Cadiz0Las Palmas1

HT 0–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 14:15 Predictions graded

Predictions2–918%

Edges1–517%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 7–20On targetOn target 2–5CornersCorners 7–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 23:44 · Europe/Bucharest

The draw at 3.30 offers a small edge (+4 points), but the strongest value is Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 (55% vs 51.3% implied) and BTTS Yes at 1.80 (58% vs 55.6%).

Avoid the Double Chance and first-half markets, which are priced efficiently or overpriced. High heat is a key risk to the Over, so monitor conditions before kickoff.

Context

Cadiz are 18th in La Liga 2 with 3 points from 4 matches, level on points with the relegation line.
They have drawn three and lost one, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their home record is two draws from two games, with only 1 goal scored and 1 conceded. This suggests they are solid at home but lack a cutting edge. Against a mid-table Las Palmas side, Cadiz need a win to ease early pressure.
- Cadiz are 18th with 3 points from 4 matches (0W, 3D, 1L).
- They are level on points with the relegation line (rank 19).
- Home record: 0W, 2D, 0L, scoring 1 and conceding 1.
Las Palmas centre-back Álex Suárez has a confirmed right-hamstring injury after finishing the Leganés match with discomfort.
His absence reduces continuity in Las Palmas' central defensive organisation and narrows the available cover for that unit. The club has not set a return date, so the full impact on their defensive shape against Cádiz remains uncertain.
- Las Palmas said medical tests confirmed a fibrillar injury to Álex Suárez's right hamstring.
- The club said he had finished the Leganés match with discomfort and that his absence period would depend on his evolution.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 23:43 · Europe/BucharestUD Las Palmas — medical reportwww.udlaspalmas.es · 9 Sep 2026AS — Álex Suárez injury reportas.com · 9 Sep 2026
Las Palmas are 10th with 7 points from 4 matches.
Their away record is 1 win and 1 loss, with 4 goals scored and 5 conceded. The win came against bottom side AD Ceuta FC, while the loss was a heavy 5-2 defeat at Girona. This mixed away form suggests they can be vulnerable defensively on the road, but they have shown they can beat weaker teams.
- Las Palmas away record: 1W, 0D, 1L, 4 goals scored, 5 conceded.
- They beat AD Ceuta FC 2-0 away on 2026-08-22.
- They lost 5-2 at Girona on 2026-08-29.
Cádiz right-back G. Gocholeishvili is a fitness doubt after coming off injured against Almería and missing Wednesday's training images.
A late change at right-back would affect Cádiz's defensive continuity and support on that flank. With no official diagnosis published, his availability for Las Palmas is still unresolved.
- G. Gocholeishvili left Cádiz's match at Almería after sustaining an ankle problem.
- Portal Cadista reported that he was absent from the images of Cádiz's 9 September closed training session and that no official medical update had been issued.
- G. Gocholeishvili started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 23:43 · Europe/BucharestPortal Cadista — training updatewww.portalcadista.com · 9 Sep 2026Diario de Cádiz — Gocholeishvili injury updatewww.diariodecadiz.es · 7 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cadiz's home draws and Las Palmas' inconsistent away form, combined with a balanced H2H at this venue, make a stalemate the most likely single outcome.
- Cadiz home record this season: 0W-2D-0L, 1 goal scored, 1 conceded
- Las Palmas away record this season: 1W-0D-1L, 4 goals scored, 5 conceded
- H2H last 5: Cadiz 1W, Las Palmas 3W, 1D; but Cadiz unbeaten in last 2 home league meetings (1W, 1D)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cadiz's home resilience and Las Palmas' away vulnerability support the hosts avoiding defeat.
- Cadiz unbeaten at home this season (2 draws)
- Las Palmas lost 1 of 2 away games
- Cadiz have not lost at home to Las Palmas in last 2 league meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCadiz or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team is a strong first-half performer, and the stats suggest a level score at the break is most likely.
- Cadiz led at half-time in only 20% of recent matches, trailed in 33%
- Las Palmas led at half-time in 40% of recent matches, trailed in 27%
- Both teams have a high draw rate at half-time in recent games
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A low-scoring draw is plausible given Cadiz's home draws and Las Palmas' occasional stalemates.
- Cadiz have drawn 3 of 4 league games, including both home games
- Las Palmas have drawn 1 of 4 league games
- H2H last meeting at Cadiz ended 0-0
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games this season, and the recent H2H produced four goals.
- Cadiz league matches average 2.75 total goals (5 scored, 6 conceded in 4)
- Las Palmas league matches average 3.0 total goals (6 scored, 6 conceded in 4)
- Last H2H meeting ended 3-1 to Las Palmas
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides regularly find the net and concede, making BTTS a strong statistical play.
- Cadiz scored in 3 of 4 league games, conceded in 3 of 4
- Las Palmas scored in 3 of 4 league games, conceded in 3 of 4
- Both teams scored in 3 of Cadiz's 4 league matches and 3 of Las Palmas' 4
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a decent chance of scoring before the break, and the combined first-half goal rate supports at least one goal.
- Cadiz first-half goals: 0.7 per game, first-half conceded: 0.9
- Las Palmas first-half goals: 0.6 per game, first-half conceded: 0.5
- Combined first-half goal rate: 1.35 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to produce more goals as fatigue sets in, especially with high heat potentially affecting late-game defending.
- Cadiz average 0.8 second-half goals (total 1.5 - 0.7 first half)
- Las Palmas average 0.7 second-half goals (total 1.3 - 0.6 first half)
- Combined second-half goal rate: 1.5 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance48%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the total could exceed 8.5 if the game opens up.
- Cadiz average 3.5 corners for, 5.0 corners against in recent league matches
- Las Palmas average 3.5 corners for, 4.5 corners against in recent league matches
- Combined average corners per game: 8.0
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is close to the line, and both teams have shown they can test the goalkeeper.
- Cadiz average 2.9 shots on target per game, concede 5.0
- Las Palmas average 3.6 shots on target per game, concede 4.0
- Combined average shots on target: 7.75 per game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cadiz's high card count and the competitive nature of the fixture could push total cards over the line.
- Cadiz average 3.6 yellow cards per game, Las Palmas average 1.1
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.7 per game
- Cadiz have received 4+ cards in 3 of their last 5 league matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Cadiz has fulfilled Over 4.5 cards in 2 of 4 recent matches

Cadiz has fulfilled Over 4.5 cards in 2 of 4 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 63.8%, but only 50% of predictions matched. The current prediction of 55% is below the historical range of 60-70%.

Recent evidence for Cadiz4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 May·La Liga 2