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Predictions graded

Gimpo FC1Daegu1

HT 0–1Sat 18 Jul 2026, 10:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–357%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Jul 2026, 17:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Daegu’s promotion push and strong form make them the likely winners, but the safest value lies in Double Chance (Draw or Daegu) at 1.40, where our 75% probability estimate edges the market.

Over 2.5 Goals also offers a small edge, while markets like First Half Result are fairly priced and best avoided.

Context

Daegu are 3rd on 31 points, with 1st and 2nd earning automatic promotion.
- Gimpo are 8th on 24 points, only a few points outside the 3rd-6th playoff zone.
- Head-to-head points are a tiebreaker in K League 2, adding extra weight to this match.
Gimpo home record: 0W-1D-1L, 2 goals scored, 4 conceded.
- They lost 0-2 at home to Asan Mugunghwa and drew 2-2 with Jeonnam Dragons.
- Small sample size, but the early returns are poor.
Last 5 league matches: WWWDW, averaging 2.6 goals per game.
- Wins include a 5-1 away victory at Cheongju and a 3-0 home win over Ansan Greeners.
- Only one loss in their last 10 league matches (6W-3D-1L).
Kim Byung-soo resigned on 20 April 2026; Choi Sung-yong took over the same day.
- Daegu have won 5 of 8 league matches since the change.
- No major squad disruption reported.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Daegu's stronger promotion motivation and superior recent form, combined with Gimpo's very limited and poor home record, give Daegu a clear edge despite the away fixture.
- Daegu are 3rd with 31 points, chasing automatic promotion; Gimpo are 8th with 24 points, still in playoff contention but less urgent.
- Daegu's recent form (last 5 league matches): WWWDW, averaging 2.0 goals scored per game.
- Gimpo's recent form (last 5 league matches): LLDWW, but they have only 2 home matches all season (0W-1D-1L, 2 goals scored, 4 conceded).
- H2H this season: Daegu 3-3 Gimpo at Daegu, but Daegu also won 2-0 in the only other surfaced 2026 meeting.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDaeguEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gimpo's dreadful home form and Daegu's strong away resilience make a Gimpo win unlikely; Daegu or draw covers the two most probable outcomes.
- Gimpo have won 0 of 2 home matches this season (1 draw, 1 loss).
- Daegu have lost only 1 of 7 away matches this season (3W-3D-1L).
- H2H this season ended in a 3-3 draw, showing Gimpo can score but Daegu are hard to beat.
- Daegu's away goal difference: +6 (16 scored, 10 conceded in 7 matches).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or DaeguEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a strong tendency to be level at halftime, with Daegu drawing 4 of their last 5 first halves and Gimpo rarely leading early.
- Gimpo's last 5 league matches: HT results: L, D, W, D, D (4 of 5 draws or losses).
- Daegu's last 5 league matches: HT results: D, W, D, D, D (4 of 5 draws).
- H2H this season: 1-1 at halftime.
- Daegu lead at halftime in only 27% of matches; Gimpo lead in 20%.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Daegu's second-half strength and greater motivation to secure three points make them likely to edge the second period if the game is tight at the break.
- Daegu have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 league matches (W, W, D, D, W).
- Gimpo have lost the second half in 2 of their last 5 league matches (L, L, D, W, D).
- Daegu's superior fitness and depth, plus their need for a win, should see them push harder late.
- Daegu have scored 21 of their 35 goals in the second half this season.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDaeguEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A plausible scenario given Daegu's pattern of second-half improvement and Gimpo's tendency to fade, but the low probability reflects the difficulty of predicting exact HT/FT combinations.
- Daegu have drawn at halftime in 4 of their last 5 league matches, then won 3 of those 4.
- Gimpo have drawn at halftime in 3 of their last 5 league matches, then lost 2 of those 3.
- H2H this season: 1-1 at halftime, ended 3-3, but Daegu's current form is stronger.
- Daegu's away record: 3 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss; they often start slow and finish strong.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DaeguEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Daegu's high-scoring trend and the previous H2H goal fest, combined with Gimpo's leaky defense in recent matches, point to a match with at least 3 goals.
- Daegu's last 5 league matches: 3, 5, 1, 1, 3 goals scored (avg 2.6 per game).
- Gimpo's last 5 league matches: 0, 0, 2, 2, 1 goals scored (avg 1.0), but they conceded 2, 2, 2, 1, 0 (avg 1.4).
- H2H this season: 3-3 draw, a 6-goal thriller.
- Daegu have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, and Daegu's away defensive record is not watertight, making it likely both find the net.
- Gimpo have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Daegu have conceded in 4 of their last 5 league matches, but scored in all 5.
- H2H this season: both teams scored in the 3-3 draw.
- Daegu's away matches: both teams scored in 5 of 7 this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, with only 2 of their combined last 10 league matches being 0-0 at halftime.
- Gimpo's last 5 league matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (0, 0, 2, 1, 1).
- Daegu's last 5 league matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (1, 2, 0, 0, 1).
- H2H this season: first half ended 1-1.
- Daegu average 0.7 first-half goals per game this season; Gimpo average 0.5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Daegu's strong second-half scoring record and the likelihood of an open game as both teams push for a result suggest multiple second-half goals.
- Daegu's last 5 league matches: second-half goals totals: 2, 3, 1, 1, 2 (avg 1.8).
- Gimpo's last 5 league matches: second-half goals totals: 2, 2, 0, 1, 1 (avg 1.2).
- H2H this season: second half had 4 goals (2-2 after 1-1 HT).
- Daegu have scored 60% of their goals in the second half this season (21 of 35).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, this is a low-confidence estimate based on the expected open nature of the game and typical league corner rates.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided match logs, so this is based on league averages and match context.
- K League 2 matches average around 9-10 corners per game.
- Daegu's attacking style (35 goals in 16 matches) suggests they win many corners.
- Gimpo's need to attack at home could also generate corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 0W

