Gimpo1Busan IPark0

HT 1–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 10:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–838%

Edges5–363%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 20:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Draw or Busan IPark at 1.53 is the standout value play — our 72% estimate against a 65.4% implied price gives a +7 point edge, backed by Gimpo's 1 win in 9 at home and 11 draws in 24 league games.

Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 is roughly fair value with a thin edge, while the straight Busan win at 2.63 and the short first-half unders offer no cushion.

Context

Gimpo sit eighth in K League 2 on 32 points from 24 games, with 11 goals scored and 14 conceded in nine home league matches. Their overall record is seven wins, eleven draws and six losses.
The home and away records are almost reversed: six wins and six draws from fifteen away games, but only one win from nine at home. That gap is large enough that home advantage cannot be assumed here, and it gives Busan IPark a realistic chance of taking points despite being the visiting team. The limit is that nine home matches is a small sample, so the pattern is a warning rather than a fixed rule.
- Gimpo home league record 2026: 1 win, 5 draws, 3 losses in 9 games, 11 goals scored and 14 conceded.
- Gimpo away league record 2026: 6 wins, 6 draws, 3 losses in 15 games, 19 scored and 16 conceded.
- Most recent home league results include a 1-2 loss to Seongnam FC on 2026-09-06 and a 1-4 loss to Suwon Bluewings on 2026-08-29.
Busan IPark have 12 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in K League 2 this season, with 41 goals scored and 33 conceded. Their away record is 5 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 12 games.
The nine-point gap means Busan are the higher-placed side and are defending a play-off position, while Gimpo are eight points behind seventh and 19 points clear of the relegation place. That shapes the match as one where Busan have more to protect and Gimpo have little relegation pressure, which can affect how each team approaches the game. The standings alone do not guarantee a result, since Busan have lost five of twelve away matches.
- Busan IPark: rank 6, 41 points from 25 games, 12 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses, goal difference +8.
- Gimpo: rank 8, 32 points from 24 games, 7 wins, 11 draws, 6 losses, goal difference 0.
- Busan IPark's league description is Promotion - K League 2 (Play Offs); Gimpo have no description.
The last five meetings between these clubs include three Busan wins and two goalless draws, with the most recent match played on 2026-07-12.
Busan have scored two or more goals in each of their last three wins in this fixture, and the 2026-07-12 meeting ended 2-0 with Gimpo failing to score. That recent result is the clearest reference point, though it was played at Busan, so it does not directly show how this home fixture will go. The two 0-0 draws in 2024 and early 2025 show the fixture has also produced low-scoring games.
- 2026-07-12: Busan I Park 2-0 Gimpo Citizen in K League 2.
- 2025-10-25: Busan I Park 4-1 Gimpo Citizen in K League 2.
- 2025-07-06: Gimpo Citizen 3-0 Busan I Park in K League 2.
- 2025-02-22 and 2024-08-24: both meetings ended 0-0.
Gimpo have a season average of 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, with 0.5 scored and 0.7 conceded in first halves.
Conceding early has been a repeated pattern, and it forces Gimpo to chase games from behind rather than control them. Busan IPark have led at half-time in 33% of their matches, so the first half is a phase where this fixture could be decided. The limit is that these are averages and single-match records, not a guarantee that Gimpo will concede early again.
- Gimpo season averages: 0.7 first-half goals conceded, 0.5 first-half goals scored.
- Gimpo have trailed at half-time in 40% of matches and led at half-time in 13%.
- Recent league games: 1-1 at half-time against Jeonnam Dragons on 2026-09-13, 0-1 at half-time against Seongnam FC on 2026-09-06, 0-1 at half-time against Suwon Bluewings on 2026-08-29.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Busan's superior table position, goal output and Gimpo's very weak home record (1 win in 9) give the visitors the edge, though Busan's patchy recent form caps confidence.
- Busan IPark sit 6th on 41 pts (12W-5D-8L, 41 GF) vs Gimpo 8th on 32 pts (7W-11D-6L, 30 GF) after 24-25 rounds
- Busan away record 5W-2D-5L with 20 GF/20 GA in 12 away games; Gimpo home record just 1W-5D-3L with 11 GF/14 GA in 9 home games
- H2H last 5: Busan won 2-0 (Jul 2026) and 4-0 (Oct 2025) at home; Gimpo won 3-0 (Jul 2025); two 0-0 draws
- Busan last 5 form WLLDD; Gimpo last 5 DLLDW with 1.3 GF/1.4 GA per game over last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBusan IParkEstimated chance44%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gimpo's draw-heavy profile and poor home win rate combined with Busan's solid away points rate make the draw-or-away double chance the safest result angle.
- Gimpo have drawn 11 of 24 league games (46%) and only 1 win in 9 home matches
- Busan unbeaten in 2 of last 5 but have avoided defeat in 7 of 12 away games (5W-2D-5L)
- H2H last 5 produced 2 draws and no Gimpo home win over Busan in the sample
- Gimpo home 11 GF/14 GA in 9 games shows low-scoring, tight home profile
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Busan IParkEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides and frequent half-time draws in recent matches make a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Gimpo half-time result: D in 8 of last 15 matches
- Busan half-time result: D in 7 of last 15 matches
- Gimpo first-half goals 0.5 for/0.7 against; Busan 0.6 for/0.5 against
- Both teams' low first-half scoring rates limit early separation
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Busan's stronger overall attacking output and Gimpo's weak home closing record give the visitors a slight second-half edge.
- Busan average 0.9 second-half goals implied vs Gimpo 0.8
- Gimpo conceded 1.4 per game overall with heavier second-half leakage
- Gimpo home record 1W-5D-3L shows they struggle to close out home games
- Busan away 20 GF in 12 games shows second-half scoring capacity
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostBusan IParkEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gimpo's very low half-time lead rate and Busan's low half-time trailing rate make draw-or-Busan the strong first-half double chance.
- Gimpo half-time D in 8 of 15, L in 5 of 15 — rarely lead at the break
- Busan half-time D in 7 of 15, W in 5 of 15
- Gimpo led at half-time in only 13% of matches
- Busan trailed at half-time in only 20% of matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Busan IParkEstimated chance68%

