Botev Plovdiv2Lokomotiv Plovdiv0

HT 2–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges6–275%

PossPossession 38%–62%ShotsShots 6–7On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 2–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 17:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Botev are clear favourites at home against a Lokomotiv side with zero away goals this season, but the match-winner odds offer no value.

The best betting edge is over 1.5 home goals at 1.95 (60% model probability vs 51.3% implied), with over 2.5 total goals also worth a look.

Context

Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th in the First League with 6 points from 8 matches, sitting just two points above the relegation line.
Their away record is 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 0 goals scored and 6 conceded. This pattern suggests they struggle to create chances on the road, which could continue against Botev Plovdiv. However, the sample is only four matches, so it may not fully reflect their true ability.
- Away record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses, 0 goals for, 6 goals against.
- Recent away losses: 0-2 at CSKA 1948 on 2026-08-28, 0-2 at Levski Sofia on 2026-08-07, 0-1 at Spartak Varna on 2026-08-03.
Botev Plovdiv are 7th in the First League with 10 points from 8 matches, competing for a Conference League group spot.
At home, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 6 goals scored and 6 conceded. They have beaten Cherno More Varna 1-0 and Spartak Varna 3-2, but lost 1-3 to Levski Sofia. This mixed home form shows they can be competitive, though they are not dominant.
- Home record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 6 goals for, 6 goals against.
- Recent home results: 1-0 win vs Cherno More Varna on 2026-08-01, 3-2 win vs Spartak Varna on 2026-08-10, 1-3 loss vs Levski Sofia on 2026-08-30.
The ninth-round Plovdiv derby is confirmed for 13 September at Hristo Botev Stadium.
The local-rivalry stakes and confirmed home setting give both teams a direct incentive within the league round. Botev's home advantage and Lokomotiv's poor away form shape the likely match dynamics, though the derby context adds uncertainty.
- Botev's official announcement identifies the match as the Plovdiv derby in the ninth round of the First League.
- The club confirms a 13 September kickoff at Hristo Botev Stadium.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 17:51 · Europe/BucharestPFC Botev Plovdiv: ticket sales for the city derbybotevplovdiv.bg · 1 Sep 2026
The Plovdiv derby has been played five times in the last year across league and cup competitions.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv won the most recent league meeting 2-1 at home on 2026-05-25 and also won 2-0 away on 2026-05-03. However, Botev Plovdiv won 4-0 in the cup on 2025-11-01, showing the rivalry can produce lopsided results. Recent head-to-head form slightly favors Lokomotiv, but the sample is small.
- 2026-05-25: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 Botev Plovdiv (First League)
- 2026-05-03: Botev Plovdiv 0-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv (First League)
- 2025-11-01: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-4 Botev Plovdiv (First League)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Botev's home advantage and Lokomotiv's poor away form (no wins, no goals in 4 away games) make the hosts the likeliest winner, though the derby context adds uncertainty.
- Botev home record this season: 2W 1D 1L, 6 goals scored, 6 conceded
- Lokomotiv away record this season: 0W 0D 4L, 0 goals scored, 6 conceded
- Botev overall form last 5 league matches: WLLLW (3W 2L)
- Lokomotiv overall form last 5 league matches: WLLLL (1W 4L)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBotev PlovdivEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Botev's solid home form and Lokomotiv's inability to win away make a home win or draw highly probable.
- Botev home record: 2W 1D 1L (75% unbeaten at home)
- Lokomotiv away record: 0W 0D 4L (0% unbeaten away)
- H2H last 5 meetings: Botev won 2, drew 1, lost 2
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBotev Plovdiv or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Botev's superior first-half scoring and Lokomotiv's tendency to trail at halftime give the hosts a slight edge.
- Botev led at halftime in 53% of matches this season
- Lokomotiv trailed at halftime in 40% of matches
- Botev average 0.9 first-half goals vs Lokomotiv's 0.4
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBotev PlovdivEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with a halftime lead is plausible given Botev's first-half strength and Lokomotiv's away struggles.
- Botev led at halftime in 53% of matches and won 37.5% overall
- Lokomotiv trailed at halftime in 40% and lost 75% overall
- Botev home record: 2W 1D 1L
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonBotev Plovdiv/Botev PlovdivEstimated chance30%

Goals5 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Botev's matches tend to be high-scoring, especially at home, and the derby intensity may push the total over 2.5 goals.
- Botev home matches average 3.0 total goals (6 scored, 6 conceded in 4 games)
- Lokomotiv away matches average 1.5 total goals (0 scored, 6 conceded in 4 games)
- Botev overall average 3.0 total goals per match (11 scored, 14 conceded in 8 games)
- Lokomotiv overall average 1.75 total goals per match (4 scored, 10 conceded in 8 games)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Botev's tendency to both score and concede, combined with Lokomotiv's occasional scoring in derbies, makes both teams scoring likely.
- Botev scored in 7 of 8 league matches this season
- Botev conceded in 7 of 8 league matches this season
- Lokomotiv scored in only 3 of 8 league matches, but scored in 2 of last 3 H2H meetings
- H2H last 5 meetings: both teams scored in 3 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Botev's strong first-half scoring and Lokomotiv's first-half defensive weakness suggest at least one goal before halftime.
- Botev average 0.9 first-half goals per match this season
- Botev led at halftime in 53% of matches
- Lokomotiv average 0.4 first-half goals per match, but concede 0.7 first-half goals per match
- H2H last 5 meetings: first-half goals in 4 of 5 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is less predictable, but Botev's home matches tend to produce goals after the break.
- Botev average 1.0 second-half goals per match (total 1.9 minus 0.9 first-half)
- Lokomotiv average 0.5 second-half goals per match (total 0.9 minus 0.4 first-half)
- Botev home matches average 1.5 second-half goals (3.0 total minus 1.5 first-half)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Botev's defensive record is poor, and Lokomotiv have shown they can score in derbies.
- Botev kept a clean sheet in only 1 of 8 league matches this season
- Botev conceded in 3 of 4 home matches
- Lokomotiv scored in 3 of 8 league matches, including 2 goals in last H2H meeting
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostLokomotiv Plovdiv to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lokomotiv's away defense is leaky, and Botev are consistent scorers at home.
- Lokomotiv kept a clean sheet in only 2 of 8 league matches this season
- Lokomotiv conceded in all 4 away matches (6 goals total)
- Botev scored in 7 of 8 league matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBotev Plovdiv to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Botev's home scoring rate and Lokomotiv's away defensive frailty support over 1.5 home goals.
- Botev average 1.5 goals per home match (6 goals in 4 games)
- Botev scored 2+ goals in 3 of 4 home matches
- Lokomotiv conceded 6 goals in 4 away matches (1.5 per game)
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBotev Plovdiv over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lokomotiv's away scoring drought makes under 1.5 away goals likely.
- Lokomotiv scored 0 goals in 4 away matches this season
- Lokomotiv average 0.5 goals per match overall
- Botev conceded 6 goals in 4 home matches (1.5 per game), but Lokomotiv's away attack is weak
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonLokomotiv Plovdiv under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Botev rarely keep clean sheets, so a win without conceding is unlikely.
- Botev kept a clean sheet in only 1 of 8 league matches
- Botev conceded in 3 of 4 home matches
- Lokomotiv scored in 3 of 8 league matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lokomotiv's away form is terrible, making an away win without conceding highly improbable.
- Lokomotiv have not won away this season (0W 0D 4L)
- Lokomotiv scored 0 away goals
- Botev scored in 7 of 8 league matches
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance85%