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MjallbyGAIS Goteborg

Sun 20 Sept 2026, 14:3020 Sept, 14:30

14Probabilities1Priced2Edges73%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 21:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Mjallby's poor home form against a GAIS side with two wins in ten league away games points to a tight, low-scoring afternoon.

A game short of three goals is the likeliest shape, and the draw is a live result. Fewer than three goals at 2.0 is the better of the two prices that hold up; a goalless first half at 3.2 also qualifies. Three or more goals at 1.75 and a first-half goal at 1.29 ask for more than the record supports.

Context

Both sides carry clear scoring limits — Mjallby at 0.8 goals per game across 15 competitive matches, GAIS scoring in only three of seven away matches in the window — and GAIS's listed absences of seven players are the main current factor that could shape how the game is played.

The five meetings run from October 2024 to April 2026, so they span squads that have changed since, and five matches is a small sample. Only one of them — the 3-0 cup tie — was settled by more than a single goal, which fits the low-scoring look of both teams' current records.
- 2026-04-23, Allsvenskan: GAIS 0-0 Mjallby
- 2026-03-22, Svenska Cupen: Mjallby 3-0 GAIS
- 2025-08-25, Allsvenskan: GAIS 0-2 Mjallby
- 2025-04-06 and 2024-10-26, Allsvenskan: both meetings finished 1-1
Those are two halves of a 21-game league season, and the away half is the one that travels to Mjallby, where GAIS have conceded 16 goals in ten games. It describes where GAIS have collected their points rather than a fixed trait, and it sits alongside Mjallby's own home league record of 3W 1D 6L in ten games.
- GAIS 2026 Allsvenskan, 21 played: 7W 6D 8L, 25 scored, 20 conceded, 10th
- Home split: 11 played, 5W 4D 2L, 16 scored, 4 conceded
- Away split: 10 played, 2W 2D 6L, 9 scored, 16 conceded
The same window shows 1.73 goals conceded per game and only three clean sheets, so this is a side that neither scores freely nor keeps opponents out. The blanks are frequent enough that Mjallby have also found the net in only four of their eight home matches in that stretch, which narrows the routes to a home win here.
- Tracked window 17 Jul–16 Sep 2026: 15 competitive matches, 2W 4D 9L
- Goals for 0.8 per game; goals against 1.73 per game; three clean sheets
- Mjallby found the net in 7 of those 15 matches
Mjallby managed eight shots to IFK Goteborg's 20 and only one on target against the visitors' 11, so the margin followed the shot count rather than a fluke finish. It is the clearest recent illustration of the home form that shapes this fixture, and it shows how quickly a tight first half can turn.
- 2026-09-07, Allsvenskan: Mjallby 1-4 IFK Goteborg (half-time 0-0)
- Shots 8-20; shots on target 1-11; corners 4-10

