Deportivo La Guaira2Deportivo Tachira4

HT 1–3Sun 20 Sept 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 00:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Táchira are the justified away lean — better Clausura away output, a confirmed right-flank creation route, and a La Guaira side that has lost three of five at home and now plays behind closed doors.

The value sits on Táchira to win at 2.90 and Over 2.5 goals at 2.00, while the home win at 2.30 and Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.36 are overpriced traps.

Context

Deportivo Tachira are second in the Primera División annual table on 44 points from 23 games, while Deportivo La Guaira are third on 43 points from the same number of matches. The top two places lead to Copa Libertadores qualification, and the gap to leaders Metropolitanos is six points for Tachira and seven for La Guaira.
Because the teams are separated by a single point, this match can swap their positions in the annual table. Tachira's 13 wins and 37 goals scored show they have been the stronger side over the season, but La Guaira have conceded only 18 goals in 23 games, the better defensive record of the two. A La Guaira win would move them above Tachira, while a Tachira win would extend their cushion in the second qualification place.
- Deportivo Tachira are 2nd in the annual table with 44 points from 23 matches (13 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses).
- Deportivo La Guaira are 3rd with 43 points from 23 matches (12 wins, 7 draws, 4 losses).
- The gap to leaders Metropolitanos FC is six points for Tachira and seven for La Guaira.
Deportivo La Guaira's last four Primera División matches were a 1-0 loss at Carabobo on 15 September, a 2-0 home loss to UCV on 12 September, a 2-0 home win over Anzoátegui on 6 September and a 1-1 draw at Puerto Cabello on 3 September.
The two home defeats in that run are the clearest concern, because La Guaira now host the team directly above them. Their season-long defensive record of 18 goals conceded in 23 games is stronger than Tachira's 24, so the recent results may reflect a short dip rather than a lasting change. The sample is only four matches, which limits how much weight it should carry.
- 15 September 2026: La Guaira lost 1-0 away to Carabobo FC.
- 12 September 2026: La Guaira lost 2-0 at home to UCV.
- 6 September 2026: La Guaira beat Anzoátegui FC 2-0 at home.
La Guaira's official match notice confirms the Olímpico de la UCV will host this Clausura matchday 11 fixture without spectators, with Táchira's own pre-match announcement independently confirming the same venue and 20:00 local kickoff.
The confirmed absence of a crowd removes the usual home support from La Guaira's match environment, so the setting itself differs from a standard home fixture. The claim establishes only that change in conditions, not how either team will perform under it.
- La Guaira’s official notice lists Deportivo Táchira, the Olímpico de la UCV, 20:00 local time and says the match is behind closed doors.
- Táchira’s official pre-match announcement independently confirms the Olímpico de la UCV venue and 20:00 local kickoff.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 00:02 · Europe/Bucharest
Deportivo Tachira have scored 20 goals in 10 Clausura matches, with 12 of those goals coming in five away games. Their season average is 1.7 goals per match, and they have scored three or more in three of their last six league outings.
Tachira's away scoring in the Clausura is notable because La Guaira have conceded only 18 goals in 23 annual-table matches, so this is a meeting between a strong recent attack and a solid season-long defence. Tachira's 5-2 win at Zamora on 2 September and 3-1 win at Trujillanos on 9 August show they can score away from home, though both opponents sit in the bottom half of the table.
- Tachira have scored 20 goals in 10 Clausura matches, an average of 2.0 per game.
- Tachira's Clausura away record is 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses with 12 goals scored in 5 games.
- 2 September 2026: Tachira won 5-2 away at Zamora FC.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tachira's superior Clausura away scoring output (12 goals in 5) and La Guaira's poor recent home form (3 home losses in last 5 league games) give the visitors a structural edge, reinforced by H2H dominance.
- Tachira rank 2 in Clausura with 20 pts from 10 (6W-2D-2L), 20 goals scored vs La Guaira's 19
- Tachira away record in Clausura: 3W-0D-2L, 12 goals scored in 5 away games
- La Guaira last 5 league matches: L-L-W-D-L, including home defeats to UCV (0-2) and Estudiantes Merida (1-2)
- H2H last 5: Tachira won 3 of 5, including 2-1 at home vs La Guaira in April 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDeportivo TachiraEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tachira's consistent Clausura form (only 2 losses in 10) combined with La Guaira's vulnerability at home (3 home defeats in 5) makes the draw-or-away double chance the safer play.
- Tachira Clausura form DLWWD with only 2 losses in 10 matches
- La Guaira Clausura home record: 2W-0D-3L, losing 3 of 5 home games
- Tachira have lost just 2 of their last 10 Clausura matches
- H2H last 5: 3 Tachira wins, 1 draw, 1 La Guaira win
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDeportivo Tachira or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams show low first-half leading rates (33% each) and Tachira's recent first halves have been predominantly level, making the half-time draw the most likely outcome.
- La Guaira leading at HT in only 33% of matches; trailing 33%
- Tachira leading at HT in 33% of matches; trailing only 13%
- Tachira's last 5 first-half results: L, D, D, W, D — 3 draws
- La Guaira's last 5 first-half results: D, L, W, W, L — mixed
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tachira's tendency to score the majority of their goals after the break, combined with La Guaira's late-game defensive vulnerabilities, gives the visitors a second-half edge.
- Tachira score 1.1 of their 1.7 goals per game in the second half (65%)
- La Guaira concede 0.7 of their 1.4 goals per game in the second half
- Tachira's 71st-minute equaliser vs Puerto Cabello shows late-game scoring ability
- La Guaira have conceded late goals in 3 of their last 5 league matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDeportivo TachiraEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tachira's strong first-half resilience (trailing only 13% of the time) and La Guaira's low first-half leading rate make the draw-or-away first-half double chance highly probable.
- Tachira trailing at HT in only 13% of matches — strong first-half resilience
- La Guaira leading at HT in only 33% of matches
- Tachira's last 5 first-half results: L, D, D, W, D — only 1 loss
- La Guaira's last 5 first-half results: D, L, W, W, L — 2 losses
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Deportivo TachiraEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tachira's strong first-half resilience and overall Clausura form make a draw-to-away or away-to-draw HT/FT double the most plausible combination.
- Tachira leading at HT in 33% of matches and trailing in only 13%
- Tachira's Clausura form DLWWD with only 2 losses in 10
- La Guaira's home record in Clausura: 2W-0D-3L
- H2H last 5: Tachira won 3 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw or Deportivo Tachira / Deportivo Tachira or DrawEstimated chance35%

