Second LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Marek Dupnitsa3Pirin Blagoevgrad0

HT 3–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges7–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 00:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Marek Dupnitsa are strong favourites at home against a Pirin side that has lost all eight league matches and conceded 27 goals.

The best value is in the half-time/full-time market: Marek/Marek at 2.60 offers a +12 point edge, while over 2.5 goals at 1.83 is also attractive. Avoid the first-half over 0.5 goals market, as the odds are too short.

Context

Pirin Blagoevgrad are 18th in the Second League with 0 points from 8 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 27.
They have lost every league game this season, including a 7-0 defeat at Nesebar on 23 August and a 3-0 home loss to Ludogorets II on 7 September. This poor form suggests they may struggle defensively against Marek, who have won both home matches.
- Pirin Blagoevgrad have 0 points from 8 matches, with 3 goals scored and 27 conceded.
- They lost 7-0 away to Nesebar on 23 August 2026.
- They lost 3-0 at home to Ludogorets II on 7 September 2026.
Marek Dupnitsa midfielder V. Lyubomirov, the team captain, has started none of the five recent fixtures with available lineups.
His six-match suspension ends after this match, so he remains unavailable. Marek must again replace their captain in midfield, reducing an established selection option and leadership presence for the home side.
- The disciplinary decision imposed a six-match ban following Lyubomirov’s red card against Etar.
- Marek’s appeal was rejected and the six-match suspension remained in force.
- Marek confirmed on 5 September that Lyubomirov was still suspended.
- V. Lyubomirov started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 00:40 · Europe/BucharestMarek 1915 official match previewmarek1915.com · 5 Sep 2026Appeal decision on Marek suspensionswww.palmssport.bg · 14 Aug 2026
Marek Dupnitsa are 13th in the Second League with 10 points from 8 matches.
At home, they have won both games: 1-0 against Nesebar on 2 September and 4-2 against Dobrudzha on 23 August. This strong home form contrasts with Pirin's poor away record, where they have lost all four matches and conceded 15 goals.
- Marek have won both home matches this season, scoring 5 and conceding 2.
- They beat Nesebar 1-0 at home on 2 September 2026.
- They beat Dobrudzha 4-2 at home on 23 August 2026.
Marek Dupnitsa defender H. Kaymakanski has also started none of the five recent fixtures with available lineups.
His six-match ban also concludes after this match, further narrowing Marek's defensive options. The team will need another adjustment in their back line against Pirin.
- The disciplinary decision imposed a six-match ban on Kaymakanski after the Etar match.
- The appeal decision left the six-match sanction unchanged.
- Marek confirmed on 5 September that Kaymakanski was still suspended.
- H. Kaymakanski started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 00:40 · Europe/BucharestMarek 1915 official match previewmarek1915.com · 5 Sep 2026Appeal decision on Marek suspensionswww.palmssport.bg · 14 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Marek's strong home form and Pirin's catastrophic away record make a home win highly likely.
- Marek home record this season: 2 wins from 2, 5 goals scored, 2 conceded.
- Pirin away record this season: 0 wins from 4, 1 goal scored, 15 conceded.
- Pirin overall: 0 points from 8 matches, 3 goals scored, 27 conceded.
- H2H last 5: Marek won 2, drew 2, lost 1, including a 2-0 away win in July 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarek DupnitsaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin's inability to win away and Marek's solid home form make a home win or draw very likely.
- Marek home record: 2 wins from 2.
- Pirin away record: 0 wins from 4, 15 goals conceded.
- Pirin overall: 0 points from 8 matches.
- H2H: Marek unbeaten in 4 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMarek Dupnitsa or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marek's tendency to lead at half time and Pirin's tendency to trail make a home half-time lead likely.
- Marek leading at half time in 47% of matches.
- Pirin trailing at half time in 47% of matches.
- Marek first half goals: 0.6 per game.
- Pirin first half goals conceded: 1.1 per game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonMarek DupnitsaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Marek's home dominance and Pirin's poor away form support a home win at both half-time and full-time.
- Marek home record: 2 wins from 2.
- Pirin away record: 0 wins from 4.
- Marek leading at half time in 47% of matches.
- Pirin trailing at half time in 47% of matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonMarek Dupnitsa / Marek DupnitsaEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Marek could dominate both halves against a very weak Pirin side.
- Marek home record: 2 wins from 2.
- Pirin away record: 0 wins from 4, 15 goals conceded.
- Marek leading at half time in 47% of matches.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostMarek DupnitsaEstimated chance35%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin's leaky defense and Marek's home scoring suggest a high-scoring match.
- Pirin conceded 27 goals in 8 matches (3.4 per game).
- Pirin away conceded 15 goals in 4 matches (3.75 per game).
- Marek home scored 5 goals in 2 matches (2.5 per game).
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin's poor scoring record makes it unlikely both teams will score.
- Pirin scored only 3 goals in 8 matches (0.4 per game).
- Pirin away scored 1 goal in 4 matches (0.25 per game).
- Marek home conceded 2 goals in 2 matches (1.0 per game).
- H2H: Pirin failed to score in 2 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin's attacking struggles give Marek a good chance of a clean sheet.
- Pirin scored only 3 goals in 8 matches.
- Pirin away scored 1 goal in 4 matches.
- Marek home conceded 2 goals in 2 matches.
- H2H: Marek kept a clean sheet in the most recent meeting (2-0).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPirin Blagoevgrad not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half stats suggest a goal before the break is likely.
- Marek first half goals: 0.6 per game average.
- Pirin first half goals conceded: 1.1 per game average.
- Pirin trailing at half time in 47% of matches.
- Marek leading at half time in 47% of matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Pirin's defensive frailty could lead to multiple second-half goals.
- Pirin conceded 27 goals in 8 matches, many in second halves.
- Marek scored 5 goals in 2 home matches.
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 17% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 12%; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W0-2Pirin BlagoevgradvMarekJul 11, 2026FRI

