Süper LigFull time

Predictions graded

Goztepe2Rizespor2

HT 1–0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–469%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 40%–60%ShotsShots 25–11On targetOn target 10–4CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Sep 2026, 00:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Rizespor's perfect 3-0-0 away record (5:1 goals) against a winless, 18th-placed Göztepe makes Draw or Rizespor the top play at 70% (edge +6pts), with the away win at 2.90 a secondary value pick at 44% versus 34.5% implied.

Avoid Göztepe at home and the short away clean-sheet/win-to-nil lines, which the model rates well below their implied prices.

Context

Göztepe are 18th in the Süper Lig with 2 points from five matches, and their home record shows two defeats in two games with 2 goals scored and 5 conceded. Rizespor are 5th with 9 points, and their away record shows three wins from three with 5 scored and 1 conceded.
The table gap is 7 points, and Göztepe's home form is the weakest part of their season so far. Rizespor have taken all 9 of their points on the road, which makes this a match where the away side's strongest split meets the home side's weakest. Göztepe's two home defeats came with five goals conceded, so the home side's defensive record at their own ground is the clearest concern.
- Göztepe are 18th with 2 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses).
- Göztepe's home record is 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, with 2 goals scored and 5 conceded.
- Rizespor are 5th with 9 points and an away record of 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, with 5 goals scored and 1 conceded.
Göztepe's missing list includes defenders Allan Godoi and N. Sonko Sundberg, goalkeeper L. Gugeshashvili, and I. Sabra with an ankle injury. Rizespor are missing midfielder V. Mihaila to a red-card suspension and K. Alikulov to a knee injury.
Göztepe's absences fall mostly in defence and goal, which matters because they have already conceded 13 goals in five league games. Rizespor lose a midfielder to suspension, but their away record of one goal conceded in three games suggests the defensive structure has been reliable on the road. The main question is whether Göztepe's replacement defenders can reduce the goals conceded at home.
- Göztepe defenders Allan Godoi and N. Sonko Sundberg are listed as missing the fixture.
- Göztepe goalkeeper L. Gugeshashvili is listed as missing the fixture with an injury.
- Rizespor midfielder V. Mihaila is missing through a red-card suspension.
- Rizespor's K. Alikulov is missing with a knee injury.
Göztepe have conceded 13 goals in five Süper Lig matches, an average of 2.6 per game. Rizespor have conceded 4 goals in five matches, and only 1 in three away games.
Göztepe's 4-2 home defeat to Gaziantep FK on 7 September included four first-half goals conceded, showing the defence can be opened up early. Rizespor's away record of one goal conceded in three games gives them a strong base to protect. If Göztepe concede early again, the match could follow the pattern of their home defeats.
- Göztepe have conceded 13 goals in 5 league matches, an average of 2.6 per game.
- Göztepe lost 4-2 at home to Gaziantep FK on 7 September 2026, conceding four first-half goals.
- Rizespor have conceded 1 goal in 3 away league matches.
The last four Süper Lig meetings between Göztepe and Rizespor all had at least four goals. Göztepe won 3-1 at home in January 2026, Rizespor won 3-0 at home in August 2025, Rizespor won 6-3 at home in May 2025, and Göztepe won 3-0 at home in December 2024.
The recent head-to-head record shows both teams scoring and conceding in these fixtures, with the home side winning the last two meetings at Göztepe. That pattern fits Göztepe's current defensive problems and Rizespor's ability to score away from home. The sample is small, but the repeated high scores suggest this match could follow a similar open pattern.
- Göztepe beat Rizespor 3-1 at home on 19 January 2026.
- Rizespor beat Göztepe 3-0 at home on 10 August 2025.
- Rizespor beat Göztepe 6-3 at home on 18 May 2025.
- Göztepe beat Rizespor 3-0 at home on 22 December 2024.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Structural away edge is the strongest signal: Rizespor have a perfect 3-0-0 away record with 5:1 goals while Göztepe have lost both home league games, and motivation/stakes favour the visitors who sit 5th against a bottom-placed side.
- Rizespor away record 2026/27: 3 wins from 3, 5 goals scored, 1 conceded (Süper Lig, 5 rounds)
- Göztepe home record 2026/27: 0 wins, 2 losses, 2 scored, 5 conceded in 2 home games
- Göztepe league form DLLLD, 18th, 2 points from 5; Rizespor WLWLW, 5th, 9 points
- H2H last 5: Göztepe won 3, Rizespor won 2, but Rizespor won the most recent meeting 3-1 at Göztepe (19 Jan 2026)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRizesporEstimated chance44%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Rizespor's flawless away form with Göztepe's winless league start and leaky home defence makes the draw-or-away double chance the safest match-result play.
- Rizespor unbeaten away in 2026/27 (3 wins, 5:1 goals) and 5th with 9 points
- Göztepe winless in 5 league games (0W 2D 3L), 18th, 2 points
- Göztepe have drawn 2 of 5 league matches and 2 of their last 5 across competitions
- Göztepe home: 0 wins in 2, 2:5 goals conceded at home
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or RizesporEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rizespor's strong first-half defensive record and Göztepe's mixed half-time results point to a level scoreline at the break, though confidence is limited.
