Primera AFull time

Predictions graded

Aguilas Doradas2Deportivo Pereira2

HT 1–0Fri 18 Sept 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 12–11On targetOn target 6–7CornersCorners 7–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 00:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Águilas are likely to win or draw, but the 1.38 home win price offers no value.

The best betting edge is the first-half draw at 2.38, with a 55% estimated probability versus 42% implied. Both teams to score at 2.10 also shows positive value, but Pereira's away scoring woes add risk.

Context

Deportivo Pereira sits 20th in the Apertura standings with 10 points from 19 matches.
Their away record is 0 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, with only 6 goals scored and 19 conceded. This pattern suggests they struggle to control matches on the road, and Aguilas Doradas can exploit that. However, Pereira's recent away form includes a 2-1 win at Deportivo Pasto on August 31, so they are not completely without threat.
- Deportivo Pereira's away record in the Apertura: 0 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses in 10 matches.
- They scored 6 goals and conceded 19 in those away matches.
- Their only away win in all competitions this season was a 2-1 victory at Deportivo Pasto on August 31, 2026.
Aguilas Doradas are 12th in the Apertura with 26 points.
Their recent form is LDDDD, including a 0-2 loss at Atletico Nacional on September 13 and draws against Internacional de Bogota, Chico, Millonarios, and Llaneros. This run indicates they are struggling to close out matches, but they remain unbeaten at home in the Clausura with 1 win and 3 draws. Pereira may find opportunities if Aguilas continue to drop points.
- Aguilas Doradas' last five league results: LDDDD.
- They lost 0-2 at Atletico Nacional on September 13, 2026.
- They drew 2-2 with Internacional de Bogota on September 6, 2026.
Águilas' home fixture is moved from Rionegro's Alberto Grisales to Estadio Cincuentenario in Medellín.
Both teams prepare for Medellín rather than Águilas' regular Rionegro setting, changing the travel and local-match environment. The linked analysis still sees Águilas with a clear home advantage, but the venue shift removes their usual ground familiarity.
- The 2026-II fixture calendar schedules Águilas Doradas v Deportivo Pereira on 18 September at Estadio Cincuentenario.
- Águilas said on 15 January that Rionegro’s municipal administration had declared Estadio Alberto Grisales unavailable.
- Deportivo Pereira said on 15 September that training was focused on Friday’s match against Águilas in Medellín.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 00:10 · Europe/BucharestInfobae Colombia fixture calendarwww.infobae.com · 9 Jul 2026Águilas Doradas stadium statementaguilasdoradas.com.co · 15 Jan 2026
The teams have met five times since September 2024.
In the last three encounters, Aguilas Doradas won 1-0 away in March 2026 and 5-1 away in October 2025, while the May 2026 Copa Colombia match ended 1-1. This suggests Aguilas have had the upper hand recently, but the most recent meeting was a draw, so Pereira can compete.
- March 15, 2026: Deportivo Pereira 0-1 Aguilas Doradas (Primera A).
- October 25, 2025: Deportivo Pereira 1-5 Aguilas Doradas (Primera A).
- May 21, 2026: Aguilas Doradas 1-1 Deportivo Pereira (Copa Colombia).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Aguilas Doradas

