Resistencia13 de Noviembre2

HT 1–2Sat 12 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–746%

Edges5–456%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 23:59 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is Resistencia or Draw (Double Chance) at 1.60, with a +15.5 point edge driven by Resistencia's strong home form and 3 de Noviembre's terrible away record.

Avoid the away win and away first-half lead markets, as they are significantly overpriced relative to the visitors' poor road performance.

Context

3 de Noviembre are 15th in the 16-team Division Intermedia with 19 points from 23 matches. Their away record is the worst in the league.
They have won only once away from home, drawing once and losing nine times. In those 11 away games they scored 10 goals and conceded 20. Resistencia have a solid home record with six wins, three draws, and two losses in 11 home matches. This contrast suggests Resistencia can control the game and create chances against a defence that struggles on the road.
- 3 de Noviembre away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 9 losses in 11 matches.
- They have conceded 20 goals away, an average of 1.8 per game.
- Resistencia home record: 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in 11 matches.
3 de Noviembre enter this match after a 1-0 win over Sol de América on 8 September, but they remain in the relegation zone with three teams due to go down.
The club's survival situation means a draw is unlikely to be treated as a satisfactory result, so they are expected to push for a win. The report that they need consecutive victories underlines how urgent this fixture is for their season.
- ABC Color reported that 3 de Noviembre beat Sol de América 1-0 on 8 September.
- The same report said the club remained in the danger zone and needed consecutive wins to remain in División Intermedia.
- Three teams are due to be relegated from the competition.
ReportedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 23:57 · Europe/BucharestABC Color: El 3 de Noviembre se aferra a la ilusión de la permanenciawww.abc.com.py · 8 Sep 2026
Resistencia are 6th in the table with 32 points. Their home record is a key reason for their mid-table position.
At home they have scored 17 goals and conceded 12, showing a positive goal difference. In contrast, their away record is weaker with only two wins in 12 matches. This home advantage could be decisive against a team that struggles away from home.
- Resistencia home record: 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses.
- They have scored 17 goals and conceded 12 at home.
- Their away record: 2 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses.
The bottom team in the Division Intermedia is relegated. 3 de Noviembre are currently 15th, only above Encarnación on goal difference.
With 19 points from 23 matches, they are in a precarious position. Their recent form has been mixed, but their away struggles make this match difficult. A loss could leave them in the relegation zone, so they may play with urgency.
- 3 de Noviembre are 15th with 19 points.
- Encarnación are 16th with 19 points, but have a worse goal difference.
- The relegation line is rank 16.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Resistencia's strong home form and 3 de Noviembre's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, supported by the structural home/away signal.
- Resistencia home record: 6W 3D 2L in 11 matches (17 goals for, 12 against).
- 3 de Noviembre away record: 1W 1D 9L in 11 matches (10 goals for, 20 against).
- Resistencia overall rank 6th with 32 points vs 3 de Noviembre 15th with 19 points.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostResistenciaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Resistencia's strong home unbeaten rate and 3 de Noviembre's away struggles make the double chance highly likely.
- Resistencia home record: 6W 3D 2L (82% unbeaten at home).
- 3 de Noviembre away record: 1W 1D 9L (only 18% unbeaten away).
- H2H last meeting ended 1-1 draw.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostResistencia or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams show similar first-half patterns with a high likelihood of being level at the break.
- Resistencia leading at half time in 20% of matches, trailing in 20%.
- 3 de Noviembre leading at half time in 20% of matches, trailing in 27%.
- Both teams have high draw rates at half time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Resistencia win is a plausible scenario given home advantage and away struggles.
- Resistencia home matches often see them win after a level first half.
- 3 de Noviembre away matches often see them lose after a level first half.
- H2H last meeting was 1-1 draw.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/ResistenciaEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Resistencia's home advantage and 3 de Noviembre's away weakness make Resistencia or draw at half time likely.
- Resistencia first half record: leading 20%, drawing 60%, trailing 20%.
- 3 de Noviembre first half record: leading 20%, drawing 53%, trailing 27%.
- Combined probability of Resistencia leading or drawing at half time is high.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostResistencia or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high total goals, and 3 de Noviembre's leaky away defense supports over 2.5 goals.
- Resistencia home matches average 2.64 total goals (17 for, 12 against in 11).
- 3 de Noviembre away matches average 2.73 total goals (10 for, 20 against in 11).
- 3 de Noviembre recent away form includes 3-4 and 0-4 scorelines.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Resistencia scored in 9 of 11 home matches (82%).
- 3 de Noviembre scored in 8 of 11 away matches (73%).
- 3 de Noviembre conceded in 10 of 11 away matches (91%).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half scoring rates, making over 0.5 first-half goals probable.
- Resistencia first half goals average 0.5 per match overall.
- 3 de Noviembre first half goals average 0.6 per match overall.
- Combined first half goal rate suggests at least one goal in 65% of matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring rates are moderate, giving a borderline chance for over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Resistencia second half goals average 0.6 per match (1.1 total - 0.5 first half).
- 3 de Noviembre second half goals average 0.9 per match (1.5 total - 0.6 first half).
- Combined second half average is 1.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Resistencia's home defense is not solid, and 3 de Noviembre regularly score away, making a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Resistencia kept clean sheets in only 2 of 11 home matches (18%).
- 3 de Noviembre scored in 8 of 11 away matches (73%).
- Resistencia conceded in 9 of 11 home matches (82%).
BetBugs · Team to Scorewon3 de Noviembre to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
3 de Noviembre's away defense is very poor, and Resistencia's home scoring is consistent, making an away clean sheet highly unlikely.
- 3 de Noviembre kept clean sheets in only 1 of 11 away matches (9%).
- Resistencia scored in 9 of 11 home matches (82%).
- 3 de Noviembre conceded in 10 of 11 away matches (91%).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonResistencia to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Resistencia's home scoring rate and 3 de Noviembre's away defensive weakness support over 1.5 home goals.
- Resistencia average 1.55 goals per home match (17 goals in 11).
- Resistencia scored 2+ goals in 6 of 11 home matches (55%).
- 3 de Noviembre concede an average of 1.82 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostResistencia over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
3 de Noviembre's away scoring rate and Resistencia's home defensive lapses make over 0.5 away goals likely.
- 3 de Noviembre average 0.91 goals per away match (10 goals in 11).
- 3 de Noviembre scored in 8 of 11 away matches (73%).
- Resistencia conceded in 9 of 11 home matches (82%).
BetBugs · Away Goals Totalwon3 de Noviembre over 0.5Estimated chance70%