Segunda DivisiónFull time

Predictions graded

River Plate Montevideo0Fenix Montevideo1

HT 0–1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 05:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Fenix Montevideo are slight favorites in a playoff-relevant clash, but the best betting value is in the goals markets: over 2.5 goals (55% model probability vs 43.5% implied) and both teams to score (58% vs 48.8%) offer significant edges.

River's strong home form makes the match winner market riskier, with only a modest +4 point edge on Fenix.

Context

Fenix is 3rd in the 1st Phase with 11 points, while River Plate is 13th with 4 points.
In their most recent meeting on 6 June 2026, Fenix won 3-1 at home. That result suggests Fenix can create chances against River Plate, but it was three months ago and at Fenix's ground, so it may not fully predict this away match.
- On 6 June 2026, Fenix beat CA River Plate 3-1 at home in the Segunda División.
River Plate Montevideo enter the round three points behind the last playoff position, while Fénix Montevideo sit fifth and inside the qualification places.
The table positions sharpen the incentive for both sides to manage the match according to the score state. A win for River would close the gap on the playoff places, while Fénix can consolidate their position with a positive result.
- FútbolUy listed Fénix fifth on 33 points, ahead of sixth-placed Cerrito on goal difference.
- The same table listed River Plate on 30 points and Cerrito on 33.
- La Oral Deportiva described River as chasing the playoff places and Fénix as occupying a next-phase position before the fixture.
ReportedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 05:38 · Europe/BucharestFútbolUy: Segunda División round-18 preview and tablewww.montevideo.com.uy · 11 Sep 2026La Oral Deportiva: round-18 previewlaoraldeportiva.com.uy · 10 Sep 2026
River Plate is 13th in the 1st Phase with 4 points from 6 matches.
River Plate lost 3-2 away to Atenas on 6 September and 0-0 at home to Rentistas on 30 August. Their only win came at home to Miramar on 15 August. This poor run suggests they may struggle against a stronger Fenix side.
- River Plate lost 3-2 away to Atenas on 6 September 2026.
- River Plate drew 0-0 at home to Rentistas on 30 August 2026.
- River Plate won 3-0 at home to Miramar on 15 August 2026.
Fenix is 3rd in the 1st Phase with 11 points from 6 matches.
Fenix beat Tacuarembo 2-0 away on 22 August and drew 1-1 at home to Miramar on 30 August. Their only league loss was 2-1 away to Rentistas on 6 September. This solid form makes them favourites against a struggling River Plate.
- Fenix beat Tacuarembo 2-0 away on 22 August 2026.
- Fenix drew 1-1 at home to Miramar on 30 August 2026.
- Fenix lost 2-1 away to Rentistas on 6 September 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fenix's superior league position and recent H2H dominance give them the edge, though River's strong home form keeps confidence medium.
- Fenix are 5th with 33 points, River 13th with 30 points in the 2nd Phase table.
- Fenix away record: 2W 3D 3L, River home record: 5W 2D 1L in 2nd Phase.
- H2H last 5: Fenix won 3, River won 1, draw 1 (all competitions).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFenix MontevideoEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fenix's resilience away and River's mixed home results make a Fenix win or draw the most likely double chance.
- River home win rate in 2nd Phase: 62.5% (5/8), but overall form is inconsistent.
- Fenix have avoided defeat in 5 of their last 6 away matches in 2nd Phase.
- H2H: Fenix unbeaten in 4 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Fenix MontevideoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles, and the H2H shows frequent level scores at the break, making a draw the most likely first-half result.
- River led at half-time in 40% of matches, trailed in 7%.
- Fenix led at half-time in 40% of matches, trailed in 13%.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half-time, 2 Fenix leads, 1 River lead.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Fenix win is a plausible but low-probability sequence given the teams' patterns.
- Fenix have won after being level at half-time in 2 of their last 15 matches.
- River have lost after being level at half-time in 3 of their last 15 matches.
- H2H: one match ended 0-0 at half-time with Fenix winning 1-0.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Fenix MontevideoEstimated chance18%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in relatively high-scoring games, and the stakes may push for goals, making over 2.5 slightly likely.
- River average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match in last 15.
- Fenix average 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match in last 15.
- Combined average total goals in their matches: 3.0 (River) and 2.7 (Fenix).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net and concede, suggesting a high chance of both scoring.
- River scored in 12 of last 15 matches; Fenix scored in 11 of last 15.
- River conceded in 11 of last 15; Fenix conceded in 10 of last 15.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- River average 1.1 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Fenix average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.8 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is lower, but the match's competitive nature could lead to late goals, making over 1.5 a near coin flip.
- River second-half goals average: 0.6 scored, 0.6 conceded.
- Fenix second-half goals average: 0.6 scored, 0.9 conceded.
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.2 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fenix's consistent scoring away from home makes a River clean sheet unlikely.
- River kept clean sheets in 4 of last 15 matches.
- Fenix failed to score in only 4 of last 15 matches.
- Fenix scored in 5 of last 6 away matches in 2nd Phase.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFenix Montevideo to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
River's strong home scoring record suggests Fenix will struggle to keep a clean sheet.
- Fenix kept clean sheets in 4 of last 15 matches.
- River failed to score in only 3 of last 15 matches.
- River scored in 7 of 8 home matches in 2nd Phase.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostRiver Plate Montevideo to scoreEstimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L3-1FenixvCA River PlateJun 6, 2026SEG

L4-3CA River PlatevFenixSep 29, 2024PRI

L1-0FenixvCA River PlateJul 7, 2024PRI

D0-0FenixvCA River PlateMar 16, 2024PRI

L1-0CA River PlatevFenixNov 16, 2023PRI

Fenix Montevideo unbeaten in 5 meetingsFenix Montevideo: 3 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Segunda División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	River Plate Montevideo	6	1	1	4	6-13	4	WLLLD
3	Fenix Montevideo	6	3	2	1	13-7	11	WLWWD

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form