Segunda DivisiónFull time

Predictions graded

Huracan Montevideo1Plaza Colonia2

HT 1–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges3–443%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 04:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Back the draw at 3.10 (model 38% vs implied 32%) and consider the first-half draw at 1.95 (55% vs 51%).

Avoid the double chance, first-half Under 1.5, and Huracán clean sheet No—all are overpriced relative to our model.

Context

Plaza Colonia enter the 18th regular-phase matchday on 39 points, seven ahead of Huracán FC's 32 in the current annual table.
The result directly affects the annual-table gap, shaping each side's incentives during the second half of the regular phase. A Plaza Colonia win would extend their lead, while a Huracán victory would cut the distance to four points. The 26-match home-and-away format leaves enough fixtures for the gap to change further, so this match is one step in that race rather than a decisive moment.
- AUF lists Plaza Colonia on 39 points and Huracán FC on 32 in its current Segunda Profesional table.
- AUF confirmed Huracán FC versus Plaza Colonia for the 18th regular-phase matchday on 12 September.
- The 2026 regular phase is a 26-match, home-and-away competition.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 04:28 · Europe/BucharestAUF Segunda Profesional fixture and standingsauf.org.uy · 7 Sep 2026AUF 2026 Segunda División fixture and formatwww.auf.org.uy · 3 Mar 2026
Plaza Colonia is second in the Segunda División first phase with 12 points from six matches.
They have won three and drawn three, conceding only two goals. This defensive solidity could frustrate Huracan Montevideo, who have scored nine goals but also conceded six. Plaza Colonia's away record is also solid with one win and two draws in three games.
- Plaza Colonia's first phase record: 3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses, 9 goals for, 2 against.
- Away record: 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses, 3 goals for, 1 against.
Huracan Montevideo is fourth in the first phase with 10 points.
Their home record shows one win and two draws from three games, scoring four and conceding three. They have also drawn their last two home matches, suggesting they are competitive but not dominant. Plaza Colonia's strong away form will test this unbeaten home run.
- Huracan Montevideo home record: 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses, 4 goals for, 3 against.
- Recent home results: 2-1 win vs Cerrito, 3-2 win vs Paysandu, 1-3 loss vs Uruguay Montevideo (but that was before the first phase).
Plaza Colonia hosted Huracan Montevideo on 5 June 2026.
That match ended 0-0 in the Segunda División. Both teams had chances but could not score. This suggests a tight contest is possible again, especially with both teams solid defensively in the current phase.
- 2026-06-05: Plaza Colonia 0-0 Sportivo Huracan (Segunda División).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams show strong draw tendencies in recent form and the latest head-to-head was a stalemate, making a draw the most likely single outcome.
- Huracan Montevideo have drawn 4 of their last 6 league matches (DWWDD form).
- Plaza Colonia have drawn 3 of their last 6 league matches (WDDWW form).
- The most recent H2H meeting ended 0-0 (June 2026).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Plaza Colonia's unbeaten run and superior defensive record make them less likely to lose, supporting a double chance covering draw or away win.
- Plaza Colonia are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches (3W 3D).
- Huracan Montevideo have won only 2 of their last 6 league matches.
- Plaza Colonia have a better goal difference (+7 vs +3) in the current phase.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Plaza ColoniaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently go into the break level, and the recent head-to-head supports a drawn first half.
- Huracan Montevideo were level at halftime in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Plaza Colonia were level at halftime in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- The last H2H meeting was 0-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime and fulltime is plausible given both teams' draw tendencies and the recent goalless head-to-head.
- Huracan Montevideo have drawn 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Plaza Colonia have drawn 3 of their last 6 matches.
- The last H2H meeting was 0-0 at both halftime and fulltime.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and the recent head-to-head was goalless, suggesting a low-scoring match.
- Huracan Montevideo average 0.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match in recent form.
- Plaza Colonia average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match in recent form.
- The last H2H meeting produced 0 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Plaza Colonia's defensive solidity and Huracan's scoring inconsistency make it likely at least one team fails to score.
- Plaza Colonia have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 6 league matches.
- Huracan Montevideo failed to score in 3 of their last 6 league matches.
- The last H2H meeting ended 0-0.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, with low first-half scoring averages, supporting under 1.5 goals in the first half.
- Huracan Montevideo average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Plaza Colonia average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.1 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Teams tend to open up after halftime, and the combined second-half scoring rate is slightly higher, though confidence is low due to limited data.
- Huracan Montevideo score 0.5 goals per second half on average (0.9 total - 0.4 first half).
- Plaza Colonia score 0.7 goals per second half on average (1.3 total - 0.6 first half).
- Combined second-half scoring average is 1.2 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Huracan's defensive record is poor, and Plaza Colonia's consistent scoring makes a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Huracan Montevideo have conceded in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
- Plaza Colonia have scored in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
- Huracan Montevideo average 1.3 goals conceded per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPlaza Colonia to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Plaza Colonia's defensive strength and Huracan's scoring struggles give a moderate chance of an away clean sheet.
- Plaza Colonia have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 6 league matches.
- Huracan Montevideo failed to score in 3 of their last 6 league matches.
- Plaza Colonia concede only 1.0 goals per match on average.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostHuracan Montevideo not to scoreEstimated chance35%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 78% leaves no cushion vs our 68% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

D0-0Plaza ColoniavSportivo HuracanJun 5, 2026SEG

D1-1Plaza ColoniavSportivo HuracanApr 29, 2015SEG

W0-3Sportivo HuracanvPlaza ColoniaNov 25, 2014SEG

L2-1Sportivo HuracanvPlaza ColoniaApr 12, 2014SEG

D0-0Plaza ColoniavSportivo HuracanNov 9, 2013SEG

Huracan Montevideo: 3 clean sheetsPlaza Colonia: 2 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Segunda División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Huracan Montevideo	6	2	4	0	9-6	10	DWWDD
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9-2	12	WDDWW

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form