Segunda DivisiónFull time

Predictions graded

Fenix Montevideo1Plaza Colonia4

HT 1–3Sun 16 Aug 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–1436%

Edges1–233%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 16:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Fénix are overpriced at 2.05 (our estimate 40%), while the draw and Plaza win are underrated.

The market heavily favours Under 2.5, but our model sees a 50% chance, making the Under a poor value bet. Best approach: avoid the home win and consider the draw or Plaza double chance, but expect a low-scoring, tight contest.

Context

Fénix home: 2W 1D 0L, 7 goals for, 3 against in 3 matches.
- Plaza away: 1W 2D 0L, 3 goals for, 1 against in 3 matches.
- Plaza's overall defensive record is 0.9 goals conceded per match.
Plaza away record: 1W 2D 0L in 3 matches.
- Plaza have drawn 2 of their last 3 away games.
- Fénix have drawn 1 of 3 home matches.
Latest H2H: Fénix won 1-0 on 10 May 2026.
- Overall H2H: Plaza Colonia 8 wins, Fénix 5 wins in 20 meetings.
- Last four meetings: 2 Plaza wins, 1 Fénix win, 1 draw.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fenix Montevideo or Draw

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Fenix are unbeaten at home and Plaza draw frequently away, but the odds imply 80% probability, far above our 70% estimate.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Fenix Montevideo

2.05fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 48.8%

0.0ppshort

Fenix's home scoring edge is offset by Plaza's strong away defence, making the home win less likely than the odds suggest.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Fenix's home first-half scoring (1.0 goals per match) and Plaza's away first-half concession (0.33) suggest a goal is likely, but the odds are priced slightly above our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 17 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fenix's strong home scoring and Plaza's solid but less prolific away attack give Fenix a slight edge, supported by home advantage and recent H2H win.
- Fenix home record: 2W 1D 0L, 7 goals for, 3 against in 3 home matches
- Fenix overall form: 3W 2D 1L, 13 goals for, 7 against in 6 matches
- Plaza Colonia away record: 1W 2D 0L, 3 goals for, 1 against in 3 away matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFenix MontevideoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams show a tendency to draw, especially Plaza away, making a stalemate a realistic outcome.
- Fenix home draws: 1 in 3 home matches
- Plaza Colonia away draws: 2 in 3 away matches
- Both teams have drawn 2 of last 5 overall
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Plaza's unbeaten start and defensive solidity make them a threat, but Fenix's home strength balances the scales.
- Plaza Colonia overall form: 3W 3D 0L, 9 goals for, 2 against in 6 matches
- Plaza Colonia away record: 1W 2D 0L, 3 goals for, 1 against in 3 away matches
- Fenix home record: 2W 1D 0L, 7 goals for, 3 against in 3 home matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPlaza ColoniaEstimated chance30%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fenix's unbeaten home record and Plaza's tendency to draw away make Fenix or draw highly likely.
- Fenix home record: 2W 1D 0L in 3 home matches
- Plaza Colonia away record: 1W 2D 0L in 3 away matches
- Fenix overall: 3W 2D 1L in 6 matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostFenix Montevideo or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Plaza's unbeaten record and Fenix's occasional home draws support a double chance for the away side.
- Plaza Colonia overall: 3W 3D 0L in 6 matches
- Plaza Colonia away: 1W 2D 0L in 3 away matches
- Fenix home: 2W 1D 0L in 3 home matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Plaza ColoniaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fenix's home first-half performance is strong, but Plaza's resilience makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Fenix leading at half time: 33% of matches
- Plaza leading at half time: 20% of matches
- Fenix home first half record: 2W 1D 0L in 3 home matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFenix MontevideoEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently go into the break level, making a first-half draw the most likely outcome.
- Fenix half-time draws: 53% of matches (8 of 15)
- Plaza half-time draws: 53% of matches (8 of 15)
- Both teams have drawn at half time in 5 of last 6 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Plaza rarely leads at half time away, so this is a low-probability outcome.
- Plaza leading at half time: 20% of matches
- Plaza away first half record: 0W 2D 1L in 3 away matches
- Fenix trailing at half time: 13% of matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonPlaza ColoniaEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fenix could edge a win after a level first half, but the probability is low due to Plaza's resilience.
- Fenix has won after drawing at half time in 2 of last 5 matches
- Plaza has drawn at half time in 53% of matches
- Fenix home second half performance: 2W 1D 0L in 3 home matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Fenix MontevideoEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time and full time is plausible given both teams' tendencies.
- Both teams draw at half time in 53% of matches
- Plaza away draws: 2 in 3 matches
- Fenix home draws: 1 in 3 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / DrawEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fenix could lead at half time and hold on, but Plaza's strong defense makes this less likely.
- Fenix leading at half time: 33% of matches
- Fenix home wins: 2 in 3 matches
- Plaza trailing at half time: 7% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFenix Montevideo / Fenix MontevideoEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Plaza winning after a level first half is unlikely given Fenix's home strength.
- Plaza away wins: 1 in 3 matches
- Plaza trailing at half time: 7% of matches
- Fenix home losses: 0 in 3 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Plaza ColoniaEstimated chance15%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Plaza leading at half time and winning away is a rare combination.
- Plaza leading at half time: 20% of matches
- Plaza away wins: 1 in 3 matches
- Fenix trailing at half time: 13% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonPlaza Colonia / Plaza ColoniaEstimated chance10%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fenix could lead at half time but be pegged back by Plaza's resilience.
- Fenix leading at half time: 33% of matches
- Fenix home draws: 1 in 3 matches
- Plaza away draws: 2 in 3 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFenix Montevideo / DrawEstimated chance10%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Plaza leading at half time and then drawing is very unlikely.
- Plaza leading at half time: 20% of matches
- Plaza away draws: 2 in 3 matches
- Fenix home draws: 1 in 3 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostPlaza Colonia / DrawEstimated chance5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fenix leading at half time but losing at full time is highly improbable.
- Fenix leading at half time: 33% of matches
- Plaza away wins: 1 in 3 matches
- Fenix home losses: 0 in 3 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFenix Montevideo / Plaza ColoniaEstimated chance5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Plaza leading at half time but losing to Fenix at home is very unlikely.
- Plaza leading at half time: 20% of matches
- Fenix home wins: 2 in 3 matches
- Plaza away losses: 0 in 3 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostPlaza Colonia / Fenix MontevideoEstimated chance5%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have scored consistently, and Fenix's home attack is potent, but Plaza's defense is strong, making BTTS a close call.
- Fenix average goals for: 1.4 per match, against: 0.9
- Plaza Colonia average goals for: 1.3 per match, against: 0.9
- Fenix home: 7 goals for, 3 against in 3 matches; Plaza away: 3 for, 1 against in 3
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fenix's home games tend to be high-scoring, but Plaza's defensive record suggests a moderate total, making over 2.5 a coin flip.
- Fenix home matches average 3.33 total goals (7 for, 3 against in 3)
- Plaza away matches average 1.33 total goals (3 for, 1 against in 3)
- Fenix overall matches average 3.33 total goals (13 for, 7 against in 6)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Plaza's low-scoring away games and strong defense could keep the total under 2.5, especially if they control the tempo.
- Plaza Colonia away matches average 1.33 total goals
- Plaza Colonia overall matches average 1.83 total goals (9 for, 2 against in 6)
- Fenix home matches average 3.33 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have scored in the first half in about half their matches, and Fenix's home first-half scoring is strong, making over 0.5 likely.
- Fenix first half goals: 0.5 per match, first half conceded: 0.3
- Plaza first half goals: 0.5 per match, first half conceded: 0.4
- Fenix home first half: 1.0 goals for per match (3 in 3), Plaza away first half: 0.33 goals for per match (1 in 3)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open, but the data is limited, so confidence is low.
- Fenix second half goals: 0.9 per match (1.4 total - 0.5 first half)
- Plaza second half goals: 0.8 per match (1.3 total - 0.5 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.7 goals per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 80% leaves no cushion vs our 70% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W0-1Plaza ColoniavFenixMay 9, 2026SEG

