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Predictions graded

Radomlje0Maribor3

HT 0–2Sun 13 Sept 2026, 18:15 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges6–275%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 05:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Maribor are strong favourites to beat bottom-placed Radomlje, but the odds are too short to offer value.

The best betting angle is 'Home Clean Sheet - No' at 1.43, though the edge is minimal. Avoid the heavily juiced match winner, double chance, and over 2.5 goals markets.

Context

Maribor are first in the 1. SNL with 16 points from eight games, four wins and four draws.
Their unbeaten record includes a 3-1 win over Bravo on 23 August and a 2-0 win over Koper on 9 August. Radomlje have lost three of four home matches, so Maribor's consistency makes them difficult to break down.
- Maribor are 1st with 16 points from 8 matches (4W, 4D, 0L).
- They beat Bravo 3-1 on 23 August and Koper 2-0 on 9 August.
- Radomlje have lost 3 of 4 home matches this season.
Radomlje midfielder Andrej Pogačar, their captain, started three of the five recent fixtures with available lineups.
His confirmed loan to Catanzaro removes him from midfield selection against Maribor. Radomlje must replace their captain in the starting eleven, which weakens their midfield structure and leadership on the pitch. The linked analysis supports Maribor as match winner, partly because Radomlje's home form is poor, and this absence adds to their selection problems.
- US Catanzaro confirmed on 1 September that it acquired Andrej Pogačar from Radomlje on loan with an option to buy.
- The Slovenian federation described Pogačar as Radomlje's captain when reporting their 4 September match at Nafta.
- A. Pogačar started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 05:37 · Europe/BucharestUS Catanzaro 1929 — Andrej Pogacar in giallorossowww.uscatanzaro1929.com · 1 Sep 2026NZS — Nafta 1903 beat Radomljewww.nzs.si · 4 Sep 2026
Radomlje are 10th in the 1. SNL with 5 points from 7 matches.
Their home record is 0 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with only 2 goals scored and 7 conceded. Maribor have been solid away with 1 win and 3 draws, so Radomlje's home weakness is a clear concern.
- Radomlje home record: 0W, 1D, 3L, 2 goals for, 7 against.
- They lost 1-3 to Aluminij at home on 16 August and 0-2 to Brinje-Grosuplje on 18 July.
- Maribor away record: 1W, 3D, 0L, 5 goals for, 4 against.
The teams last met on 3 May 2026 in the 1. SNL.
Radomlje won that match 2-1 at home. However, Maribor had won the previous meeting 5-1 in August 2025, so the head-to-head is mixed. This gives Radomlje some hope but does not override their poor current form.
- Radomlje beat Maribor 2-1 at home on 3 May 2026.
- Maribor won 5-1 at home on 23 August 2025.
- The other three recent meetings were draws or Maribor wins.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Maribor

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Maribor's unbeaten league run and Radomlje's poor home form support an away win, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Maribor

1.17fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Maribor's unbeaten run and Radomlje's struggles make a Radomlje win unlikely, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent scoring and conceding patterns, plus high-scoring H2H history, point to an open game with at least three goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, and H2H history shows early goals are common.

Total Goals AwaywonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.53fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Maribor's attacking output and Radomlje's leaky defense make 2+ away goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Maribor's superior league position, unbeaten record, and Radomlje's poor home form make an away win the most likely outcome, supported by motivation and structural home/away edge.
- Maribor are unbeaten in the league this season (4W 4D 0L) and sit 1st with 16 points.
- Radomlje are bottom (10th) with 5 points and have lost 4 of 7 league matches.
- Radomlje have not won at home this season (0W 1D 3L) and have scored only 2 goals in 4 home games.
- Maribor's away record is solid: 1W 3D 0L, with 5 goals scored and 4 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMariborEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Maribor's unbeaten league run and Radomlje's struggles make a Radomlje win unlikely, so backing Maribor or draw is a high-confidence play.
- Maribor have not lost in 8 league matches this season.
- Radomlje have won only 1 of 7 league matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Maribor have won 2 and drawn 2, losing only once.
- Radomlje's home record is 0W 1D 3L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or MariborEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Maribor's stronger overall form and Radomlje's tendency to trail early give Maribor a slight edge in the first half.
- Maribor have led at half-time in 33% of recent matches.
- Radomlje have trailed at half-time in 47% of recent matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Maribor led at half-time in 2 and drew in 2.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonMariborEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Maribor win is a plausible sequence given Maribor's second-half strength, but confidence is low.
- Maribor have drawn at half-time in 33% of recent matches.
- Maribor have won 50% of their league matches overall.
- Radomlje have drawn at half-time in 33% of recent matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/MariborEstimated chance30%