D3-3Daegu FCvGimpo CitizenApr 5, 2026K L

6 goals/game avg

League Table

K League 2 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Gimpo FC	16	6	6	4	19-18	24	LLDWW
3	Daegu Promotion - K League 2 (Play Offs)	16	9	4	3	35-22	31	WWWDW

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Gimpo FC

W2-1NamyangjuJul 15FAC

L0-2Busan I ParkJul 12K L

L0-2Asan MugunghwaJul 5K L

D2-2Jeonnam DragonsJun 7K L

W2-1Gimhae CityMay 30K L

W1-0Paju CitizenMay 25K L

W1-0Ansan GreenersMay 16K L

D1-1CheongjuMay 9K L

L1-2Seoul E-Land FCMay 3K L

D1-1Suwon City FCApr 26K L

D2-2HwaseongApr 19K L

W1-0Suwon BluewingsApr 12K L

D3-3Daegu FCApr 5K L

D0-0Seongnam FCMar 28K L

L0-1Gyeongnam FCMar 22K L

Daegu

L0-1Siheung CitizenJul 15FAC

W3-2Seongnam FCJul 11K L

W5-1CheongjuJul 4K L

W1-0Paju CitizenJun 5K L

D1-1Yongin CityMay 30K L

W3-0Ansan GreenersMay 24K L

W4-1Gimhae CityMay 17K L

D0-0Suwon BluewingsMay 9K L

W2-0Gyeongnam FCMay 3K L

L1-2Cheonan CityApr 18K L

D2-2Suwon City FCApr 11K L

D3-3Gimpo CitizenApr 5K L

L1-3Seoul E-Land FCMar 29K L

L1-3Busan I ParkMar 22K L

W3-2Asan MugunghwaMar 15K L

Squad & Injuries

Gimpo FC

29 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Daegu

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Daegu

Daegu

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Yes

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Daegu

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Gimpo FC

Daegu

Squad & Injuries

Gimpo FC

Daegu