- Göztepe half-time results last 5 league games: W, L, D, D, L
- Rizespor half-time results last 5 league games: W, D, W, L, D
- Rizespor led at half-time in 40% of matches, Göztepe in 60%
- Rizespor conceded only 0.3 first-half goals per game (last 15)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rizespor's away resilience and Göztepe's tendency to fade at home give the visitors a slight second-half edge, but the signal is weak.
- Rizespor away record 3-0-0 with 5:1 goals, suggesting late-game control on the road
- Göztepe conceded 13 goals in 5 league games, many after the break
- Göztepe lost 2 of 2 home league games, conceding 5 goals
- Rizespor's last 5 league results: W,L,W,L,W — strong response pattern
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonRizesporEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rizespor's away dominance and Göztepe's habit of dropping points at home support a draw-or-away outcome in both halves, though the combined market is volatile.
- Rizespor led at half-time in 40% of matches and won 3 of 3 away games
- Göztepe led at half-time in 60% but lost 2 of 2 home games
- Göztepe half-time results last 5: W,L,D,D,L
- Rizespor half-time results last 5: W,D,W,L,D
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw or Rizespor / Draw or RizesporEstimated chance40%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks are productive and both defences leaky, with Göztepe scoring regularly despite poor results and Rizespor conceding in most recent league games, so both teams finding the net is well supported.
- Göztepe average 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game (last 15)
- Rizespor average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded per game (last 15)
- Göztepe have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches (2,2,2,0,3)
- Rizespor scored in 3 of their last 5 league matches and conceded in 4 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Göztepe's games are consistently high-scoring and the recent H2H series has been goal-heavy, giving a solid case for over 2.5 despite Rizespor's tighter away numbers.
- Göztepe last 5 league games produced 4,6,5,1,6 goals (avg 4.4)
- Göztepe average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded per game over last 15
- Rizespor last 5 league games produced 2,1,3,2,1 goals
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4,3,9,3,6 goals — all but one over 2.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score early at meaningful rates and Göztepe's high first-half scoring/conceding profile makes at least one first-half goal likely.
- Göztepe average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded (last 15)
- Rizespor average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded (last 15)
- Göztepe led at half-time in 60% of matches; Rizespor trailed at half-time in only 13%
- Göztepe conceded 4 first-half goals in one recent match vs Gaziantep FK
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Göztepe's consistent scoring output, even in defeat, makes a Rizespor away clean sheet unlikely.
- Göztepe scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches (2,2,2,0,3)
- Göztepe average 1.7 goals scored per game (last 15)
- Rizespor conceded in 4 of their last 5 league matches
- Rizespor away record shows 1 goal conceded in 3 away games, but Göztepe's home scoring is consistent
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGoztepe to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Göztepe's regular scoring makes a Rizespor win-to-nil improbable despite the visitors' strong away defensive numbers.
- Göztepe scored in 4 of last 5 league games
- Göztepe average 1.7 goals per game over last 15
- Rizespor conceded in 4 of their last 5 league matches
- Rizespor's away clean sheet record is strong (1 conceded in 3) but faces a scoring home side
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance74%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate around five corners per game and recent matches show volatile but often high corner counts, supporting a modest over line.
- Göztepe average 5.1 corners per game (last 15)
- Rizespor average 5.3 corners per game (last 15)
- Göztepe recent matches show corner counts of 3,8,2,6,8
- Rizespor recent matches show corner counts of 2,8,0,10,7
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Göztepe's high foul and card counts combined with Rizespor's red-card tendency make a busy disciplinary game likely.
- Göztepe average 2.6 yellow cards and 0.7 red cards per game (last 15)
- Rizespor average 2.0 yellow cards and 1.0 red cards per game (last 15)
- Göztepe committed 17 fouls per game on average; Rizespor 11.6
- Recent Göztepe matches featured 3,4,2,3,4 yellow cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around five shots on target, so a combined line near nine is a reasonable but low-confidence call.
- Göztepe average 5.1 shots on target per game (last 15)
- Rizespor average 4.8 shots on target per game (last 15)
- Göztepe recent shots on target: 4,4,4,6,7
- Rizespor recent shots on target: 4,5,4,8,5
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance56%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 43% leaves no cushion vs our 34% estimate; the price already reflects home advantage that Göztepe's 0W-2L home record does not support.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L3-1GöztepevRizesporJan 19, 2026SÜP