D0-0Pirin BlagoevgradvMarekMay 2, 2026SEC

L3-1MarekvPirin BlagoevgradNov 2, 2025SEC

W0-1MarekvPirin BlagoevgradMar 22, 2025SEC

D1-1Pirin BlagoevgradvMarekSep 7, 2024SEC

Marek Dupnitsa: 3 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Second League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	Marek Dupnitsa Vtora liga (Relegation)	8	3	1	4	7-9	10	LWDWL
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad Relegation	8	0	0	8	3-27	0	LLLLL

10pt gap between teamsMarek Dupnitsa in relegation zonePirin Blagoevgrad in relegation zone

Recent Form

Marek Dupnitsa

L0-3Yantra 2019Sep 6SEC

W1-0NesebarSep 2SEC

D0-0Sportist SvogeAug 29SEC

W4-2DobrudzhaAug 23SEC

L0-1MontanaAug 16SEC

L0-1Etar Veliko TarnovoAug 7SEC

L1-2Spartak PlevenAug 1SEC

W1-0FratriaJul 25SEC

L0-1VihrenJul 18FRI

W2-0Pirin BlagoevgradJul 11FRI

L0-3CSKA SofiaJul 3FRI

L0-3Septemvri SofiaJun 27FRI

W1-0Etar Veliko TarnovoMay 23SEC

D1-1Hebar 1918May 15SEC

W3-0Chernomorets 1919 BurgasMay 11SEC

Pirin Blagoevgrad

L0-3Ludogorets IISep 7SEC

L0-2Yantra 2019Sep 2SEC

L0-3Chernomorets 1919 BurgasAug 29SEC

L0-7NesebarAug 23SEC

L2-3Hebar 1918Aug 18SEC

L0-1Sportist SvogeAug 9SEC

L0-3CSKA Sofia IIAug 3SEC

L1-5DobrudzhaJul 28SEC

L0-2MarekJul 11FRI

L0-3FratriaMay 23SEC

W4-1SevlievoMay 15SEC

L0-2Sportist SvogeMay 11SEC

D0-0MarekMay 2SEC

L2-3Etar Veliko TarnovoApr 25SEC

D2-2Hebar 1918Apr 16SEC

Squad & Injuries

Marek Dupnitsa

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Pirin Blagoevgrad

32 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Marek Dupnitsa3Pirin Blagoevgrad0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Marek Dupnitsa

Marek Dupnitsa or Draw

Marek Dupnitsa

Marek Dupnitsa at half-time / Marek Dupnitsa at full-time

Over 2.5

No

Over 0.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Markets to Avoid

Pirin Blagoevgrad

Pirin Blagoevgrad, draw no bet

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Marek Dupnitsa

Pirin Blagoevgrad

Squad & Injuries

Marek Dupnitsa

Pirin Blagoevgrad