Goals6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' goal averages (3.0 and 2.8 combined) and H2H history of high-scoring encounters support the over, though La Guaira's recent defensive improvement adds uncertainty.
- La Guaira recent matches average 3.0 total goals (1.6 scored, 1.4 conceded per game)
- Tachira recent matches average 2.8 total goals (1.7 scored, 1.1 conceded per game)
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 of 5 produced 3+ goals (3-2, 3-1, 2-1)
- La Guaira's last 5 league games produced 2,2,2,3,3 goals — trending upward
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in recent matches and H2H history shows both teams scoring in 4 of 5 meetings, supported by Tachira's confirmed right-side attacking threat.
- La Guaira scored in 4 of last 5 league matches (1,2,1,4,6 goals)
- Tachira scored in 8 of last 10 Clausura matches, averaging 2.0 goals per game
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5 meetings
- Tachira's right-flank combination (Alfonzo-Sosa-Adamo) is a confirmed current creation route
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average under 1.0 first-half goals each, and recent first-half scorelines show low-scoring openings, making under 1.5 first-half goals the value play.
- La Guaira first-half goals average: 0.9 scored, 0.7 conceded per game
- Tachira first-half goals average: 0.6 scored, 0.3 conceded per game
- Tachira's last 5 matches: first-half scores were 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-0
- La Guaira's last 5: first-half scores were 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-0, 0-1
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tachira's consistent scoring record (8 of 10 Clausura matches) and La Guaira's poor clean sheet rate make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- La Guaira have kept clean sheets in only 2 of their last 10 league matches
- Tachira scored in 8 of their last 10 Clausura matches
- Tachira average 2.0 goals per game in the Clausura
- H2H last 5: Tachira scored in all 5 meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDeportivo Tachira to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
La Guaira's consistent scoring form (4 of last 5 matches) and Tachira's moderate clean sheet rate make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Tachira kept clean sheets in only 3 of their last 10 Clausura matches
- La Guaira scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches
- La Guaira average 1.6 goals per game
- H2H last 5: La Guaira scored in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDeportivo La Guaira to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tachira's low clean sheet rate (30% in Clausura) combined with La Guaira's consistent scoring makes a Tachira win-to-nil highly improbable.
- Tachira kept clean sheets in only 3 of 10 Clausura matches (30%)
- La Guaira scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches
- La Guaira average 1.6 goals per game at home and away
- H2H last 5: La Guaira scored in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
La Guaira's recent scoring dip (1.0 goals per game in last 5) against Tachira's solid defense makes under 1.5 home goals the more likely outcome despite Tachira's leaky away record.
- La Guaira average 1.6 goals per game but only 1.0 in their last 5 league matches
- La Guaira scored 0,0,2,1,1 in their last 5 league matches
- Tachira concede only 1.1 goals per game
- Tachira's away record in Clausura: 12 goals conceded in 5 away games (2.4 per game)
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostDeportivo La Guaira under 1.5Estimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tachira's strong away scoring record in the Clausura (2.4 goals per game) and La Guaira's moderate defensive record make over 1.5 away goals a reasonable play.
- Tachira average 1.7 goals per game, 2.0 in the Clausura
- Tachira scored 2+ goals in 5 of their last 10 matches
- La Guaira concede 1.4 goals per game
- Tachira's away record in Clausura: 12 goals in 5 away games (2.4 per game)
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonDeportivo Tachira over 1.5Estimated chance40%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 43% vs our 35% estimate; the price overrates a home side that has lost 3 of 5 at home and now plays without crowd support.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W2-3Deportivo Tachira FCvDeportivo La GuairaApr 10, 2026PRI

W3-1Deportivo La GuairavDeportivo Tachira FCAug 17, 2025PRI

D1-1Deportivo Tachira FCvDeportivo La GuairaMar 22, 2025SUP

L2-1Deportivo Tachira FCvDeportivo La GuairaMar 9, 2025PRI

L1-0Deportivo Tachira FCvDeportivo La GuairaOct 19, 2024PRI

3 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Deportivo La Guaira Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)	23	12	7	4	34-18	43	LLWDL
2	Deportivo Tachira Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)	23	13	5	5	37-24	44	DLWWD