W0-3RizesporvGöztepeAug 10, 2025SÜP

L6-3RizesporvGöztepeMay 18, 2025SÜP

L3-0GöztepevRizesporDec 22, 2024SÜP

D3-3GöztepevRizesporMay 16, 20231.

5 goals/game avg

League Table

Süper Lig 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	Goztepe Relegation - 1. Lig	5	0	2	3	9-13	2	DLLLD
5	Rizespor	5	3	0	2	5-4	9	WLWLW

7pt gap between teamsGoztepe in relegation zone

Recent Form

Goztepe

D2-2AlanyasporSep 12SÜP

L2-4Gaziantep FKSep 7SÜP

L2-3GalatasarayAug 29SÜP

L0-1Gençlerbirliği S.K.Aug 23SÜP

D3-3SamsunsporAug 17SÜP

W2-1TrabzonsporAug 8FRI

D1-1RudesJul 26FRI

W2-1Zorya LuhanskJul 23FRI

W2-1Al-DhafraJul 19FRI

W2-0LNZ CherkasyJul 16FRI

W2-0HNK GoricaJul 13FRI

L0-3SamsunsporMay 16SÜP

W2-1Gaziantep FKMay 9SÜP

D1-1TrabzonsporMay 2SÜP

W2-0AntalyasporApr 25SÜP

Rizespor

W2-0EyüpsporSep 12SÜP

L0-1AlanyasporSep 7SÜP

W2-1Gaziantep FKAug 29SÜP

L0-2SamsunsporAug 22SÜP

W1-0KonyasporAug 15SÜP

W2-1Pyramids FCAug 8FRI

D0-0AbhaJul 31FRI

L1-2Hull CityJul 28FRI

W3-1NK OsijekJul 25FRI

D0-0Erzurumspor FKJul 17FRI

W3-0Dinamo BatumiJul 15FRI

D2-2BeşiktaşMay 15SÜP

L0-4EyüpsporMay 9SÜP

W3-2KonyasporMay 1SÜP

L0-2KayserisporApr 25SÜP

Squad & Injuries

Goztepe

14 out

Attackers2/7

×#17

Midfielders2/9

×#20

Defenders6/6

×#3

×#23

×#20

×#3

×#23

×#20

Goalkeeper2/3

×#25

#3 Allan Godoi — Injury

#23 F. Bayir — Inactive

#17 G. Bayrakdar — Inactive

#25 L. Gugeshashvili — Injury

I. Sabra — Ankle Injury

#20 N. Sonko Sundberg — Inactive

#20 N. Miroshi — Inactive

#3 Allan Godoi — Injury

#23 F. Bayir — Inactive

#17 G. Bayrakdar — Inactive

#25 L. Gugeshashvili — Injury

I. Sabra — Ankle Injury

#20 N. Sonko Sundberg — Inactive

#20 N. Miroshi — Inactive

Rizespor

4 out

Attackers6

Midfielders2/10

×#7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

K. Alikulov — Knee Injury

#7 V. Mihaila — Red Card

K. Alikulov — Knee Injury

#7 V. Mihaila — Red Card

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Rizespor

Draw or Rizespor

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Goztepe to score

No

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Goztepe to score

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Goztepe

Rizespor

Squad & Injuries

Goztepe

Rizespor