads at Newport were level. Grimsby's unbeaten league start and better overall record make them the stronger side, even if their away form is draw-heavy.
- Newport have drawn two of three home league games; Grimsby have drawn all three away league games.
- The last two meetings at Rodney Parade finished 0-0.
- Grimsby are third in League Two, unbeaten with 13 points from seven games.
- They have won three and drawn one of four home league games, scoring seven and conceding two.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Grimsby TownEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Newport's first-half home scoring and clean sheet record give them the edge before the break. Newport often lead or draw at half-time, but their low first-half concession rate keeps the draw likely.
- Newport have scored 1.33 first-half goals per home league game and conceded none.
- Newport have not conceded a first-half goal in their last six matches.
- Newport have been level at half-time in three of their last six matches.
- Grimsby were level at half-time in one of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonNewport County or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Head-to-head history and both teams' clean-sheet records suggest a lower-scoring game is plausible.
- The last two head-to-heads at Newport finished 0-0 and only one of the last five meetings went over 2.5 goals.
- Newport's overall first-half goals against average is 0.125.
- Grimsby have kept four clean sheets in nine competitive matches.
- Newport have kept three clean sheets in eight competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
The head-to-head record and clean-sheet totals lean towards at least one side being shut out.
- Only one of the last five head-to-head meetings had both teams scoring.
- Newport have kept three clean sheets in eight competitive matches.
- Grimsby have kept four clean sheets in nine competitive matches.
- Newport failed to score in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams' recent first halves have produced goals often enough for an early goal to be likely.
- Grimsby's last six matches all had at least one first-half goal.
- Newport's home league games have averaged 1.33 first-half goals for and none against.
- Newport scored first-half goals in three of their last six matches.
- Combined first-half goal averages suggest around one goal per game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Newport's first-half defensive record makes it unlikely both teams score before the break.
- Newport have not conceded a first-half goal in their last six matches.
- Newport's overall first-half goals against average is 0.125.
- Grimsby have scored 0.5 first-half goals per away league game.
- Both teams scored in the first half in none of Newport's last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined second-half averages are close to the line, with Grimsby in particular often involved in quiet second halves.
- Grimsby's overall second-half goals for and against average totals 1.11.
- Grimsby's away second-half total average is 1.25.
- Newport's home second-half total average is 1.67.
- Several recent Grimsby matches had few second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Newport's recent corner counts and Grimsby's away average sit below the line.
- Newport's overall competitive matches average 3.75 corners for and 6.0 against, totaling 9.75.
- Grimsby's away league games average 9.5 total corners.
- Newport's last six matches averaged 8.5 total corners.
- Only one of Newport's last six matches went over 11.5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 11.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent shot volumes put the total near the line, with a slight lean to the over.
- Newport's home league games average 13.0 shots for and 11.67 against, totaling 24.67.
- Grimsby's away league games average 13.5 shots for and 12.25 against, totaling 25.75.
- Four of Newport's last six matches went over 25.5 total shots.
- Three of Grimsby's last six matches went over 25.5 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 25.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Newport's home and recent shot-on-target totals sit below the line.
- Newport's home league games average 6.67 total shots on target.
- Grimsby's away league games average 8.0 total shots on target.
- Newport's last six matches averaged 7.17 total shots on target.
- Only two of Newport's last six matches went over 8.5 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both teams have regularly produced three or more cards.
- Five of Newport's last six matches had at least three total cards.
- Five of Grimsby's last six matches had at least three total cards.
- Newport's home league games average 5.5 total cards.
- Grimsby's away league games average 3.25 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance78%

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

D0-0Newport CountyvGrimsbyFeb 7, 2026LEA

L2-1GrimsbyvNewport CountyAug 16, 2025LEA

L1-0GrimsbyvNewport CountyMar 22, 2025LEA

D0-0Newport CountyvGrimsbyNov 16, 2024LEA

L1-0GrimsbyvNewport CountyApr 6, 2024LEA

Grimsby Town unbeaten in 5 meetingsNewport County: 2 clean sheetsGrimsby Town: 4 clean sheets1 goals/game avg

League Table

League Two 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
19	Newport County	7	1	3	3	10-11	6	DDLLD
3	Grimsby Town Promotion - League One	7	3	4	0	11-6	13	WWDDD

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Newport County

W2-0Swindon TownSep 22EFL

D0-0Accrington STSep 19LEA

D1-1Fleetwood TownSep 12LEA

L0-1NorthamptonSep 5LEA

L1-2Salford CitySep 1LEA

D2-2TranmereAug 29LEA

L3-5Bristol RoversAug 22LEA

W3-0RochdaleAug 15LEA

L1-4AS RomaAug 4FRI

W2-1Yeovil TownAug 1FRI

L0-4ReadingJul 28FRI

D2-2Bath CityJul 25FRI

D0-0Bristol CityJul 21FRI

L1-2Gloucester CityJul 11FRI

W5-0Newport CityJul 8FRI

Grimsby Town

L1-2Notts CountySep 22EFL

W2-0Crawley TownSep 19LEA

W2-0Bristol RoversSep 12LEA

D2-2CheltenhamSep 5LEA

D2-2Accrington STSep 1LEA

D2-2Fleetwood TownAug 29LEA

D0-0WalsallAug 22LEA

W1-0Exeter CityAug 15LEA

L1-3BlackpoolAug 8LEA

W3-2Grimsby BoroughAug 4FRI

W2-0WiganAug 1FRI

D0-0Boston UnitedJul 29FRI

W5-1LincolnJul 28FRI

W3-0HartlepoolJul 25FRI

D1-1Zorya LuhanskJul 18FRI

Squad & Injuries

Newport County

29 available

Attackers10

Midfielders6

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Grimsby Town

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Newport County

No

No

Under 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Under 11.5

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Newport County

Grimsby Town

Squad & Injuries

Newport County

Grimsby Town