Jonsereds IF3Torslanda IK2

HT 1–1Sat 12 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–285%

Edges6–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 23:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Jonsered's strong home form and Torslanda's poor recent run make the hosts the likelier winners, but the best value lies in the double chance market (Jonsered or Draw at 1.70, estimated 78% probability).

Avoid Over 2.5 goals and first-half goal markets, as the odds are too short relative to our model.

Context

Torslanda IK are 10th in Division 2 - Västra Götaland with 22 points from 20 matches.
Their recent run includes a 5-2 home loss to Böljan on 5 September and a 3-1 away loss to Hestrafor on 29 August. This poor form suggests defensive issues, as they have conceded 12 goals in those four defeats. However, their away record is more balanced with two wins, five draws, and three losses, so they may still be competitive on the road.
- Lost 5-2 at home to Böljan on 5 September 2026.
- Lost 3-1 away to Hestrafor on 29 August 2026.
- Lost 4-1 away to Qviding FIF on 22 August 2026.
- Lost 2-1 at home to Dalstorps on 15 August 2026.
Jonsereds IF are 4th in the table with 35 points and a home record of six wins, three draws, and one loss.
Their home form includes a 4-2 win over Astrio on 30 August and a 2-1 win over Onsala on 15 August. They also won the reverse fixture 1-0 at Torslanda on 31 May. This suggests they are comfortable at home and have already beaten this opponent, though their recent away loss to Qviding FIF shows they are not invincible.
- Home record: 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in 10 matches.
- Beat Astrio 4-2 at home on 30 August 2026.
- Beat Torslanda 1-0 away on 31 May 2026.
Jonsered have identified the congested race for the qualification places as the defining context for September, with this fixture one of two home league matches in the month.
A home result directly affects their ability to stay in that group, giving them a concrete incentive to pursue a win rather than treat the fixture as routine. The club said only a few points separated the teams in places two through six, so the margin for error is small.
- Jonsered said September could be one of the season's most decisive months.
- The club said only a few points separated the teams in places two through six.
- Jonsered listed Torslanda as a home league fixture on 12 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 23:28 · Europe/BucharestJonsereds IF — Månadens matcher - September 2026www.svenskalag.se · 31 Aug 2026
Torslanda IK's season averages show they concede 1.3 goals in the first half and trail at half-time in 60% of matches.
In their last five matches, they were behind at half-time in four, including 3-0 down to Böljan and 2-0 down to Hestrafor. Jonsereds IF score an average of 0.5 first-half goals, so they may not exploit this immediately, but Torslanda's slow starts could leave them chasing the game.
- Torslanda IK average 1.3 first-half goals conceded per match.
- They have trailed at half-time in 60% of matches.
- In their last five matches, they were behind at half-time in four.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.40fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Over 3.5

2.00fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 50%

−8.0ppshort

High-scoring tendencies exist, but the odds do not offer value for Over 3.5.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Torslanda's poor first-half defensive record makes a first-half goal likely, but the odds are too short.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Over 1.5

1.95fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 51.3%

−13.0ppshort

First-half scoring is possible but not likely enough to justify the odds.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Jonsered's strong home form and Torslanda's poor recent run give the hosts a clear edge, reinforced by their earlier away win in the H2H.
- Jonsered home record: 6W 3D 1L in 10, 23 goals scored, 17 conceded
- Torslanda away record: 2W 5D 3L in 10, 17 goals scored, 16 conceded
- Jonsered last 5 form: LWDWD (8 pts); Torslanda last 5 form: LLLLW (3 pts)
- H2H this season: Jonsered won 1-0 away at Torslanda
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJonsereds IFEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jonsered have lost only once at home all season, making a home win or draw highly likely against a struggling Torslanda side.
- Jonsered home record: 6W 3D 1L in 10
- Torslanda away record: 2W 5D 3L in 10
- Jonsered last 5 home matches: 3W 2D 0L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonJonsereds IF or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Torslanda's tendency to trail at half-time gives Jonsered a slight edge, though Jonsered's own first-half lead rate is modest.
- Jonsered leading at half time in 20% of matches
- Torslanda trailing at half time in 60% of matches
- Torslanda first half conceded 1.3 goals on average
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostJonsereds IFEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with a half-time lead is plausible but not strongly supported by Jonsered's first-half performance.
- Jonsered home win rate 60%
- Torslanda away loss rate 30%
- Jonsered leading at half time in 20% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostJonsereds IF/Jonsereds IFEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Torslanda's poor first-half record makes it unlikely they lead at the break, favoring Jonsered or a draw.
- Torslanda trailing at half time in 60% of matches
- Jonsered trailing at half time in only 40% of matches
- Torslanda first half conceded 1.3 goals on average
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonJonsereds IF or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals8 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, and Jonsered's recent home games have frequently exceeded 2.5 goals.
- Jonsered home matches average 4.0 total goals (23 scored + 17 conceded in 10)
- Torslanda away matches average 3.3 total goals (17 scored + 16 conceded in 10)
- Jonsered last 5 home matches: 4,3,3,2,6 goals total
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly score and concede in their respective home/away splits, suggesting a strong chance both find the net.
- Jonsered home: scored in 9 of 10, conceded in 8 of 10
- Torslanda away: scored in 8 of 10, conceded in 8 of 10
- Last 5 H2H: only one meeting, 1-0 Jonsered
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Torslanda's poor first-half defensive record (1.3 conceded) makes a first-half goal likely.
- Jonsered first half goals average 0.5, conceded 0.7
- Torslanda first half goals average 0.6, conceded 1.3
- Torslanda trailing at half time in 60% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging over 1.5 goals per game and defensive vulnerabilities, the second half is likely to produce multiple goals.
- Jonsered average 1.5 goals per match, Torslanda 1.6
- Both teams concede over 1.5 goals per match on average
- Recent matches show second-half scoring patterns
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jonsered rarely keep clean sheets at home and Torslanda consistently score away, making a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Jonsered conceded in 8 of 10 home matches
- Torslanda scored in 8 of 10 away matches
- Torslanda average 1.7 goals away
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTorslanda IK to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Torslanda's away defense is leaky and Jonsered are prolific at home, so an away clean sheet is unlikely.
- Torslanda conceded in 8 of 10 away matches
- Jonsered scored in 9 of 10 home matches
- Jonsered average 2.3 goals at home
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonJonsereds IF to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jonsered's strong home scoring record and Torslanda's away defensive weakness support over 1.5 home goals.
- Jonsered average 2.3 goals per home match
- Jonsered scored 2+ goals in 7 of 10 home matches
- Torslanda concede 1.6 goals per away match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonJonsereds IF over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Torslanda's consistent away scoring and Jonsered's home defensive lapses make an away goal likely.
- Torslanda scored in 8 of 10 away matches
- Jonsered conceded in 8 of 10 home matches
- Torslanda average 1.7 goals away
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonTorslanda IK over 0.5Estimated chance72%