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Predictions graded

Hartford Athletic3Tampa Bay Rowdies1

HT 1–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 05:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Tampa Bay are the stronger side and unlikely to lose, but the market has priced that in, leaving no value on the double chance.

The only marginal edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.88, though Hartford's short turnaround adds risk. Avoid the heavily juiced clean sheet and first-half goal markets.

Context

Tampa Bay Rowdies lead the USL Championship with 48 points from 23 matches, while Hartford Athletic are sixth with 31 points from 22 matches.
The 17-point gap reflects a large difference in performance this season. Tampa Bay have won 14 matches and lost only 3, while Hartford have won 7 and drawn 10. This match is important for Hartford to stay in the playoff places, but Tampa Bay's strong record suggests they are the better side.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st with 48 points; Hartford Athletic are 6th with 31 points.
- Tampa Bay have 14 wins, 6 draws, 3 losses; Hartford have 7 wins, 10 draws, 5 losses.
- Hartford are 17 points behind Tampa Bay in the standings.
Hartford Athletic have taken 11 points from their last five league matches.
Hartford beat Colorado Springs 2-1 on September 8, drew 1-1 with Detroit City on September 5, and beat Charleston Battery 2-1 on September 2. This run has lifted them into the playoff places, but they have drawn many matches overall, which has limited their points total.
- Hartford's last five results: W, D, W, W, D.
- They beat Colorado Springs 2-1 on September 8.
- They drew 1-1 with Detroit City on September 5.
- They beat Charleston Battery 2-1 on September 2.
Hartford Athletic host this league match four days after their USL Cup semifinal win over Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC at the same venue.
The short turnaround from a competitive cup tie may reduce freshness and force rotation, though the club has not specified which players will be rested. Tampa Bay's own schedule is not part of this claim, so the direct freshness contrast remains uncertain.
- Hartford defeated Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC 2-1 in the September 8 USL Cup semifinal.
- The victory sent Hartford to a second consecutive USL Cup final.
- Hartford's next match is the September 12 home league fixture against Tampa Bay.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 05:11 · Europe/BucharestHartford Athletic: Cup semifinal recapwww.hartfordathletic.com · 8 Sep 2026
Tampa Bay Rowdies have the best away record in the league.
They have won 7, drawn 4, and lost only 1 away match, scoring 16 goals and conceding 6. This defensive strength on the road could make it hard for Hartford to score, even at home.
- Tampa Bay away record: 7 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss in 12 matches.
- They have scored 16 goals and conceded 6 away from home.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 77%

0.0ppshort

Tampa Bay's low loss rate and Hartford's high draw tendency support the away side or draw, but the odds already reflect this probability.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records and moderate defensive vulnerabilities, making both teams scoring likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a tendency to score in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Hartford Athletic to score

1.22fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Hartford's consistent scoring record makes a Tampa Bay clean sheet unlikely.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tampa Bay Rowdies to score

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Tampa Bay's strong attack and Hartford's defensive vulnerabilities make a Hartford clean sheet unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's superior league position and strong away form give them the edge, though Hartford's home resilience and recent H2H win keep the probability moderate.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st with 48 points, while Hartford Athletic are 6th with 31 points.
- Tampa Bay have won 14 of 23 league matches; Hartford have won 7 of 22.
- Tampa Bay's away record is 7W-4D-1L with 16 goals scored and 6 conceded in 12 away matches.
- Hartford's home record is 3W-5D-1L with 11 goals scored and 12 conceded in 9 home matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTampa Bay RowdiesEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Tampa Bay's low loss rate with Hartford's high draw tendency makes the away side or draw highly likely.
- Tampa Bay have lost only 3 of 23 league matches this season.
- Hartford have drawn 10 of 22 league matches, the most draws in the league.
- Tampa Bay's away record includes only 1 loss in 12 matches.
- Hartford's home record includes 5 draws in 9 matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Tampa Bay RowdiesEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite Tampa Bay's stronger first-half record, the H2H pattern of first-half draws suggests a draw is a plausible outcome.
- Hartford have led at half-time in 27% of recent matches and trailed in 33%.
- Tampa Bay have led at half-time in 53% of recent matches and trailed in 27%.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, half-time results were: D, D, D, D, D (all draws).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Tampa Bay win is a plausible scenario given Tampa Bay's second-half strength and Hartford's draw tendency.
- Tampa Bay have led at half-time in 53% of recent matches.
- Tampa Bay have won 14 of 23 league matches.
- Hartford have drawn 10 of 22 league matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Tampa Bay RowdiesEstimated chance25%

Goals6 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring averages and Tampa Bay's attacking output suggest a decent chance of at least three goals, though Hartford's defensive solidity at home tempers the probability.
- Hartford's recent matches average 1.3 goals for and 1.1 goals against, totaling 2.4 goals per game.
- Tampa Bay's recent matches average 1.8 goals for and 1.0 goals against, totaling 2.8 goals per game.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total goals were 1, 5, 1, 4, 1 (average 2.4).
- Tampa Bay have scored 40 goals in 23 league matches (1.74 per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and moderate defensive vulnerabilities, making both teams scoring likely.
- Hartford have scored in 15 of their last 15 matches (100%).
- Tampa Bay have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches (87%).
- Hartford have conceded in 11 of their last 15 matches (73%).
- Tampa Bay have conceded in 9 of their last 15 matches (60%).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to score in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Hartford average 0.7 first-half goals per match.
- Tampa Bay average 0.8 first-half goals per match.
- Hartford have scored in the first half in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- Tampa Bay have scored in the first half in 9 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring average is near the 1.5 line, but the estimate is uncertain due to limited half-specific data.
- Hartford's recent matches average 1.3 total goals, with 0.7 in the first half, implying 0.6 in the second half.
- Tampa Bay's recent matches average 1.8 total goals, with 0.8 in the first half, implying 1.0 in the second half.
- Combined second-half average is approximately 1.6 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hartford's consistent scoring record makes a Tampa Bay clean sheet unlikely.
- Hartford have scored in all of their last 15 matches.
- Tampa Bay have kept clean sheets in 6 of their last 15 matches (40%).
- Hartford average 1.3 goals per match in recent form.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHartford Athletic to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's strong attack and Hartford's defensive vulnerabilities make a Hartford clean sheet unlikely.
- Tampa Bay have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Hartford have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 15 matches (27%).
- Tampa Bay average 1.8 goals per match in recent form.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTampa Bay Rowdies to scoreEstimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 50% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Hartford Athletic has struggled to fulfil Over 2.5 goals projections

Hartford Athletic has fulfilled 2 of 7 Over 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 56.4%, but only 29% of matches went over 2.5 goals. Notably, both fulfilled predictions came at home, while all five away matches stayed under 2.5 goals.

Recent evidence for Hartford Athletic7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL Championship