1.39fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 72%

0.0ppshort

The market is heavily skewed toward the home side, but the predictor's 45% estimate is far below the 72% implied probability.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aguilas Doradas have a clear home advantage and stronger recent form, while Pereira have struggled away all season.
- Aguilas Doradas home record: 4W 2D 4L in 10, 12 goals scored, 14 conceded
- Deportivo Pereira away record: 0W 3D 7L in 10, 6 goals scored, 19 conceded
- Aguilas Doradas average 1.4 goals per match overall vs Pereira's 0.7
- H2H last 5: Aguilas won 2, drew 3, lost 0
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAguilas DoradasEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pereira have not won away this season and Aguilas have been solid at home, making a home win or draw highly likely.
- Aguilas Doradas home record: 4W 2D 4L
- Deportivo Pereira away record: 0W 3D 7L
- H2H last 5: Aguilas won 2, drew 3, lost 0
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAguilas Doradas or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely lead at the break, and the H2H shows a strong tendency for a level first half.
- Aguilas Doradas led at half-time in only 13% of matches
- Deportivo Pereira led at half-time in only 13% of matches
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates, and the H2H has been evenly matched, making a draw at both intervals plausible.
- Aguilas Doradas have drawn 5 of their last 15 matches
- Deportivo Pereira have drawn 7 of their last 15 matches
- H2H last 5: 3 draws
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in relatively high-scoring games recently, and the H2H trend supports goals.
- Aguilas Doradas average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match
- Deportivo Pereira average 0.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score, and the H2H record strongly indicates both teams finding the net.
- Aguilas Doradas have scored in 8 of their last 10 home matches
- Deportivo Pereira have scored in 6 of their last 10 away matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, and the H2H shows frequent first-half goals.
- Aguilas Doradas average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded
- Deportivo Pereira average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 matches had at least one first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring has been moderate for both teams, but the H2H suggests some potential for late goals.
- Aguilas Doradas average 1.1 second-half goals per match
- Deportivo Pereira average 0.4 second-half goals per match
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aguilas generate a decent number of corners, but Pereira's low corner count makes this a borderline call.
- Aguilas Doradas average 5.2 corners per match
- Deportivo Pereira average 2.6 corners per match
- Combined average corners: 7.8
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is just below the line, but Aguilas' home attacking intent could push it over.
- Aguilas Doradas average 4.4 shots on target per match
- Deportivo Pereira average 2.6 shots on target per match
- Combined average shots on target: 7.0
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is exactly at the line, making this a coin-flip based on recent discipline.
- Aguilas Doradas average 2.4 yellow cards per match
- Deportivo Pereira average 2.1 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.5
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 72% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 3D · 0W

D1-1Águilas DoradasvDeportivo PereiraMay 21, 2026COP

W0-1Deportivo PereiravÁguilas DoradasMar 15, 2026PRI

W1-5Deportivo PereiravÁguilas DoradasOct 25, 2025PRI

D3-3Águilas DoradasvDeportivo PereiraMay 5, 2025PRI

D1-1Águilas DoradasvDeportivo PereiraSep 27, 2024PRI

Aguilas Doradas unbeaten in 5 meetings3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Aguilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	20-25	26	LDDDD
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	15-32	10	LDLWD

16pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Aguilas Doradas

L0-2Atletico NacionalSep 13PRI

D2-2Internacional de BogotaSep 6PRI

D2-2ChicoAug 30PRI

D1-1MillonariosAug 22PRI

D1-1LlanerosAug 19PRI

W2-1Deportivo PastoAug 1PRI

W2-1Santa FeJul 26PRI

D2-2Real CundinamarcaMay 26COP

D1-1Deportivo PereiraMay 21COP

W4-1Ind. YumboMay 18COP

D0-0JaguaresMay 10COP

W2-1Independiente MedellinMay 3PRI

D2-2Once CaldasApr 26PRI

L0-2Fortaleza FCApr 19PRI

L0-3JuniorApr 11PRI

Deportivo Pereira

L1-3BucaramangaSep 13PRI

L1-4America de CaliSep 9COP

D1-1MillonariosSep 6PRI

L0-3Independiente MedellinSep 4PRI

W2-1Deportivo PastoAug 31PRI

D0-0Alianza ValleduparAug 22PRI

D0-0Fortaleza FCAug 1PRI

L0-1LlanerosJul 24PRI

W1-0JaguaresMay 26COP

D1-1Águilas DoradasMay 21COP

W1-0Real CundinamarcaMay 17COP

D1-1Ind. YumboMay 7COP

L0-1America de CaliMay 3PRI

W1-0Atletico NacionalApr 25PRI

L0-2Deportes TolimaApr 18PRI

Squad & Injuries

Aguilas Doradas

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Deportivo Pereira

34 available

Attackers9

Midfielders13

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Yes

Aguilas Doradas

Aguilas Doradas or Draw

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Aguilas Doradas

Aguilas Doradas or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Aguilas Doradas

Deportivo Pereira

Squad & Injuries

Aguilas Doradas

Deportivo Pereira