Brinje Grosuplje2Radomlje1

HT 0–1Sun 20 Sept 2026, 18:15 Predictions graded

Predictions12–286%

Edges9–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 05:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Brinje Grosuplje vs Radomlje profiles as a high-scoring, low-clean-sheet game, but most short prices already reflect that.

The best value is Total Goals Home Over 1.5 at 1.95 (model 60% vs implied 51.3%), while Double Chance Brinje-or-Draw (1.30), 1st Half Over 0.5 (1.29), and Total Goals Away Over 0.5 (1.30) are overpriced traps. Radomlje's confirmed return of midfielder Mihael Žaper modestly raises their floor but does not change the goal-market read.

Context

Radomlje are bottom of the 1. SNL after eight matches, with one win, two draws and five defeats. Their away record is better than their home record, with one win, one draw and one defeat on the road.
The table position matters because Radomlje have lost five of eight league matches and conceded 16 goals, the second-worst defensive record in the division. Their away form is less damaging than their home form, so this trip to Brinje Grosuplje is not automatically their weakest setting. The gap to safety is only three points, which keeps the match relevant for both teams rather than a routine mid-season fixture.
- Radomlje are 10th in the 1. SNL with 5 points from 8 matches (1 win, 2 draws, 5 defeats).
- They are 3 points behind the team above the relegation line and have a goal difference of -8.
- Their away record is 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 3 matches, with 6 goals scored and 6 conceded.
Brinje Grosuplje are 8th in the 1. SNL after nine matches, with two wins, two draws and five defeats. They have taken 4 points from 4 home matches, scoring 7 and conceding 6 at home.
Their league position is not secure: 8 points from 9 matches leaves them only three points above Radomlje at the bottom. The home record is modest but not disastrous, with one win, one draw and two defeats at home. Because the gap to the bottom is small, this match carries direct table consequences for Brinje Grosuplje rather than being a neutral mid-table game.
- Brinje Grosuplje are 8th in the 1. SNL with 8 points from 9 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats).
- They are 3 points above bottom-placed Radomlje and have a goal difference of -5.
- Their home record is 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats from 4 matches, with 7 goals scored and 6 conceded.
Brinje Grosuplje have played nine 1. SNL matches this season and conceded 17 goals, an average of 1.9 per game. Their recent league run includes defeats to Nafta, Olimpija Ljubljana, Aluminij and Mura.
The recent results show a team that concedes regularly: 2 against Nafta, 3 against Olimpija Ljubljana, 4 against Aluminij and 2 against Mura. The one exception was a 4-1 home win over Celje on 30 August. That single result shows they can score at home, but the broader pattern is a side that struggles to keep the score down. Radomlje's own defensive problems mean this match could still produce goals despite both teams' poor form.
- Brinje Grosuplje lost 1-2 at home to Nafta on 11 September 2026.
- They lost 0-3 away to Olimpija Ljubljana on 5 September 2026 and 2-4 away to Aluminij on 21 August 2026.
- Their only win in the last five league matches was 4-1 at home to Celje on 30 August 2026.
Mihael Žaper is a Radomlje midfielder who returned to the club on loan on 7 September and was named in the starting side against Maribor six days later. He has started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
His confirmed availability expands Radomlje's midfield selection options for this match, giving the side another player who has already been used in the league this season. The single start in the recent sample means his current role and match sharpness remain only partly established, so the size of his involvement at Grosuplje is uncertain.
- Radomlje announced on 7 September that Mihael Žaper had returned to the club.
- The official record for Radomlje's 13 September league match against Maribor lists Žaper in the starting team.
- M. Žaper started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 05:58 · Europe/BucharestNK Radomlje — Mihael Žaper is backwww.nk-radomlje.si · 7 Sep 2026Nogometna zveza Slovenije — Radomlje vs Maribor match recordwww.nzs.si · 13 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brinje's home venue edge and recent H2H dominance (two straight wins over Radomlje in 2026) give them a slight structural and psychological edge, though both teams' poor form keeps confidence low.
- Brinje Grosuplje home record 2026 season: 1W-1D-2L, 7 goals for / 6 against in 4 home matches
- Radomlje away record: 1W-1D-1L, 6 for / 6 against in 3 away matches, but overall rank 10 with 5 points from 8
- H2H last 3 meetings: Brinje won 2-0 away (Jul 2026) and 1-0 away in Cup (Apr 2026)
- Brinje last 5 league matches: L-L-W-L-L, conceding 2.3 goals per game average across last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBrinje GrosupljeEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brinje's home advantage plus Radomlje's relegation-zone struggles and recent H2H losses make the home-or-draw double chance the safest match-result play.
- Brinje home: 1W-1D-2L in 4 home league matches, avoiding defeat in 50% of home games
- Radomlje away: 1W-1D-1L in 3 away matches, but overall 1W-2D-5L with -8 goal difference
- H2H: Brinje unbeaten in last 2 competitive meetings (2-0, 1-0)
- Radomlje rank 10 (relegation), 5 points from 8 matches, 16 goals conceded
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBrinje Grosuplje or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently reach half-time level or trailing, and their low first-half scoring rates (0.5 each) make a level first half the most probable single outcome.
- Brinje half-time results last 5: D, L, D, W, L — 2 draws in 5
- Radomlje half-time results last 5: L, D, D, L, W — 2 draws in 5
- Brinje leading at HT 33%, trailing 47%
- Radomlje leading at HT 27%, trailing 53%
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brinje's home edge and Radomlje's tendency to trail at half-time (53%) make the home-or-draw first-half double chance the safer HT play.
- Brinje half-time results last 5: D, L, D, W, L — avoided HT defeat in 3 of 5
- Radomlje half-time results last 5: L, D, D, L, W — trailed at HT in 2 of 5
- Brinje home advantage and H2H psychological edge from two 2026 wins
- Radomlje trailing at half-time in 53% of matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostBrinje Grosuplje or DrawEstimated chance58%