Goals5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent scoring and conceding patterns, plus high-scoring H2H history, point to an open game with at least three goals.
- Radomlje's league matches average 3.0 total goals (8 scored, 13 conceded in 7 games).
- Maribor's league matches average 2.5 total goals (14 scored, 6 conceded in 8 games).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 produced over 2.5 goals.
- Radomlje have conceded 1.9 goals per game on average in recent form.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Radomlje's consistent scoring and Maribor's occasional defensive lapses, combined with H2H trends, make both teams scoring likely.
- Radomlje have scored in 6 of their last 7 league matches.
- Maribor have conceded in 5 of their last 8 league matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in 4.
- Radomlje average 1.2 goals per game in recent form.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and H2H history shows early goals are common.
- Radomlje average 0.6 first-half goals per game in recent form.
- Maribor average 0.6 first-half goals per game in recent form.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 had at least one first-half goal.
- Radomlje have trailed at half-time in 47% of recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' tendencies, but confidence is low due to limited data.
- Radomlje's recent matches average 1.3 second-half goals (total 2.1 - 0.8 first-half).
- Maribor's recent matches average 1.0 second-half goals (total 1.6 - 0.6 first-half).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Radomlje's defensive record and Maribor's scoring consistency make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Radomlje have conceded in 6 of 7 league matches.
- Maribor have scored in 7 of 8 league matches.
- Radomlje's home record shows 7 goals conceded in 4 games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMaribor to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Maribor's occasional defensive lapses and Radomlje's scoring threat make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Maribor have kept only 2 clean sheets in 8 league matches.
- Radomlje have scored in 6 of 7 league matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Maribor kept a clean sheet only once.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostRadomlje to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Radomlje's home scoring has been poor, but Maribor's away defense is not impenetrable, giving a moderate chance of 2+ home goals.
- Radomlje average 1.2 goals per game in recent form.
- Radomlje have scored 2+ goals in 3 of their last 7 league matches.
- Maribor have conceded 4 goals in 4 away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostRadomlje over 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Maribor's attacking output and Radomlje's leaky defense make 2+ away goals likely.
- Maribor average 1.6 goals per game in recent form.
- Maribor have scored 2+ goals in 5 of their last 8 league matches.
- Radomlje have conceded 2+ goals in 5 of their last 7 league matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonMaribor over 1.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 65% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

W2-1RadomljevMariborMay 3, 20261.

D2-2MariborvRadomljeFeb 28, 20261.

D1-1RadomljevMariborNov 8, 20251.

L5-1MariborvRadomljeAug 23, 20251.

L4-0MariborvRadomljeApr 26, 20251.

3.8 goals/game avg

League Table

1. SNL 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Radomlje Relegation	7	1	2	4	8-13	5	LDLWL
1	Maribor Qualifying	8	4	4	0	14-6	16	DWWDW

11pt gap between teamsMaribor leads the leagueRadomlje in relegation zone

Recent Form

Radomlje

L1-3NaftaSep 41.

D0-0Olimpija LjubljanaAug 291.

L0-2Brinje-GrosupljeJul 181.

L0-1NK VarazdinJul 10FRI

L0-2HNK RijekaJul 3FRI

L0-3Dinamo ZagrebJun 26FRI

W3-2MuraMay 221.

L1-2Olimpija LjubljanaMay 171.

L1-2BravoMay 91.

W2-1MariborMay 31.

W3-2PrimorjeApr 261.

Maribor

D1-1MuraSep 61.

W3-2NaftaAug 301.

W3-1BravoAug 231.

D1-1Olimpija LjubljanaAug 151.

W2-0KoperAug 91.

D1-1CeljeAug 11.

W3-0Brinje-GrosupljeJul 251.

D0-0AluminijJul 191.

D1-1CharltonJul 10FRI

D1-1Železničar PančevoJul 4FRI

D3-3CSKA 1948Jul 1FRI

W3-0AluminijMay 231.

L1-2MuraMay 171.

L1-2RadomljeMay 31.

L0-3BravoApr 261.

Squad & Injuries

Radomlje

29 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Maribor

35 available

Attackers9

Midfielders10

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Maribor to score

Maribor

Draw or Maribor

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Radomlje to score

Over 1.5

Result3 of 4 landed

Goals5 of 8 landed

Markets to Avoid

Maribor

Draw or Maribor

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Radomlje

Maribor

Squad & Injuries

Radomlje

Maribor