Süper LigFull time

Predictions graded

Rizespor0Alanyaspor1

HT 0–0Mon 7 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 21–9On targetOn target 5–2CornersCorners 8–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 01:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Back under 2.5 goals at 1.80 (58% model vs 55.6% implied) as the top value play.

The draw at 3.40 is a smaller edge, but avoid Rizespor or Draw at 1.22 and first-half under 1.5 at 1.38 — both are overpriced relative to our estimates.

Context

Rizespor sit 7th with 6 points from 3 matches.
They lost 0-2 at home to Samsunspor on 22 August 2026, but won away at Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor. This home weakness could matter against Alanyaspor.
- Rizespor lost 0-2 at home to Samsunspor on 2026-08-22.
- Rizespor won away at Gaziantep FK (2-1) and Konyaspor (1-0).
Rizespor attacker V. Mihăilă is listed as doubtful on the current match page, which explicitly notes it is not a confirmed team sheet.
His status remains a selection uncertainty until the club announces the squad. If he is unavailable, Rizespor must alter its attacking selection, but no confirmed replacement or tactical change is supplied.
- Starting11's current match page lists Mihăilă as doubtful for Rizespor.
- The same page says its availability information is not a confirmed team sheet.
To watchSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 01:42 · Europe/BucharestStarting11 Rizespor vs Alanyaspor previewstarting11.com · 28 Aug 2026
Alanyaspor are 12th with 4 points.
They drew 1-1 at Gaziantep FK and lost 1-2 at Eyüpspor. Their away record suggests they may find it hard to beat Rizespor.
- Alanyaspor drew 1-1 at Gaziantep FK on 2026-08-15.
- Alanyaspor lost 1-2 at Eyüpspor on 2026-08-30.
Alanyaspor midfielder Maestro is listed with a muscle injury dated 28 August and an expected return in mid-September 2026.
His involvement against Rizespor is unresolved. If he misses out, Alanyaspor loses a central-midfield selection option, but without a club update this adds uncertainty only.
- FotMob lists Maestro with a muscle injury dated 28 August.
- FotMob gives an expected return in mid-September 2026 and identifies the Rizespor fixture as his next scheduled match.
To watchSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 01:42 · Europe/BucharestFotMob Maestro profilewww.fotmob.com · 28 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Rizespor or Draw

1.22fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Rizespor's superior overall form and home advantage make them less likely to lose, but the odds are too short to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H shows a strong draw tendency, and both teams have unimpressive home/away splits this season, making a stalemate likely.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, 2 home wins (Rizespor 1-1 Alanyaspor on 2026-01-25, Alanyaspor 0-0 Rizespor on 2025-08-16).
- Rizespor home record this season: 0W-0D-1L (0 goals scored, 2 conceded).
- Alanyaspor away record this season: 0W-1D-1L (2 goals scored, 3 conceded).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rizespor's superior overall form and home advantage (despite one home loss) make them less likely to lose, supporting a double chance.
- Rizespor overall form: 2W-0D-1L, 6 points, 7th place.
- Alanyaspor away form: 0W-1D-1L, 2 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- Rizespor have won 2 of their last 3 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostRizespor or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently draw at half-time, and the overall draw tendency in H2H supports a possible draw/draw outcome, though probability remains low.
- Rizespor have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Alanyaspor have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Last H2H (2026-01-25) was 1-1 at full time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring, suggesting a tight match.
- Rizespor average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match.
- Alanyaspor average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches had under 2.5 goals (1-1, 0-0, 1-0).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and similar goal averages, making it likely both find the net.
- Rizespor have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Alanyaspor have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Both teams average over 1 goal per game this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half goal averages and a history of cautious first halves in H2H.
- Rizespor average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Alanyaspor average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 matches had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is slightly higher than first-half for both teams, but the margin is thin, so this is a low-confidence lean.
- Rizespor average 0.7 second-half goals (1.4 total - 0.7 first half).
- Alanyaspor average 0.6 second-half goals (1.3 total - 0.7 first half).
- Combined second-half average is 1.3 goals, close to the 1.5 line.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, and the combined average exceeds the line, though variance is high.
- Rizespor average 5.6 corners per match, Alanyaspor average 4.9.
- Combined average corners: 10.5 per match.
- Recent matches show Rizespor with high corner counts (10, 7, 8 in last 5).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average yellow cards is just above the line, but card counts are volatile, so this is a low-confidence lean.
- Rizespor average 2.6 yellow cards per match, Alanyaspor average 2.2.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.8 per match.
- Recent matches show multiple bookings for both teams.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is right at the line, making this a coin-flip proposition with no strong edge.
- Rizespor average 4.9 shots on target per match, Alanyaspor average 3.8.
- Combined average shots on target: 8.7 per match.
- Recent matches show variability in shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 82% leaves no cushion vs our 68% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D1-1RizesporvAlanyasporJan 25, 2026SÜP

D0-0AlanyasporvRizesporAug 16, 2025SÜP

W3-1RizesporvAlanyasporMar 2, 2025SÜP

L1-0AlanyasporvRizesporSep 28, 2024SÜP

L2-1AlanyasporvRizesporJan 20, 2024SÜP

Alanyaspor: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Süper Lig 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Rizespor	3	2	0	1	3-3	6	WLW
12	Alanyaspor	3	1	1	1	3-3	4	LWD

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Rizespor

W2-1Gaziantep FKAug 29SÜP

L0-2SamsunsporAug 22SÜP

W1-0KonyasporAug 15SÜP

W2-1Pyramids FCAug 8FRI

D0-0AbhaJul 31FRI

L1-2Hull CityJul 28FRI

W3-1NK OsijekJul 25FRI

D0-0Erzurumspor FKJul 17FRI

W3-0Dinamo BatumiJul 15FRI

D2-2BeşiktaşMay 15SÜP

L0-4EyüpsporMay 9SÜP

W3-2KonyasporMay 1SÜP

L0-2KayserisporApr 25SÜP

D2-2FenerbahçeApr 17SÜP

W2-1Gaziantep FKApr 13SÜP

Alanyaspor

L1-2EyüpsporAug 30SÜP

W1-0BeşiktaşAug 23SÜP

D1-1Gaziantep FKAug 15SÜP

D2-2TikvešJul 16FRI

L1-2Fatih KaragümrükMay 16SÜP

W3-1KayserisporMay 9SÜP

D0-0AntalyasporMay 3SÜP

L2-3SamsunsporApr 27SÜP

L0-3BeşiktaşApr 23TÜR

L0-1KasımpaşaApr 19SÜP

D1-1TrabzonsporApr 11SÜP

D1-1Gaziantep FKApr 4SÜP

W5-0KocaelisporMar 18SÜP

D2-2GöztepeMar 14SÜP

D0-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.Mar 9SÜP

Squad & Injuries

Rizespor

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Alanyaspor

25 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Rizespor or Draw

Under 1.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Rizespor or Draw

Under 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Rizespor

Alanyaspor

Squad & Injuries

Rizespor

Alanyaspor