Süper LigFull time

Predictions graded

Alanyaspor2Goztepe2

HT 0–1Sat 12 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 20–14On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 9–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 07:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Alanyaspor or Draw is the standout value at 1.43, with a 72% model probability against a 70% implied chance.

Over 2.5 goals also offers a solid edge at 2.10, but avoid the match winner and first-half goals markets where prices are efficient or overpriced.

Context

Göztepe are in the Süper Lig relegation zone after three matches.
They have lost twice and drawn once, leaving them with one point. A defeat here would keep them in the bottom three and increase the pressure. Their away form is also poor, with one draw and one loss from two away games.
- Göztepe are 17th with 1 point from 3 matches (0W, 1D, 2L).
- They lost 3-2 at Galatasaray on 2026-08-29 and 1-0 at home to Gençlerbirliği on 2026-08-23.
- Their away record is 0W, 1D, 1L with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded.
Alanyaspor have played one home match in the league this season.
They won that game 1-0 against Beşiktaş on 2026-08-23, keeping a clean sheet. That result suggests they are solid at home, but it is only one match. Their overall home record is 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses.
- Alanyaspor beat Beşiktaş 1-0 at home on 2026-08-23.
- They have a 100% home record this season (1 win from 1 match).
Göztepe defender N. Sonko-Sundberg has missed recent league squads through injury.
His availability for the trip to Alanya remains unconfirmed, leaving a possible gap in central defence. If he is still out, Göztepe will have one fewer option when selecting their back line.
- Göztepe confirmed the signing of defender Noah Sonko Sundberg on a 2+1-year contract in July.
- İz Gazete reported that Sonko-Sundberg missed Göztepe's 29 August league match at Galatasaray through injury.
- Yeni Asır reported on 3 September that Sonko-Sundberg's injury would continue and rule him out against Gaziantep FK.
To watchSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 07:13 · Europe/BucharestGöztepe Spor Kulübügoztepe.org.tr · 9 Jul 2026İz Gazetewww.izgazete.net · 29 Aug 2026Yeni Asırwww.yeniasir.com.tr · 3 Sep 2026
Alanyaspor and Göztepe have met four times since August 2024.
The most recent match on 2026-03-14 ended 2-2. Before that, Alanyaspor won 1-0 at home on 2025-10-19, and Göztepe won 1-0 at home on 2025-02-02. The other match was a 1-1 draw on 2024-08-23. These results suggest the teams are evenly matched, but the sample is small and includes different seasons.
- 2026-03-14: Göztepe 2-2 Alanyaspor (Süper Lig)
- 2025-10-19: Alanyaspor 1-0 Göztepe (Süper Lig)
- 2025-02-02: Göztepe 0-1 Alanyaspor (Süper Lig)
- 2024-08-23: Alanyaspor 1-1 Göztepe (Süper Lig)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Alanyaspor's perfect home start and Göztepe's winless away form give the hosts a clear edge, reinforced by recent H2H home success.
- Alanyaspor home record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses (1.0 goals for, 0.0 against per home game).
- Göztepe away record this season: 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (2.5 goals for, 3.0 against per away game).
- Last 5 H2H: Alanyaspor 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; at home Alanyaspor won 1-0 in Oct 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlanyasporEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Alanyaspor's strong home form with Göztepe's poor away record makes the double chance highly likely.
- Alanyaspor have not lost at home this season (1 win, 0 draws).
- Göztepe have not won away this season (0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss).
- Last 5 H2H: Alanyaspor unbeaten in 4 of 5 (2 wins, 2 draws).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAlanyaspor or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Göztepe often lead at half-time, Alanyaspor's tendency to draw at the break and the recent H2H draw suggest a balanced first half.
- Alanyaspor half-time results: 33% leading, 13% trailing, 54% drawing (last 15).
- Göztepe half-time results: 60% leading, 13% trailing, 27% drawing (last 15).
- H2H last meeting (Mar 2026): half-time score 1-1.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an Alanyaspor win is a plausible scenario given Alanyaspor's second-half improvement at home.
- Alanyaspor have drawn at half-time in 54% of matches and won 33% overall (last 15).
- Göztepe have drawn at half-time in 27% and lost 40% overall (last 15).
- Alanyaspor home win rate this season: 100% (1/1).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/AlanyasporEstimated chance18%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games, especially Göztepe away, making over 2.5 goals a reasonable expectation.
- Alanyaspor average 1.3 goals for and 1.3 goals against per match (last 15).
- Göztepe average 1.7 goals for and 1.3 goals against per match (last 15).
- Göztepe away matches this season: 5 goals for, 6 against in 2 games (5.5 total goals per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show consistent scoring ability, and Göztepe's away matches have seen goals at both ends.
- Alanyaspor have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Göztepe have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Göztepe away games this season: both teams scored in both matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, with Göztepe especially strong before the break.
- Alanyaspor average 0.7 first-half goals per match (last 15).
- Göztepe average 1.0 first-half goals per match (last 15).
- Göztepe led at half-time in 60% of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring average is close to the line, but the high-scoring tendencies of both teams support a slight lean to over.
- Alanyaspor average 0.6 second-half goals per match (1.3 total - 0.7 first half).
- Göztepe average 0.7 second-half goals per match (1.7 total - 1.0 first half).
- Combined second-half average: 1.3 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages slightly exceed the line, but variance is high, so confidence is low.
- Alanyaspor average 4.9 corners per match (last 15).
- Göztepe average 4.3 corners per match (last 15).
- Combined average: 9.2 corners per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is just above the line, but both teams' attacking intent supports a slight lean to over.
- Alanyaspor average 3.8 shots on target per match (last 15).
- Göztepe average 5.2 shots on target per match (last 15).
- Combined average: 9.0 shots on target per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams accumulate cards at a rate above the line, especially Göztepe, making over 4.5 cards likely.
- Alanyaspor average 2.2 yellow cards per match (last 15).
- Göztepe average 3.1 yellow cards per match (last 15).
- Combined average: 5.3 yellow cards per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 42% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 2D · 0W