W1-4FenixvPlaza ColoniaOct 13, 2023PRI

D1-1Plaza ColoniavFenixJun 24, 2023PRI

L3-1Plaza ColoniavFenixMar 5, 2023PRI

W0-1FenixvPlaza ColoniaSep 5, 2022PRI

Fenix Montevideo: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Segunda División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Fenix Montevideo	6	3	2	1	13-7	11	WLWWD
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9-2	12	WDDWW

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Fenix Montevideo

D0-0La LuzAug 8SEG

D1-1CerritoAug 2SEG

W1-0AtenasJul 26SEG

L0-1PaysanduJul 13SEG

W2-0Sportivo HuracanJul 5SEG

L2-3Uruguay MontevideoJun 27SEG

D2-2OrientalJun 20SEG

D1-1ColónJun 13SEG

W3-1CA River PlateJun 6SEG

D1-1RentistasMay 31SEG

D1-1MiramarMay 25SEG

L1-2TacuaremboMay 17SEG

W1-0Plaza ColoniaMay 9SEG

W1-0OrientalMay 2SEG

W4-1AtenasApr 27SEG

Plaza Colonia

D1-1RentistasAug 10SEG

W3-0MiramarAug 1SEG

W2-0TacuaremboJul 25SEG

L2-3CA River PlateJul 11SEG

W1-0La LuzJul 4SEG

L0-1CerritoJun 28SEG

L1-2AtenasJun 20SEG

W2-1PaysanduJun 14SEG

D0-0Sportivo HuracanJun 5SEG

L0-2Uruguay MontevideoMay 30SEG

W3-1OrientalMay 22SEG

W1-0ColónMay 16SEG

L0-1FenixMay 9SEG

W2-0OrientalApr 24SEG

D1-1PaysanduApr 17SEG

Squad & Injuries

Fenix Montevideo

38 available

Attackers12

Midfielders11

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Plaza Colonia

17 available

Attackers3

Midfielders7

Defenders5

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Fenix Montevideo or Draw

Fenix Montevideo

Over 0.5

Result4 of 17 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Markets to Avoid

Fenix Montevideo or Draw

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Fenix Montevideo

Plaza Colonia

Squad & Injuries

Fenix Montevideo

Plaza Colonia