Fredrikstad1Sarpsborg1

HT 1–1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 17:15 Predictions graded

Predictions3–925%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 14–6On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 17:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Fredrikstad are the likely winners in this derby, but the best betting value is on the double chance (Fredrikstad or Draw) at 1.45, with a small positive edge.

Avoid the over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets, as the odds already price in high-scoring scenarios and offer no value.

Context

Fredrikstad sit 8th with 26 points and Sarpsborg are 9th with 24 points after 19 matches.
Fredrikstad's recent league results include a 4-1 win at Lillestrom on 30 August and a 1-0 home win over Kristiansund on 16 August. Sarpsborg have drawn three and lost two of their last five, including a 2-1 home loss to Sandefjord on 16 August. This form gap could influence the match, but Sarpsborg's draws show they are hard to beat.
- Fredrikstad won 4-1 at Lillestrom on 2026-08-30 and 1-0 at home to Kristiansund on 2026-08-16.
- Sarpsborg drew 2-2 with Valerenga on 2026-09-06 and lost 2-1 at home to Sandefjord on 2026-08-16.
- Fredrikstad's last five league form is LWWWW; Sarpsborg's is DDLLD.
Sarpsborg midfielder Sondre Sørli came on in the 63rd minute against Vålerenga on 6 September.
He scored directly from a free kick in the 81st minute, confirming a current set-piece threat among Sarpsborg's available midfield options. Fredrikstad will need to be disciplined in shooting-range dead-ball situations.
- Sørli entered Sarpsborg 08's 2-2 draw with Vålerenga in the 63rd minute on 6 September.
- He scored Sarpsborg 08's second goal from a free kick in the 81st minute.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 17:46 · Europe/BucharestSarpsborg 08: Vålerenga match reportwww.sarpsborg08.no · 6 Sep 2026
The teams have met five times since 2024, with each side winning twice and one draw.
In the most recent league match on 9 May 2026, Sarpsborg won 2-1 at home. However, Fredrikstad won 2-1 at home in the NM Cupen on 8 March 2026. The last league meeting at Fredrikstad was a 1-1 draw on 1 June 2025, suggesting home advantage may not be decisive.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Fredrikstad on 2026-05-09 (Eliteserien).
- Fredrikstad 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF on 2026-03-08 (NM Cupen).
- Fredrikstad 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF on 2025-06-01 (Eliteserien).
Fredrikstad's home record is 5 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses; Sarpsborg's away record is 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses.
Fredrikstad have scored 12 goals and conceded 10 at home, while Sarpsborg have scored 11 and conceded 16 away. This suggests Fredrikstad are more comfortable at home, but Sarpsborg's away draws show they can grind out results.
- Fredrikstad home record: 5W 1D 3L, 12 goals for, 10 against.
- Sarpsborg away record: 2W 3D 5L, 11 goals for, 16 against.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams show defensive vulnerability and recent H2H meetings have trended over, but the odds already price in a high-scoring game, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fredrikstad's strong home form and recent winning momentum, combined with Sarpsborg's poor away record, give the hosts a clear edge in this derby.
- Fredrikstad home record: 5W 1D 3L, 12 goals for, 10 against in 9 home matches
- Fredrikstad last 5 league matches: 4W 1L, including 4-1 away win at Lillestrom
- Sarpsborg away record: 2W 3D 5L, 11 goals for, 16 against in 10 away matches
- H2H last 5: Fredrikstad won 2, Sarpsborg won 2, 1 draw; Fredrikstad won last home meeting 2-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFredrikstadEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fredrikstad's home strength and Sarpsborg's winless recent away form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Fredrikstad home record: 5W 1D 3L, 12 goals for, 10 against
- Sarpsborg away record: 2W 3D 5L, 11 goals for, 16 against
- Fredrikstad last 5 league matches: 4W 1L
- Sarpsborg last 5 league matches: 0W 3D 2L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFredrikstad or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fredrikstad's home advantage and Sarpsborg's tendency to start slowly away give the hosts a modest edge in the first half.
- Fredrikstad led at halftime in 40% of matches, trailed in 40%
- Sarpsborg led at halftime in 33%, trailed in 20%