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BetBugs probabilities

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Result4 outcomes · top 73%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mjallby are at home, have not lost to GAIS in five meetings and face an away side with a poor travelling record and several absentees.
- Mjallby last 15 competitive: 2W 4D 9L, 0.8 scored and 1.73 conceded per game
- Mjallby home split: 2W 1D 5L in 8, 1.125 scored and 1.625 conceded per game
- GAIS league away record: 2W 2D 6L in 10, 9 scored and 16 conceded
- Mjallby unbeaten in the last five meetings with GAIS (2 wins, 3 draws)
BetBugs · Match WinnerMjallbyEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams do little scoring before the break, so the half-time score staying level is the single likeliest outcome.
- Mjallby matches average 1.0 first-half goals in total
- GAIS matches average 1.08 first-half goals in total
- Mjallby home first half: 0.375 scored, 0.5 conceded
- GAIS away first half: 0.57 scored, 1.0 conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mjallby are at home, have not lost to GAIS in five meetings and face an away side with a poor travelling record and several absentees. GAIS have the stronger season record and a solid defensive habit, and Mjallby's home form is weak enough to make an away win a fair outcome.
- Mjallby last 15 competitive: 2W 4D 9L, 0.8 scored and 1.73 conceded per game
- Mjallby home split: 2W 1D 5L in 8, 1.125 scored and 1.625 conceded per game
- GAIS last 13 competitive: 5W 3D 5L, 1.31 scored and 1.15 conceded per game, 6 clean sheets
- GAIS league away record: 2W 2D 6L with 9 scored and 16 conceded in 10 games
BetBugs · Double ChanceMjallby or GAIS GoteborgEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mjallby are the more likely side to lead at the break because GAIS concede a first-half goal per away game. Both teams do little scoring before the break, so the half-time score staying level is the single likeliest outcome.
- Mjallby home first half: 0.375 scored, 0.5 conceded per game
- GAIS away first half: 0.57 scored, 1.0 conceded per game
- Mjallby matches average 1.0 first-half goals in total
- GAIS matches average 1.08 first-half goals in total
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfMjallby or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals6 outcomes · top 68%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Two modest attacks and a low-scoring recent head-to-head record point to a game short of three goals.
- Mjallby have scored 0.8 goals per game across their last 15 matches
- GAIS have scored 1.31 per game, but 7 of their 17 goals came in one cup tie
- Four of the last five meetings produced two goals or fewer
- GAIS have kept six clean sheets in 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5Market price2.00Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been shut out on a regular basis, and Mjallby in particular struggle to score at home.
- Mjallby failed to score in 8 of their last 15 competitive matches
- Mjallby scored in only 4 of 8 home matches
- GAIS failed to score in 6 of 13 competitive matches and in 4 of 7 away games
- GAIS kept six clean sheets in 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mjallby's home output is low and they have been blanked in half of their home games.
- Mjallby home: 1.125 goals scored per game over 8 matches
- Mjallby failed to score in 4 of 8 home matches
- Mjallby managed one goal in each of their last two home league matches
- GAIS have kept six clean sheets in 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalMjallby under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
GAIS have a thin away scoring record and were blanked in their last two league games on the road.
- GAIS scored in only 3 of 7 away matches
- GAIS were shut out in both of their most recent league away matches
- GAIS average 3.5 shots on target per away game
- Mjallby kept two clean sheets in eight home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalGAIS Goteborg under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mjallby concede steadily at home and give up a high volume of shots on target, making a shutout less likely than not.
- Mjallby conceded in 6 of 8 home matches
- Mjallby home: 1.625 goals conceded per game
- Mjallby face 16 shots and 6.33 shots on target per home game
- GAIS scored in 3 of 7 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreGAIS Goteborg to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average about one first-half goal, so a goalless half is the less likely single outcome.
- Mjallby matches average 1.0 first-half goals in total
- GAIS matches average 1.08 first-half goals in total
- First-half goals appeared in four of GAIS's last six matches
- Mjallby home first half: 0.375 scored, 0.5 conceded per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance64%

Match stats4 outcomes · top 70%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
GAIS away games produce few corners and Mjallby's overall matches sit below the line.
- GAIS away matches average 8.33 corners in total
- Mjallby overall matches average 9.33 corners in total
- Mjallby home matches average 10.17 corners in total
- GAIS away: 4.0 corners for and 4.33 against per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot counts sit near 27 to 30 in both teams' home and away matches, above the line.
- Mjallby home: 11.8 shots for and 16.0 against, in 5 matches
- GAIS away: 13.5 shots for and 17.33 against, in 6 matches
- Mjallby overall match total: 26.1 shots, in 9 matches
- GAIS overall match total: 28.75 shots, in 12 matches
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderOver 25.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away matches average around nine shots on target combined, comfortably above the line.
- Mjallby home: 3.17 on target for and 6.33 against, in 6 matches
- GAIS away: 3.5 for and 5.67 against, in 6 matches
- Mjallby overall match total: 9.08 shots on target, in 12 matches
- GAIS overall match total: 8.75 shots on target, in 12 matches
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 7.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average roughly three and a half cards, below the 4.5 line.
- Mjallby matches average 3.42 cards in total, in 12 matches
- GAIS matches average 3.25 cards in total, in 12 matches
- Mjallby home matches average 3.67 cards in total, in 6 matches
- GAIS away matches average 3.0 cards in total, in 6 matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderUnder 4.5Estimated chance65%