Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy2Atletico Rafaela1

HT 1–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges3–443%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 00:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Gimnasia's strong home form and Atletico's dreadful away scoring record make a home win likely, but the best value is in 'Atletico Under 0.5 goals' and '1st Half Under 0.5 goals', where the model sees significant edges over the market.

Context

Gimnasia Jujuy sit 3rd in Group 2 with 49 points, while Atletico Rafaela are 9th with 39 points.
Gimnasia Jujuy have been very strong at home, winning 10 of 14 matches and scoring 26 goals. Atletico Rafaela have struggled away, winning only once in 14 attempts and scoring just 5 goals. This suggests Gimnasia Jujuy are likely to control the game, but Atletico Rafaela's solid defensive record away from home (15 goals conceded) could keep the score close.
- Gimnasia Jujuy home record: 10 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in 14 matches.
- Atletico Rafaela away record: 1 win, 6 draws, 7 losses in 14 matches.
Atletico Rafaela midfielder J. Capurro has started all five recent team fixtures with available lineups.
His sending-off at Agropecuario leaves his availability for this match unresolved. Until the disciplinary outcome is confirmed, Atletico's central-midfield selection and organisation carry uncertainty.
- Diario La Opinión reported that Capurro was sent off in the 42nd minute of Atlético’s 2-0 loss at Agropecuario on 6 September.
- Radio Rafaela independently reported that Capurro was dismissed before half-time in the same match.
- J. Capurro started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 00:54 · Europe/BucharestDiario La Opinión de Rafaelawww.diariolaopinion.com.ar · 6 Sep 2026Radio Rafaelaradiorafaela.com.ar · 7 Sep 2026
Atletico Rafaela are 9th in Group 2 with 39 points.
Atletico Rafaela lost 0-2 away to Agropecuario on 2026-09-06. They have only one away win in 14 matches this season, with 6 draws and 7 losses. This poor away form could make it difficult for them to get a result against a strong home side like Gimnasia Jujuy.
- Atletico Rafaela lost 0-2 away to Agropecuario on 2026-09-06.
- Atletico Rafaela away record: 1 win, 6 draws, 7 losses.
Gimnasia are third on 49 points, two behind leaders Tristán Suárez, while Atletico have dropped out of the Torneo Reducido places.
The result has direct incentive value for both teams. Gimnasia can close on the leaders with a home win, while Atletico need points to regain a qualification position.
- Todo Jujuy reported on 7 September that Gimnasia were third on 49 points, two behind leaders Tristán Suárez.
- Diario La Opinión reported that Atlético’s loss at Agropecuario took them out of the Zona B Torneo Reducido places.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 00:54 · Europe/BucharestTodo Jujuywww.todojujuy.com · 7 Sep 2026Diario La Opinión de Rafaeladiariolaopinion.com.ar · 8 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gimnasia's strong home form and Atletico Rafaela's poor away record, combined with H2H dominance, make a home win likely.
- Home record: 10W 3D 1L, 26 goals for, 10 against in 14 home matches
- Away record: 1W 6D 7L, 5 goals for, 15 against in 14 away matches
- Last 5 H2H: Gimnasia won 3, drew 1, lost 1 (all at home or neutral)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGimnasia y Esgrima JujuyEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gimnasia's home resilience and Atletico's away struggles make a home win or draw highly probable.
- Gimnasia home: 13 of 14 matches without defeat
- Atletico away: only 1 win in 14 matches
- H2H: Gimnasia unbeaten in 4 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring and balanced early play suggest a draw at the break.
- Gimnasia leading at half-time in only 20% of matches
- Atletico trailing at half-time in 27% of matches
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%

Goals2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Atletico's low-scoring away games and historically tight H2H meetings support a low total.
- Atletico away: 5 goals scored, 15 conceded in 14 matches (avg 1.43 total goals)
- Gimnasia home: 26 goals scored, 10 conceded in 14 matches (avg 2.57 total goals)
- H2H: 4 of last 5 meetings had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Atletico's away scoring struggles and Gimnasia's solid home defense make a clean sheet for the home side likely.
- Atletico away: scored in only 5 of 14 away matches
- Gimnasia home: kept clean sheet in 6 of 14 home matches
- H2H: Atletico failed to score in 4 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, especially Atletico, making a goalless first half plausible.
- Gimnasia first half goals: 0.5 per match average
- Atletico first half goals: 0.1 per match average
- Atletico first half goals conceded: 0.3 per match average
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
As the match opens up, at least one goal in the second half is likely given Gimnasia's attacking intent.
- Gimnasia average 1.5 goals per match overall
- Atletico average 0.5 goals per match overall
- H2H: 4 of last 5 meetings had a goal in the second half
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atletico's away scoring drought and Gimnasia's defensive solidity at home support a home clean sheet.
- Gimnasia home: 6 clean sheets in 14 matches
- Atletico away: failed to score in 9 of 14 matches
- H2H: Atletico failed to score in 4 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAtletico Rafaela not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gimnasia's home scoring rate suggests they can net at least twice against a weak away defense.
- Gimnasia home: 26 goals in 14 matches (1.86 per match)
- Atletico away: conceded 15 goals in 14 matches (1.07 per match)
- Gimnasia scored 2+ goals in 8 of 14 home matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonGimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Atletico's away scoring record is extremely poor, making a goalless outing likely.
- Atletico away: 5 goals in 14 matches (0.36 per match)
- Atletico failed to score in 9 of 14 away matches
- Gimnasia home: conceded 10 goals in 14 matches (0.71 per match)
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostAtletico Rafaela under 0.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Atletico Rafaela's away form is terrible and the odds do not compensate for the low probability.

Prediction history

Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy has fulfilled 3 of 6 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 55.5%. The team has been stronger at home, winning all 3 home matches when projected to win, while failing to win in 2 away matches. The current prediction of 55% sits within the historical range of 45% to 68%.

Recent evidence for Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Primera Nacional