- Fredrikstad home matches: led at halftime in 4 of 9, drew in 3, trailed in 2
- Sarpsborg away matches: led at halftime in 2 of 10, drew in 5, trailed in 3
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFredrikstadEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with a halftime lead is plausible given Fredrikstad's home form, but the probability is not high due to Sarpsborg's resilience.
- Fredrikstad home record: 5W 1D 3L
- Fredrikstad led at halftime in 40% of matches
- Sarpsborg away record: 2W 3D 5L
- Sarpsborg trailed at halftime in 20% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFredrikstad/FredrikstadEstimated chance30%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown vulnerability in defense, and the derby atmosphere often leads to open play, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Fredrikstad home matches average 2.44 total goals (12 for, 10 against in 9 games)
- Sarpsborg away matches average 2.7 total goals (11 for, 16 against in 10 games)
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
- Fredrikstad recent matches: 4 of last 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and defensive weaknesses, making both teams scoring likely.
- Fredrikstad scored in 8 of 9 home matches this season
- Sarpsborg scored in 8 of 10 away matches this season
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5 meetings
- Fredrikstad conceded in 6 of 9 home matches; Sarpsborg conceded in 9 of 10 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, with combined averages suggesting a high probability of at least one goal before the break.
- Fredrikstad first-half goals: 0.7 per match average; conceded 0.7
- Sarpsborg first-half goals: 0.9 per match average; conceded 0.9
- Fredrikstad led at halftime in 40% of matches, trailed in 40%
- Sarpsborg led at halftime in 33%, trailed in 20%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is common in matches involving these teams, but the probability is only moderate due to variability.
- Fredrikstad average total goals per match: 2.7 (1.5 for, 1.2 against)
- Sarpsborg average total goals per match: 2.8 (1.3 for, 1.5 against)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals
- Both teams show higher scoring in second halves in recent matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fredrikstad's defensive record at home is mixed, and Sarpsborg usually scores away, making a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Fredrikstad kept clean sheets in 3 of 9 home matches
- Sarpsborg failed to score in 2 of 10 away matches
- Fredrikstad conceded in 6 of 9 home matches
- Sarpsborg scored in 8 of 10 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSarpsborg not to scoreEstimated chance30%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average around 10-11 total corners, making over 9.5 a reasonable but not strong bet.
- Fredrikstad average corners per match: 3.7, opponent corners: 6.9 (total 10.6)
- Sarpsborg average corners per match: 4.8, opponent corners: 5.9 (total 10.7)
- H2H last 5: total corners ranged from 8 to 14, average 10.8
- Fredrikstad home matches average 10.2 total corners; Sarpsborg away matches average 10.4
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages are close to the line, making this a coin-flip market.
- Fredrikstad average shots on target: 4.2, opponent: 4.5 (total 8.7)
- Sarpsborg average shots on target: 4.1, opponent: 4.9 (total 9.0)
- Fredrikstad home matches average 8.8 total shots on target
- Sarpsborg away matches average 9.2 total shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The derby intensity and historical card averages suggest a slightly higher likelihood of over 3.5 cards.
- Fredrikstad average yellow cards: 2.0, opponent: 1.6 (total 3.6)
- Sarpsborg average yellow cards: 1.5, opponent: 1.9 (total 3.4)
- H2H last 5: total cards ranged from 2 to 6, average 3.8
- Derby matches often see increased card counts
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 38% leaves no cushion vs our 30% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Fredrikstad has struggled to clear Over 2.5 goals recently

Fredrikstad has fulfilled Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 62%, but only 40% of predictions matched, with missed predictions averaging 66.7% compared to 55% for matched ones. At home, only 1 of 3 such predictions succeeded, while the current probability of 55% sits within the historical range.

Recent evidence for Fredrikstad5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Eliteserien