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Predictions graded

Salford City1Sheffield Wednesday2

HT 1–0Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–940%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 19–5On targetOn target 7–5CornersCorners 6–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 15:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Salford's home games have been tight and low-scoring, and Sheffield Wednesday arrive a division higher with three away wins behind them.

The likelier picture is a close tie, with Salford's goals tending to come after half-time. Under 2.5 goals at 2.4, at least one team kept off the scoresheet at 2.5 and the half-time draw at 2.4 are the quoted prices that offer something; Wednesday to win at 2.1 and either team to win at 1.25 do not.

Context

Salford's home split is the most settled evidence in this tie: five matches, four wins, one defeat and 0.4 goals conceded per home game.
Salford have made home matches low-scoring and have needed the second half to score, averaging 1.2 goals after the break while conceding 0.4 per home game. It is the profile of a side that stays in games and strikes late rather than one that starts quickly.
- Five home competitive matches, 23 April to 19 September 2026: 4W-0D-1L, three clean sheets, 0.4 goals conceded per home match
- Same five-match home sample: 0.0 first-half goals for and 1.2 second-half goals for per home match
The away split covers only three matches, so it records a short run rather than a settled away profile.
Two goals per away game is a real threat to any low-scoring read on this tie, and the 1.0 goals conceded per away match means Sheffield Wednesday have not kept a clean sheet on the road in the sample.
- Three away competitive matches, 15 August to 5 September 2026: 3W-0D-0L, 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away match
- No away clean sheet across those three matches
That Bromley result is the high point of Sheffield Wednesday's tracked record and shows how quickly a game can get away from opponents.
Sheffield Wednesday's scoring ceiling is high, which is the clearest argument against expecting a low-scoring tie, though the 7-2 came at home against a League One opponent rather than on their travels.
- 29 August 2026, League One: Sheffield Wednesday 7-2 Bromley, with 29 shots and 15 shots on target

