Hacken1Mjallby1

HT 0–1Fri 11 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 17–11On targetOn target 7–4CornersCorners 6–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 16:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Hacken are likely to win or avoid defeat, but the odds offer no value.

The only positive edge is over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.05, where our 55% estimate beats the implied 48.8%. Avoid backing Hacken at 1.62 or over 2.5 goals at 1.48.

Context

Andreas Brännström was appointed Mjällby head coach on 8 September 2026, signed through 31 December 2026, and takes charge for the first time at Häcken.
The coaching change leaves Mjällby with only three days to implement new instructions before facing Häcken. Brännström's immediate appointment means the away side's selection and defensive organisation are uncertain, and the linked analysis sees Hacken as the likely winner given their superior league position and home advantage.
- Fotbollskanalen reported on 8 September that Brännström returned to Mjällby, took up the role immediately and signed through the end of 2026.
- Sverigesfotboll.se independently reported that Mjällby appointed Brännström as head coach with immediate effect.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 16:11 · Europe/BucharestFotbollskanalen: Klart: Brännström tar över Mjällbywww.fotbollskanalen.se · 8 Sep 2026Sverigesfotboll.se: Brännström återvänder som huvudtränare i Mjällbysverigesfotboll.se · 8 Sep 2026
Mjallby are 12th in the 16-team Allsvenskan with 20 points from 18 matches.
They are only one point above Degerfors in 14th, the relegation playoff spot. A loss here could drop them into that danger zone, so they may push harder for a result against Hacken.
- Mjallby are 12th with 20 points from 18 matches.
- They are one point above 14th-placed Degerfors, who occupy the relegation playoff spot.
Hacken are 4th in the Allsvenskan with 32 points from 20 matches.
In the last three home matches against Mjallby, Hacken won 1-0 in May 2026 and 0-0 in March 2026, with a 0-1 loss in April 2025. This recent home success suggests they can handle Mjallby at their own ground.
- Hacken beat Mjallby 1-0 at home on 2026-05-17 in the Allsvenskan.
- Hacken drew 2-2 with Mjallby at home on 2026-03-27 in a friendly.
- Hacken lost 0-1 to Mjallby at home on 2025-04-12 in the Allsvenskan.
Mjallby are 12th in the Allsvenskan with 20 points from 18 matches.
They lost to Djurgardens 0-2 at home on 2026-09-03, lost 0-4 away to Djurgardens on 2026-08-31, and lost 0-3 away to Red Bull Salzburg on 2026-08-27. This run of defeats indicates defensive problems that Hacken could exploit.
- Mjallby lost 0-2 at home to Djurgardens on 2026-09-03.
- Mjallby lost 0-4 away to Djurgardens on 2026-08-31.
- Mjallby lost 0-3 away to Red Bull Salzburg on 2026-08-27.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Hacken

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Hacken's superior league position and home advantage are offset by Mjallby's coaching change, making the 1.62 odds slightly short of our 55% estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Hacken or Draw

1.18fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 84.8%

0.0ppshort

Hacken's strong home form and Mjallby's poor away record make a home defeat unlikely, but the 1.18 odds imply a higher probability than our 78% estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns in their respective home/away splits.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to concede early, making a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hacken's superior league position and home advantage outweigh Mjallby's recent coaching uncertainty.
- Hacken rank 4th with 32 points vs Mjallby 12th with 20 points
- Hacken home record: 4W 4D 2L, Mjallby away record: 2W 4D 3L
- Hacken won last league H2H 1-0 away on 2026-05-17
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHackenEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hacken's strong home form and Mjallby's poor away record make a home defeat unlikely.
- Hacken home record: 4W 4D 2L (80% unbeaten)
- Mjallby away record: 2W 4D 3L (67% not winning)
- Hacken have lost only 2 of 10 home matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHacken or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely lead at the break, making a level first half the most likely scenario.
- Hacken lead at half-time in only 27% of matches
- Mjallby lead at half-time in only 7% of matches
- Both teams trail at half-time more often than they lead
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by Hacken's superior quality could produce a home win after a level break.
- Hacken have drawn at half-time in 5 of 10 home matches
- Hacken have won 4 of 10 home matches
- Mjallby have drawn at half-time in 5 of 9 away matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/HackenEstimated chance18%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' defensive vulnerabilities and Hacken's home scoring tendency support a higher-scoring game.
- Hacken average 1.4 goals for and 1.5 against per match
- Mjallby average 1.1 goals for and 2.1 against per match
- Hacken home matches average 3.4 total goals (17 for, 17 against in 10)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns in their respective home/away splits.
- Hacken have scored in 8 of 10 home matches
- Mjallby have scored in 7 of 9 away matches
- Hacken have conceded in 8 of 10 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, making a first-half goal likely.
- Hacken average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.9 against
- Mjallby average 0.4 first-half goals for and 0.8 against
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.3 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have produced more goals for both teams, supporting a higher second-half total.
- Hacken average 0.9 second-half goals for (1.4 total - 0.5 first half)
- Mjallby average 0.7 second-half goals for (1.1 total - 0.4 first half)
- Combined second-half goal average is 1.6 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hacken's high corner count and Mjallby's moderate contribution make a total above 9.5 plausible.
- Hacken average 6.0 corners per match
- Mjallby average 3.4 corners per match
- Combined average is 9.4 corners per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of shots on target, making a total above 8.5 a coin flip.
- Hacken average 4.7 shots on target per match
- Mjallby average 3.4 shots on target per match
- Combined average is 8.1 shots on target per match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%