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Predictions graded

Antigua and Barbuda5Anguilla0

HT 5–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–756%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 74%–26%ShotsShots 24–8On targetOn target 10–2CornersCorners 4–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 02:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Neither side wins or scores much: Antigua and Barbuda are without a win in 15 competitive matches and Anguilla have two competitive wins in eight, with no draws.

A low-scoring night with Antigua slightly more likely to edge it, though a level scoreline is live. Of the reviewed prices, the first half to end level at 9, fewer than two first-half goals at 2.7, under 2.5 goals at 4 and the match to end level at 10 carry value.

Context

Antigua arrive on one of the longest winless runs either side has produced in this record.
The run covers 15 competitive matches from 18 November 2023 to 23 September 2026, and Antigua average 0.4 goals scored per game across it, so a comfortable home win is not the default expectation. Their matches have mostly been settled by the opponent scoring, which fits a low-scoring game rather than a rout in either direction.
- Antigua and Barbuda: 0 wins, 3 draws, 12 defeats across 15 competitive matches tracked from 18 November 2023 to 23 September 2026, averaging 0.4 goals scored per game.
Anguilla's competitive record contains no drawn match at all, which is unusual for a side on this kind of losing run.
Eight matches is a small sample and includes heavy defeats, but the absence of a draw is a real feature of the record and is relevant to a fixture where a level scoreline is one of the plausible outcomes. The two wins show Anguilla can get a result, even though they have not yet drawn a competitive match.
- Anguilla competitive record, 10 October 2024 to 29 March 2026: 8 matches, 2 wins, 0 draws, 6 defeats.
Anguilla's most recent competitive away match ended in a four-goal defeat.
Anguilla were three goals down at the interval, so the game was gone well before the hour. It is a reminder that this fixture can open up in one direction, which runs against the expectation of a tight, low-scoring match.
- Anguilla lost 0-4 away to the British Virgin Islands on 29 March 2026, trailing 0-3 at half-time.
Antigua come into this game on the back of a narrow away defeat three days earlier.
Antigua managed two shots on target and three corners while conceding eight, so they were not overrun on the ball but again created very little. It is the freshest evidence available on the home side and points toward another match with few goals.
- Antigua and Barbuda lost 0-1 away to Aruba on 23 September 2026 in the CONCACAF Nations League, with 9 shots to 13, 2 shots on target to 5 and 3 corners to 8.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Antigua have faced far stronger opposition and are at home, while Anguilla's only competitive wins came against Bahamas and they were beaten 4-0 by both the British Virgin Islands and Cayman Islands.
- Antigua: 0 wins, 3 draws, 12 defeats in 15 competitive matches, 0.4 goals scored per game
- Anguilla: 2 wins in 8 competitive matches, both against Bahamas, 2.75 goals conceded per game
- Antigua home record: 3 draws, 5 defeats and 0.5 goals per game in 8 home matches
- Anguilla have conceded 19 goals in their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAntigua and BarbudaEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 9.00
The read
Antigua's first halves are usually goalless and neither side scores early with any regularity.
- Antigua's first halves average 0.07 scored and 1.0 conceded across 15 matches
- Anguilla have scored 2 first-half goals in their last six competitive matches
- Antigua were level at half-time in 4 of their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Anguilla concede after the break almost every time and Antigua's goals come more often in the second half.
- Antigua score 0.33 and concede 0.88 second-half goals per home match
- Anguilla concede 1.71 second-half goals per competitive match
- Anguilla conceded 9 second-half goals in their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostAntigua and BarbudaEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Antigua have faced far stronger opposition and are at home, while Anguilla's only competitive wins came against Bahamas and they were beaten 4-0 by both the British Virgin Islands and Cayman Islands. Both teams score rarely and Antigua's recent matches have been tight and low-scoring, which keeps a stalemate plausible.
- Antigua: 0 wins, 3 draws, 12 defeats in 15 competitive matches, 0.4 goals scored per game
- Anguilla: 2 wins in 8 competitive matches, both against Bahamas, 2.75 goals conceded per game
- Three of Antigua's 15 competitive matches were draws
- Antigua have scored 1 goal in their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAntigua and Barbuda or DrawEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Antigua almost never score before half-time, but Anguilla concede early regularly, which gives a narrow edge for the home side. Antigua's first halves are usually goalless and neither side scores early with any regularity.
- Antigua have scored 1 first-half goal in 15 competitive matches (0.07 per game)
- Anguilla concede 1.38 first-half goals per competitive match
- Antigua's first halves average 0.07 scored and 1.0 conceded across 15 matches
- Anguilla have scored 2 first-half goals in their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAntigua and Barbuda or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 4.00
The read
Neither side scores reliably and Antigua's recent matches have been low-scoring, which favours the lower total.
- Antigua average 0.4 goals scored per competitive match over 15 matches
- Antigua's last six competitive matches contained 9 goals in total
- Anguilla have scored 3 goals in 8 competitive matches
- Anguilla failed to score in 5 of their 8 competitive matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
At least one side has been shut out in most of these teams' recent matches, making a one-sided scoreline the likelier shape.
- Antigua scored in 5 of their 15 competitive matches
- Anguilla scored in 3 of their 8 competitive matches
- Anguilla failed to score in 5 of their 8 competitive matches
- Antigua have scored 1 goal in their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Antigua have managed very few goals even at home, so keeping them to one or none is the likelier outcome.
- Antigua have scored 3 goals in 8 home matches
- Antigua average 0.4 goals per competitive match over 15 matches
- Antigua have scored 1 goal in their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostAntigua and Barbuda under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Anguilla's goals have come almost entirely against Bahamas and they rarely score against other island teams.
- Anguilla scored 6 goals in 8 competitive matches, but only 1 against teams other than Bahamas
- Anguilla were shut out by British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, El Salvador and St Vincent
- Anguilla failed to score in 5 of their 8 competitive matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAnguilla under 1.5Estimated chance86%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Antigua concede in the large majority of their matches, so a shutout is not the likelier outcome.
- Antigua have kept 2 clean sheets in 15 competitive matches
- Antigua average 2.27 goals conceded per competitive match
- Anguilla scored 6 goals in 8 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAnguilla to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Anguilla have conceded in every competitive match on record, so Antigua are likely to score at least once.
- Anguilla have conceded in all 8 competitive matches
- Anguilla average 2.75 goals conceded per competitive match
- Anguilla conceded 19 goals in their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAntigua and Barbuda to scoreEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.70
The read
Both teams rarely score before half-time, so the first-half total is usually low.
- Antigua's last six competitive first halves produced 3 goals in total
- Antigua have scored 1 first-half goal in 15 competitive matches
- Anguilla have scored 2 first-half goals in their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Antigua's recent second halves have been quiet at both ends, which keeps the second-half total low.
- Antigua's last six competitive second halves produced 6 goals in total
- Antigua have scored 1 second-half goal in their last six matches
- Antigua's second halves average 1.6 goals in total across 15 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams spend long spells defending and give up plenty of corners, so the combined count should clear this line.
- Antigua's matches average 11.2 corners in total across 13 matches with data
- Anguilla's matches average 10.5 corners in total across 4 matches with data
- Antigua's most recent match contained 11 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 6.5Estimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede large shot volumes, so the combined total is likely to sit well above this line.
- Antigua's matches average 26.9 shots in total across 13 matches with data
- Anguilla's matches average 27.0 shots in total across 7 matches with data
- Antigua's most recent match contained 22 shots in total
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 13.5Estimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams give up many shots on target, so the combined figure should clear this low line comfortably.
- Antigua's matches average 10.9 shots on target in total across 13 matches with data
- Anguilla's matches average 11.4 shots on target in total across 7 matches with data
- Antigua's most recent match contained 7 shots on target in total
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance93%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W6-0Antigua and BarbudavAnguillaSep 3, 2014CAR