D2-2GöztepevAlanyasporMar 14, 2026SÜP

W1-0AlanyasporvGöztepeOct 19, 2025SÜP

W0-1GöztepevAlanyasporFeb 2, 2025SÜP

D1-1AlanyasporvGöztepeAug 23, 2024SÜP

W0-2GöztepevAlanyasporMar 19, 2022SÜP

Alanyaspor unbeaten in 5 meetingsAlanyaspor: 3 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Süper Lig 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Alanyaspor	3	1	1	1	3-3	4	LWD
17	Goztepe Relegation - 1. Lig	3	0	1	2	5-7	1	LLD

3pt gap between teamsGoztepe in relegation zone

Recent Form

Alanyaspor

L1-2EyüpsporAug 30SÜP

W1-0BeşiktaşAug 23SÜP

D1-1Gaziantep FKAug 15SÜP

D2-2TikvešJul 16FRI

L1-2Fatih KaragümrükMay 16SÜP

W3-1KayserisporMay 9SÜP

D0-0AntalyasporMay 3SÜP

L2-3SamsunsporApr 27SÜP

L0-3BeşiktaşApr 23TÜR

L0-1KasımpaşaApr 19SÜP

D1-1TrabzonsporApr 11SÜP

D1-1Gaziantep FKApr 4SÜP

W5-0KocaelisporMar 18SÜP

D2-2GöztepeMar 14SÜP

D0-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.Mar 9SÜP

Goztepe

L2-3GalatasarayAug 29SÜP

L0-1Gençlerbirliği S.K.Aug 23SÜP

D3-3SamsunsporAug 17SÜP

W2-1TrabzonsporAug 8FRI

D1-1RudesJul 26FRI

W2-1Zorya LuhanskJul 23FRI

W2-1Al-DhafraJul 19FRI

W2-0LNZ CherkasyJul 16FRI

W2-0HNK GoricaJul 13FRI

L0-3SamsunsporMay 16SÜP

W2-1Gaziantep FKMay 9SÜP

D1-1TrabzonsporMay 2SÜP

W2-0AntalyasporApr 25SÜP

D1-1KocaelisporApr 18SÜP

D3-3KasımpaşaApr 12SÜP

Squad & Injuries

Alanyaspor

30 available

Attackers8

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Goztepe

25 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alanyaspor or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Alanyaspor

Goztepe

Squad & Injuries

Alanyaspor

Goztepe