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.10
The read
Sheffield Wednesday play a division higher and have the stronger scoring and defensive record, though Salford's home form keeps this close.
- Sheffield Wednesday: 6W-2D-2L in 10 competitive matches, 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game
- Salford City: 5W-2D-4L in League Two, 1.09 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per competitive match
- Salford at home: 4W-0D-1L, three clean sheets, 0.4 goals conceded per home match
- Sheffield Wednesday away: 3W-0D-0L, scoring two goals in each of those three matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSheffield WednesdayEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Salford's home first halves have produced almost no goals, making a level half-time score the most likely outcome.
- Salford have scored 0 first-half goals across five home matches
- Salford concede 0.2 first-half goals per home match
- Sheffield Wednesday average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.4 against per competitive match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Salford do all their home scoring after the break, making them the most likely second-half winner.
- Salford score 1.2 second-half goals and concede 0.2 per home match
- All six of Salford's home goals this season came in the second half
- Sheffield Wednesday concede 0.33 second-half goals per away match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSalford CityEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Sheffield Wednesday play a division higher and have the stronger scoring and defensive record, though Salford's home form keeps this close. Salford have been hard to beat and rarely concede at home, which gives them a real chance against a higher-division side.
- Sheffield Wednesday: 6W-2D-2L in 10 competitive matches, 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game
- Salford City: 5W-2D-4L in League Two, 1.09 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per competitive match
- Salford at home: 4W-0D-1L, three clean sheets, two goals conceded in five home matches
- Salford overall: 1.09 scored and 1.18 conceded per competitive match
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSalford City or Sheffield WednesdayEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Salford's home first halves have produced almost no goals, making a level half-time score the most likely outcome. Sheffield Wednesday start away matches quickly, while Salford have yet to score before the break at home.
- Salford have scored 0 first-half goals across five home matches
- Salford concede 0.2 first-half goals per home match
- Sheffield Wednesday score 1.33 first-half goals per away match and concede 0.67
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Sheffield WednesdayEstimated chance77%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Salford's home matches have been tight and low scoring, and Sheffield Wednesday concede little, pointing to fewer than three goals.
- Salford home matches average 1.6 total goals (1.2 for, 0.4 against)
- Salford overall average 1.09 scored and 1.18 conceded per match
- Sheffield Wednesday average 1.6 scored and 0.9 conceded across 10 competitive matches
- Salford have kept three clean sheets in five home matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Salford's home defence concedes rarely, so one team being kept out is the likelier outcome.
- Salford have kept three clean sheets in five home matches and conceded in only two
- Sheffield Wednesday failed to score in 4 of 10 competitive matches
- Salford concede 0.4 goals per home match
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sheffield Wednesday have found the net in every away game, so Salford being kept clean is unlikely.
- Sheffield Wednesday have scored in all three away matches
- Sheffield Wednesday average 1.6 goals per competitive match
- Salford have conceded in 2 of 5 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSheffield Wednesday to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Salford score in most home matches, so Sheffield Wednesday keeping a clean sheet is unlikely.
- Salford scored in 4 of 5 home matches
- Salford average 1.2 goals per home match
- Sheffield Wednesday have no away clean sheet in three attempts
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSalford City to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Salford's home first halves are quiet, but Sheffield Wednesday's early away scoring makes at least one first-half goal more likely than not.
- Salford home first halves have produced 1 goal in 5 matches (0 for, 0.2 against)
- Sheffield Wednesday average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.4 against per competitive match
- Sheffield Wednesday average 1.33 first-half goals scored per away match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team's second halves average two goals, so fewer than two after the break is the safer side.
- Salford home second halves average 1.4 total goals
- Sheffield Wednesday away second halves average 1.0 total goal
- Salford concede 0.2 second-half goals per home match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' venue splits point to a high corner count, with Salford especially busy at home.
- Salford home matches average 11.0 corners (7.8 for, 3.2 against)
- Sheffield Wednesday away matches average 12.3 corners (7.3 for, 5.0 against)
- Sheffield Wednesday average 6.0 corners per competitive match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 10.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shot volumes at both teams' relevant venues sit around this line, making it close to even.
- Salford home matches average 27.0 total shots (16.0 for, 11.0 against)
- Sheffield Wednesday away matches average 29.0 total shots (14.3 for, 14.7 against)
- Overall competitive averages: Salford 25.7, Sheffield Wednesday 26.8
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 27.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sheffield Wednesday's away games have produced plenty of on-target shots, pushing the combined figure above the line.
- Sheffield Wednesday away matches average 9.3 shots on target (5.3 for, 4.0 against)
- Sheffield Wednesday average 5.0 shots on target per competitive match
- Salford home matches average 6.8 shots on target (4.4 for, 2.4 against)
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card averages hover at or just below the line, so fewer than four is marginally likelier.
- Salford's competitive matches average 3.45 cards
- Sheffield Wednesday's competitive matches average 3.5 cards
- Sheffield Wednesday's away matches average 4.0 cards (2.33 for, 1.67 against)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance53%

Recent Form

Salford City

W1-0Swindon TownSep 19LEA

D3-3RotherhamSep 12LEA

W1-0Port ValeSep 5LEA

W2-1Newport CountySep 1LEA

L0-1ShrewsburyAug 29LEA

L0-1ChesterfieldAug 22LEA

L1-3BarnetAug 15LEA

D2-2BradfordAug 1FRI

W2-0CarlisleJul 28FRI

W3-2Dundee UtdJul 25FRI

W4-1United of ManchesterJul 18FRI

L0-3Notts CountyMay 25LEA

W2-1GrimsbyMay 10LEA

D0-0Crawley TownMay 2LEA

W2-0BromleyApr 23LEA

Sheffield Wednesday

D0-0Stockport CountySep 19LEA

D0-0WiganSep 12LEA

W2-1PeterboroughSep 5LEA

W2-1WycombeSep 1LEA

W7-2BromleyAug 29LEA

L0-2WolvesAug 25LEA

L0-1BradfordAug 20LEA

W2-1Leyton OrientAug 15LEA

W1-0BoltonAug 8LEA

L0-4OldhamAug 1FRI

D0-0Accrington STAug 1FRI

W3-2PrestonJul 18FRI

D0-0HallamJul 14FRI

L0-3West BromJul 11FRI

W2-1West BromMay 2CHA

Squad & Injuries

Salford City

28 available

Attackers4

Midfielders7

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

Sheffield Wednesday

30 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

Draw

Salford City or Sheffield Wednesday

Sheffield Wednesday

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Recent Form

Salford City

Sheffield Wednesday

Squad & Injuries

Salford City

Sheffield Wednesday