Süper LigFull time

Predictions graded

Corum FK1Alanyaspor2

HT 0–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 12–9On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 3–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 16:59 · Europe/Bucharest

The standout value is Over 2.5 goals at 1.91, with a model edge of +9.6 points.

Avoid first-half goals over 0.5 and double chance markets, as their odds already overestimate the probabilities.

Context

Çorum FK are 10th in the Süper Lig with 7 points from 5 matches.
At home they beat Eyüpspor 3-0 on 2026-09-06 but lost 0-1 to Kasımpaşa on 2026-08-22. Their home record shows they can be solid defensively but have struggled to score in one match. This mixed form makes their home advantage uncertain against Alanyaspor.
- Çorum FK beat Eyüpspor 3-0 at home on 2026-09-06.
- Çorum FK lost 0-1 to Kasımpaşa at home on 2026-08-22.
Çorum FK head coach Uğur Uçar has reportedly reviewed the Samsunspor match with his players before the first Alanyaspor preparation session.
He stressed concentration and discipline through the full match after errors once earlier scorelines had widened. This points to a match-specific emphasis on defensive concentration and game management, particularly when protecting a lead, though it remains a reported instruction rather than a confirmed tactical change.
- Çorum Hakimiyet reported that Uçar reviewed the Samsunspor match with the squad before the first Alanyaspor preparation session.
- The report said he highlighted mistakes after the score had opened up and asked for 90-minute concentration and game discipline.
ReportedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 16:58 · Europe/BucharestÇorum Hakimiyetwww.corumhakimiyet.net · 15 Sep 2026
Alanyaspor are 8th in the Süper Lig with 8 points from 5 matches.
Away from home they beat Rizespor 1-0 on 2026-09-07, drew 1-1 with Gaziantep FK on 2026-08-15, and lost 1-2 to Eyüpspor on 2026-08-30. Their away results show they can compete but are not dominant on the road.
- Alanyaspor beat Rizespor 1-0 away on 2026-09-07.
- Alanyaspor drew 1-1 with Gaziantep FK away on 2026-08-15.
- Alanyaspor lost 1-2 to Eyüpspor away on 2026-08-30.
The teams met once in the Türkiye Kupası last season.
Alanyaspor won 5-0 away at Çorum FK on 2025-12-04. That result shows Alanyaspor can score heavily against this opponent, but it was a cup match and may not reflect current league form.
- Alanyaspor beat Çorum FK 5-0 away on 2025-12-04 in the Türkiye Kupası.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.35fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, but the odds already price in a high probability.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and a slightly better goal difference give Corum FK a marginal edge, but the match is closely contested.
- Corum FK home record this season: 1 win, 1 loss, 3 goals scored, 1 conceded
- Alanyaspor away record this season: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, 3 goals scored, 3 conceded
- Corum FK won 2 of their last 5 Süper Lig matches
- Alanyaspor won 2 of their last 5 Süper Lig matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCorum FKEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Corum FK are unlikely to lose at home given their solid defensive home record, supporting a double chance.
- Corum FK home record: 1 win, 1 loss (no draws)
- Alanyaspor away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss
- Corum FK have not drawn at home this season
- Alanyaspor have drawn 1 of 3 away matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCorum FK or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be tight, with both teams evenly matched early on.
- Corum FK led at half-time in 40% of matches, trailed in 27%
- Alanyaspor led at half-time in 33% of matches, trailed in 20%
- Both teams have a high percentage of level first halves
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time and full-time is possible given the balanced nature of the matchup.
- Corum FK drew 1 of their last 5 Süper Lig matches
- Alanyaspor drew 2 of their last 5 Süper Lig matches
- Both teams have shown ability to hold draws
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities, with Corum FK's recent high-scoring games driving the over expectation.
- Corum FK average 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match over last 15
- Alanyaspor average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match over last 15
- Corum FK's last 5 Süper Lig matches produced 3,3,8,1,4 goals (avg 3.8)
- Alanyaspor's last 5 Süper Lig matches produced 4,1,3,1,2 goals (avg 2.2)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net and concede, making BTTS a strong possibility.
- Corum FK scored in 4 of their last 5 Süper Lig matches
- Alanyaspor scored in 4 of their last 5 Süper Lig matches
- Corum FK conceded in 4 of their last 5 Süper Lig matches
- Alanyaspor conceded in 4 of their last 5 Süper Lig matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Corum FK average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- Alanyaspor average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- Corum FK led at half-time in 40% of matches
- Alanyaspor led at half-time in 33% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have seen more goals for both teams, but the line is high and confidence is limited.
- Corum FK average 1.1 second-half goals scored (total 1.8 - 0.7 first half)
- Alanyaspor average 0.8 second-half goals scored (total 1.4 - 0.6 first half)
- Combined second-half scoring average is 1.9 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, pushing the total above the line.
- Corum FK average 5.9 corners per match, concede 5.1 opponent corners
- Alanyaspor average 4.8 corners per match, concede 4.9 opponent corners
- Combined average corners per match is 10.7
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average sits right at the line, with a slight lean to the over.
- Corum FK average 5.0 shots on target per match, concede 4.1 opponent shots on target
- Alanyaspor average 3.5 shots on target per match, concede 4.3 opponent shots on target
- Combined average shots on target is 8.5
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 74.1% leaves no cushion vs our 65% estimate; vig too heavy for a directional Over play.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W0-5Çorum FKvAlanyasporDec 4, 2025TÜR

5 goals/game avg

League Table

Süper Lig 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Corum FK	5	2	1	2	12-10	7	WWLLD
8	Alanyaspor	5	2	2	1	6-5	8	DWLWD

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Corum FK

W5-1SamsunsporSep 12SÜP

W3-0EyüpsporSep 6SÜP

L2-6BeşiktaşAug 31SÜP

L0-1KasımpaşaAug 22SÜP

D2-2GalatasarayAug 14SÜP

W2-0Esenler EroksporMay 241.

L0-1Bodrum FKMay 111.

W1-0KeçiörengücüMay 71.

D1-1Erzurumspor FKMay 21.

W4-0SakaryasporApr 261.

W3-1SivassporApr 191.

D1-1PendiksporApr 111.

D1-1Bodrum FKApr 71.

L0-1BandırmasporApr 31.

W2-0Iğdır FKMar 221.

Alanyaspor

D2-2GöztepeSep 12SÜP

W1-0RizesporSep 7SÜP

L1-2EyüpsporAug 30SÜP

W1-0BeşiktaşAug 23SÜP

D1-1Gaziantep FKAug 15SÜP

D2-2TikvešJul 16FRI

L1-2Fatih KaragümrükMay 16SÜP

W3-1KayserisporMay 9SÜP

D0-0AntalyasporMay 3SÜP

L2-3SamsunsporApr 27SÜP

L0-3BeşiktaşApr 23TÜR

L0-1KasımpaşaApr 19SÜP

D1-1TrabzonsporApr 11SÜP

D1-1Gaziantep FKApr 4SÜP

W5-0KocaelisporMar 18SÜP

Squad & Injuries

Corum FK

29 available

Attackers4

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Alanyaspor

28 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Corum FK or Draw

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Corum FK or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Corum FK

Alanyaspor

Squad & Injuries

Corum FK

Alanyaspor