6 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Antigua and Barbuda

L0-1ArubaSep 23CON

L1-4GuyanaNov 18CON

D0-0ArubaNov 12CON

L0-2HondurasJun 11WOR

L0-1CubaJun 6WOR

D0-0DominicaNov 19CON

L1-2BermudaNov 16CON

L0-5Dominican RepublicOct 15CON

L0-5Dominican RepublicOct 12CON

L0-1BermudaSep 10CON

L1-2DominicaSep 7CON

L0-1Cayman IslandsJun 8WOR

D1-1BermudaJun 5WOR

L0-6GuyanaNov 22CON

L2-3Puerto RicoNov 18CON

Anguilla

L0-1DominicaSep 21FRI

L0-4British Virgin IslandsMar 29CON

W3-1BahamasMar 26CON

L0-4Cayman IslandsNov 16CON

W2-1BahamasNov 12CON

W2-1Saint MartinNov 9FRI

L0-3El SalvadorJun 7WOR

L0-6St. Vincent / GrenadinesJun 4WOR

L0-2GrenadaMay 31FRI

L2-4St. Kitts and NevisMay 24FRI

L1-2Saint MartinMay 24FRI

W1-0British Virgin IslandsApr 20FRI

D0-0British Virgin IslandsApr 17FRI

L1-2Turks and Caicos IslandsOct 13CON

L0-1BelizeOct 10CON

Squad & Injuries

Antigua and Barbuda

22 available

Attackers3

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Anguilla

25 available

Attackers5

Midfielders7

Defenders11

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 1.5 goals in 1st half

Under 2.5

Draw

No

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 8 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Antigua and Barbuda

Anguilla

Squad & Injuries

Antigua and Barbuda

Anguilla