Moreirense0Benfica4

HT 0–1Wed 9 Sept 2026, 19:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 26%–74%ShotsShots 8–21On targetOn target 1–9CornersCorners 3–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 05:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Benfica are clear favourites, but their short odds offer no value.

The best betting edge is Both Teams to Score – Yes at 2.15 (+11 point edge), with Over 1.5 first-half goals at 1.91 as a secondary option. Avoid all short-priced Benfica markets and the Over 3.5 goals line.

Context

Benfica are 5th in the Primeira Liga with 7 points from 3 matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding 3.
In their only away league game, Benfica beat Casa Pia 7-0 on 2026-08-17, taking 20 shots and 8 on target. Moreirense have conceded 6 goals in 3 home and away matches, including 4 against Arouca on 2026-08-16. Benfica's away scoring power is a direct threat to Moreirense's defence, which has struggled against strong attacks.
- Benfica won 7-0 away at Casa Pia on 2026-08-17, with 20 shots and 8 on target.
- Moreirense lost 0-4 away at Arouca on 2026-08-16, conceding 4 goals.
- Benfica's away record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses, 7 goals for, 0 against.
Moreirense are 11th with 4 points, having scored 3 and conceded 6 in 3 matches.
Moreirense's defensive record is poor: they conceded 4 goals against Arouca on 2026-08-16 and 2 against SC Braga at home on 2026-08-09. Benfica have scored 11 goals in 3 league matches, so Moreirense's back line will be under pressure. However, Moreirense did keep a clean sheet in their last match, a 1-0 win at Casa Pia on 2026-08-30, which may give them some confidence.
- Moreirense conceded 4 goals against Arouca on 2026-08-16.
- Moreirense drew 2-2 at home with SC Braga on 2026-08-09.
- Moreirense kept a clean sheet in a 1-0 away win at Casa Pia on 2026-08-30.
The last five Primeira Liga meetings between these teams show Benfica with three wins, one draw, and one loss.
Benfica beat Moreirense 4-1 at home on 2026-04-25 and 4-0 away on 2025-12-14. Moreirense's only win in this span was a 3-2 home victory on 2025-02-08. Benfica's recent dominance in this fixture suggests they know how to break down Moreirense, but the home side did manage a win in their own stadium last year.
- Benfica won 4-1 at home on 2026-04-25.
- Benfica won 4-0 away on 2025-12-14.
- Moreirense won 3-2 at home on 2025-02-08.
Moreirense midfielder Guilherme Liberato was sent off at FC Porto on 4 September.
The sanction has not been published, so his availability is unresolved. If banned, Moreirense would need to adjust their central midfield, reducing their options in defensive work.
- Guilherme Liberato received a direct red card after VAR review in Moreirense's league match at FC Porto on 4 September.
- The dismissal followed a collision involving Porto midfielder Victor Froholdt.
To watchSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 05:45 · Europe/BucharestA BOLA: Liberato apologises to Froholdtwww.abola.pt · 5 Sep 2026RTP: FC Porto 2-1 Moreirensewww.rtp.pt · 5 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Benfica

1.14fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's superior attacking output and dominant H2H record make them clear favourites despite Moreirense's home advantage.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Benfica

1.03fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 97%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's strong form and H2H dominance make a Moreirense win unlikely, supporting the double chance.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Benfica

1.47fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 68%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's tendency to start strongly and Moreirense's first-half struggles favour an away lead at the break.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Benfica at half-time / Benfica at full-time

1.49fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 67%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's ability to control matches from the start makes a half-time/full-time double plausible.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's high-scoring attack and Moreirense's defensive vulnerabilities point to a high-scoring game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's superior attacking output and dominant H2H record make them clear favourites despite Moreirense's home advantage.
- Benfica average 3.0 goals per game in last 15 matches; Moreirense concede 1.6 per game.
- Benfica won 4 of last 5 H2H meetings, including 4-1 and 4-0 wins.
- Benfica away record this season: 1 win, 7 goals scored, 0 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBenficaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's strong form and H2H dominance make a Moreirense win unlikely, supporting the double chance.
- Benfica have not lost in last 5 H2H meetings (4 wins, 1 draw).
- Moreirense have only 1 win in last 5 home matches across all competitions.
- Benfica's last 15 matches: 11 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or BenficaEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's tendency to start strongly and Moreirense's first-half struggles favour an away lead at the break.
- Benfica led at half-time in 67% of recent matches.
- Moreirense trailed at half-time in 42% of recent matches.
- Benfica average 1.5 first-half goals vs Moreirense's 0.6.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBenficaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Benfica's ability to control matches from the start makes a half-time/full-time double plausible.
- Benfica led at half-time in 67% of recent matches and won 73% overall.
- Moreirense trailed at half-time in 42% and lost 47% of recent matches.
- Benfica won 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonBenfica/BenficaEstimated chance50%

Goals1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's high-scoring attack and Moreirense's defensive vulnerabilities point to a high-scoring game.
- Benfica matches average 4.1 total goals (3.0 for, 1.1 against).
- Moreirense matches average 2.7 total goals (1.1 for, 1.6 against).
- Last 3 H2H meetings produced 5, 4, and 5 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Moreirense's home scoring record and Benfica's occasional defensive lapses suggest both teams can find the net.
- Moreirense scored in 8 of last 10 home matches.
- Benfica conceded in 6 of last 10 away matches.
- Moreirense average 1.1 goals per game overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's strong first-half scoring record makes multiple first-half goals likely.
- Benfica average 1.5 first-half goals per game.
- Moreirense concede 0.8 first-half goals per game.
- Benfica led at half-time in 67% of recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's corner dominance and Moreirense's low corner count suggest a total near the line, with slight lean over.
- Benfica average 7.2 corners per game; Moreirense average 3.3.
- Benfica's opponents average 2.1 corners per game.
- Combined average corners in Benfica matches: 9.3.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's high shot volume should push total shots on target over the line despite Moreirense's low output.
- Benfica average 8.7 shots on target per game.
- Moreirense average 3.1 shots on target per game.
- Combined average shots on target in Benfica matches: 11.8.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moreirense's physical style and Benfica's attacking pressure could lead to multiple cards.
- Moreirense average 2.8 yellow cards per game; Benfica average 1.1.
- Moreirense's opponents average 2.5 yellow cards per game.
- Combined average cards in Moreirense matches: 5.3.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%