Goals10 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' defensive records are poor (Brinje conceding 2.3/game, Radomlje 1.9/game) and their combined home/away goal rates point to a high-scoring affair.
- Brinje last 15 matches average 1.1 goals for and 2.3 conceded = 3.4 combined per game
- Radomlje last 15 matches average 1.0 goals for and 1.9 conceded = 2.9 combined per game
- Brinje home matches 2026: 7 scored / 6 conceded in 4 games (3.25 per game)
- Radomlje away matches 2026: 6 scored / 6 conceded in 3 games (4.0 per game)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have shown they can score and concede regularly, with Brinje's leaky defense (2.3 conceded/game) and Radomlje's away scoring rate supporting both teams finding the net.
- Brinje scored in 4 of last 5 league matches (1,0,4,2,1 goals)
- Radomlje scored in 3 of last 5 league matches (0,1,0,1,3 goals)
- Brinje home 2026: 7 goals in 4 games, conceded 6
- Radomlje away 2026: 6 goals in 3 games, conceded 6
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede early frequently (0.9 first-half goals against each) and trail at half-time in a high percentage of matches, making a first-half goal likely.
- Brinje first-half goals average 0.5, first-half goals conceded 0.9 per game
- Radomlje first-half goals average 0.5, first-half goals conceded 0.9 per game
- Brinje led at HT in 33% of matches, trailed 47%
- Radomlje led at HT in 27% of matches, trailed 53%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging around 0.5 first-half goals but higher full-match totals, the second half carries the bulk of scoring, supported by their poor defensive records.
- Brinje average 1.1 goals for and 2.3 conceded per match, with 0.5 scored in first half implying 0.6 in second half
- Radomlje average 1.0 goals for and 1.9 conceded, with 0.5 in first half implying 0.5 in second half
- Combined second-half expected goals approximately 2.0 based on first-half splits
- Both teams' defensive frailty suggests late-game goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brinje's defense has conceded in nearly every recent match (2.3 goals/game average), making a home clean sheet highly unlikely.
- Brinje conceded in 4 of last 5 league matches (2,3,1,4,2 goals against)
- Brinje home 2026: 6 goals conceded in 4 home matches
- Radomlje scored in 3 of last 5 league matches
- Brinje average 2.3 goals conceded per game over last 15
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonRadomlje to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Radomlje's away defense has been porous (6 conceded in 3 away games) and Brinje score regularly at home, making an away clean sheet improbable.
- Radomlje conceded in 4 of last 5 league matches (3,3,0,3,1 goals against)
- Radomlje away 2026: 6 goals conceded in 3 away matches
- Brinje scored in 4 of last 5 league matches
- Radomlje average 1.9 goals conceded per game over last 15
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBrinje Grosuplje to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brinje's home scoring rate (1.75/game) combined with Radomlje's leaky defense (1.9 conceded/game) supports the home side scoring at least twice.
- Brinje home 2026: 7 goals in 4 home matches (1.75 per game)
- Brinje scored 4 vs Celje and 2 vs Epitsentr at home recently
- Brinje scored in 4 of last 5 league matches
- Radomlje conceded 3+ goals in 3 of last 5 league matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBrinje Grosuplje over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Radomlje's away scoring rate of 2.0 goals per game and Brinje's poor defensive record make it likely the visitors score at least once.
- Radomlje away 2026: 6 goals in 3 away matches (2.0 per game)
- Radomlje scored 3 vs Mura away and 2 vs Koper away
- Brinje conceded in 4 of last 5 league matches
- Brinje average 2.3 goals conceded per game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonRadomlje over 0.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brinje's consistent concession of goals (2.3/game) makes a home win without conceding very unlikely against a Radomlje side that scores away.
- Brinje conceded in 4 of last 5 league matches
- Brinje home 2026: 6 goals conceded in 4 home matches
- Radomlje scored in 3 of last 5 league matches
- Brinje average 2.3 goals conceded per game over last 15
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Radomlje's away defense concedes regularly (2.0/game away) and Brinje score at home, making an away win to nil highly improbable.
- Radomlje conceded in 4 of last 5 league matches
- Radomlje away 2026: 6 goals conceded in 3 away matches
- Brinje scored in 4 of last 5 league matches
- Radomlje average 1.9 goals conceded per game over last 15
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance80%