Sol de America3Fernando de la Mora2

HT 1–1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 00:22 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is on Sol de America or Draw (double chance) at 1.45, with a 78% estimated probability versus 69% implied.

A half-time draw at 1.91 also offers a small edge. Avoid backing Fernando de la Mora outright or in the first half, as those markets are overpriced.

Context

Sol de America sit 5th in Division Intermedia with 34 points from 23 matches.
Their home record is 2 wins, 9 draws, and 0 losses, with 9 goals scored and 6 conceded. That unbeaten run suggests they are difficult to break down at home, but the high number of draws means they often settle for a point. Fernando de la Mora will need to be sharp to take anything from this match.
- Sol de America home record: 2 wins, 9 draws, 0 losses in 11 matches.
- They have scored 9 goals and conceded 6 at home this season.
Fernando de la Mora are 11th in the table with 28 points.
Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, scoring 12 and conceding 16. That defensive record on the road is poor, and Sol de America's patient home style could exploit it. However, Fernando de la Mora have won 4 away games, so they are not completely toothless.
- Fernando de la Mora away record: 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses in 11 matches.
- They have conceded 16 goals away, an average of 1.45 per game.
The teams have met five times in recent seasons.
In the most recent meeting on 24 May 2026, Sol de America won 1-0 at Fernando de la Mora. That result shows they can beat this opponent, but the previous two meetings were draws, so the matchup is not one-sided. The earlier win may give Sol de America confidence in their approach.
- 24 May 2026: Fernando de la Mora 0-1 Sol de America.
- 5 July 2025: Fernando de la Mora 2-2 Sol de America.
- 31 March 2025: Sol de America 0-0 Fernando de la Mora.
A southerly wind of 16–34 km/h with gusts around 34 km/h is forecast at kickoff. If it materialises, long passes, crosses, and set-piece deliveries may be less predictable for both teams.
- The forecast lists 16–34 km/h southerly wind at 10:00 on 13 September in Villa Elisa.
- The same forecast projects no rain at that hour and wind gusts of 34 km/h.
To watchSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 00:21 · Europe/BucharestMeteored Paraguay — Villa Elisa forecastwww.meteored.com.py · 12 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Sol de America

2.00fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

Sol de America are unbeaten at home but have drawn 9 of 11, so the market's 50% implied probability is slightly above our 45% estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sol de America's unbeaten home record and higher league position give them a structural home edge, though their high draw rate tempers confidence.
- Sol de America home record: 2W 9D 0L in 11 matches, unbeaten at home
- Sol de America overall: 7W 13D 3L, 34 points, 5th place
- Fernando de la Mora away record: 4W 2D 5L in 11 matches
- H2H last 5: Sol de America won 2, drew 2, lost 1
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSol de AmericaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sol de America's unbeaten home record and high draw frequency make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Sol de America home record: 2W 9D 0L, no home losses
- Fernando de la Mora away record: 4W 2D 5L, 5 away losses
- Sol de America overall draw rate: 13 draws in 23 matches (57%)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSol de America or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high first-half draw rates, and their head-to-head history shows frequent level scores at the break.
- Sol de America first half results: 33% leading, 7% trailing, 60% drawing
- Fernando de la Mora first half results: 27% leading, 13% trailing, 60% drawing
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sol de America's high home draw rate makes a draw at both half time and full time a plausible but low-probability outcome.
- Sol de America home record: 9 draws in 11 home matches
- Fernando de la Mora away record: 2 draws in 11 away matches
- Sol de America overall draw rate: 57%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sol de America's home matches are low-scoring, and their defensive solidity at home supports under 2.5 goals.
- Sol de America home goals: 9 scored, 6 conceded in 11 home matches (avg 1.36 total goals)
- Fernando de la Mora away goals: 12 scored, 16 conceded in 11 away matches (avg 2.55 total goals)
- Sol de America overall: 27 scored, 19 conceded in 23 matches (avg 2.0 total goals)
- Fernando de la Mora overall: 24 scored, 31 conceded in 23 matches (avg 2.39 total goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sol de America's strong home defense and Fernando de la Mora's inconsistent away scoring make a clean sheet for the home side plausible.
- Sol de America home: 9 goals scored, 6 conceded in 11 matches, 5 clean sheets
- Fernando de la Mora away: 12 goals scored, 16 conceded in 11 matches, 2 clean sheets
- Sol de America overall: 19 goals conceded in 23 matches, 8 clean sheets
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, suggesting a low-scoring first half.
- Sol de America first half goals: 0.8 per match, first half conceded: 0.4
- Fernando de la Mora first half goals: 0.5 per match, first half conceded: 0.3
- Sol de America leading at half time: 33%, trailing: 7%
- Fernando de la Mora leading at half time: 27%, trailing: 13%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring tends to be higher for both teams, but the combined average is just below the 1.5 line, making this a low-confidence lean.
- Sol de America second half goals: 0.4 per match (1.2 total - 0.8 first half)
- Fernando de la Mora second half goals: 0.9 per match (1.4 total - 0.5 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.3 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sol de America's home defense is solid, but Fernando de la Mora's away scoring ability makes a home clean sheet uncertain.
- Sol de America home: 6 goals conceded in 11 matches, 5 clean sheets
- Fernando de la Mora away: 12 goals scored in 11 matches, 2 clean sheets
- Sol de America overall: 19 goals conceded in 23 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFernando de la Mora not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fernando de la Mora's away defense is leaky, and Sol de America rarely fails to score at home, making an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Fernando de la Mora away: 16 goals conceded in 11 matches, 2 clean sheets
- Sol de America home: 9 goals scored in 11 matches, failed to score in 3
- Fernando de la Mora overall: 31 goals conceded in 23 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSol de America to scoreEstimated chance70%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 29% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 22%; the away side's poor away form and Sol de America's unbeaten home record make this a trap.

Prediction history

Sol de America has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Sol de America has fulfilled 2 of 4 recent win predictions. The two missed predictions both ended in draws, with no losses. Their current 45% probability sits within the historical range of 40-55%.

Recent evidence for Sol de America4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·Division Intermedia