Goals5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' modest scoring averages and Gimpo's low-event home profile point to a controlled, low-total game, though H2H blowouts add variance.
- Gimpo average 1.3 GF and 1.4 GA per game over last 15; Busan 1.5 GF and 1.3 GA
- Gimpo home games average 11 GF/14 GA in 9 = 2.78 total, but 5 of 9 were draws
- H2H last 5: two 0-0 draws and a 2-0, 4-0, 3-0 — mixed but 3 of 5 under 2.5
- Busan first-half goals average only 0.6 per game, indicating slow starts
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent records show regular scoring and conceding, and Busan's balanced away goals-for/against split supports both teams finding the net.
- Gimpo scored in 11 of last 15 matches and conceded in 12 of 15
- Busan scored in 10 of last 15 and conceded in 11 of 15
- Gimpo home 11 GF/14 GA in 9 games — both teams scored in most home fixtures
- Busan away 20 GF/20 GA in 12 games shows they score and concede on the road
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' low first-half scoring averages and Gimpo's tendency to start slowly support a quiet opening period.
- Gimpo average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.7 against over last 15
- Busan average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.5 against over last 15
- Gimpo trailed at half-time in 40% of matches but led in only 13%
- Busan led at half-time in 33% and trailed in 20%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede disproportionately after the break, suggesting second-half goals are more likely than first-half ones.
- Gimpo average 1.3 total goals with 0.5 in first half, implying ~0.8 in second half
- Busan average 1.5 total goals with 0.6 in first half, implying ~0.9 in second half
- Gimpo conceded 1.4 per game overall vs 0.7 in first half — more second-half leakage
- Busan conceded 1.3 overall vs 0.5 in first half — heavier second-half concession
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gimpo's low home scoring rate (1.22 per game) and frequent single-goal or blank home outings support a low home total.
- Gimpo home record: 11 GF in 9 home games = 1.22 goals per home game
- Gimpo home results 1W-5D-3L with 14 GA in 9 home games
- Gimpo average 1.3 GF per game overall over last 15
- Gimpo scored 0 or 1 in 9 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonGimpo under 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Busan's away scoring rate of 1.67 per game and Gimpo's leaky home defence make an away total above 1.5 plausible.
- Busan away record: 20 GF in 12 away games = 1.67 goals per away game
- Busan average 1.5 GF per game over last 15
- Busan scored 2+ in 6 of last 15 matches
- Gimpo conceded 14 in 9 home games = 1.56 per home game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBusan IPark over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gimpo's regular home scoring and Busan's frequent away concessions make a Busan clean sheet unlikely.
- Gimpo scored in 11 of last 15 matches
- Gimpo home 11 GF in 9 games — they score in most home fixtures
- Busan kept clean sheets in only 4 of last 15 matches
- Busan away 20 GA in 12 games shows they concede regularly on the road
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGimpo to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Busan's poor away clean-sheet rate and Gimpo's consistent home scoring make a Busan win-to-nil highly improbable.
- Busan kept only 4 clean sheets in last 15 matches
- Busan away 20 GA in 12 games — conceding in most away fixtures
- Gimpo scored in 11 of last 15 matches
- Gimpo home 11 GF in 9 games
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance78%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 38% vs our 44% estimate is only a 6pt gap on a MEDIUM-confidence read, and Busan's WLLDD recent form offers no cushion at 2.63.

Prediction history

Busan IPark has been unreliable when projected to win, with only 1 of 5 recent winner projections fulfilled

Busan IPark fulfilled 1 of 5 recent matchWinner projections, a 20% rate. The missed results were 2 draws and 2 losses, with no wins, and the average estimated probability was 53% against an expected 2.7 fulfilled predictions. The current 44% projection sits below the historical range of 45–65%, and the away split shows 0 fulfilled predictions from 2 samples.

Recent evidence for Busan IPark5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·K League 2