Süper LigFull time

Predictions graded

Kasimpasa2Amedspor2

HT 1–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 14–14On targetOn target 7–4CornersCorners 2–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 06:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Kasimpasa are likely to avoid defeat at home against a travel-weary Amedspor, but the odds on 'Kasimpasa or Draw' (1.33) offer no value.

The only positive edge is Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 (55% model vs 51.3% implied), though Amedspor's away scoring blank makes it a medium-confidence play.

Context

Amedspor are 5th with 6 points, but their away record shows 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss from 1 match.
Amedspor lost 0-2 at Kocaelispor on 2026-08-24, their only away Süper Lig match this season. Kasimpasa drew 1-1 at home against Trabzonspor on 2026-08-15. This suggests Amedspor may struggle away from home, but the sample is very small.
- Amedspor away record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 0 goals for, 2 goals against.
- Amedspor lost 0-2 at Kocaelispor on 2026-08-24.
- Kasimpasa home record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 1 goal for, 1 goal against.
- Kasimpasa drew 1-1 at home against Trabzonspor on 2026-08-15.
Kasimpasa have averaged 39.1% possession in their league matches this season.
Kasimpasa's recent matches show low possession: 35% against Başakşehir, 25% against Çorum FK, and 40% against Trabzonspor. Amedspor average 53.4% possession, so they may see more of the ball, but Kasimpasa have still managed to avoid defeat in all three league games.
- Kasimpasa average possession: 39.1%.
- Amedspor average possession: 53.4%.
- Kasimpasa possession in recent matches: 35% vs Başakşehir, 25% vs Çorum FK, 40% vs Trabzonspor.
Amedspor have averaged 16.1 shots per game in the league this season.
Amedspor took 17 shots against Trabzonspor and 12 against Kocaelispor. Kasimpasa concede an average of 1 goal per game, but their opponents have taken 12, 16, and 13 shots in their three league matches. Amedspor's high shot volume may create chances, but they only scored 5 goals in 3 games.
- Amedspor average shots total: 16.1.
- Amedspor shots in recent matches: 17 vs Trabzonspor, 12 vs Kocaelispor.
- Kasimpasa opponents' shots in recent matches: 12 vs Başakşehir, 16 vs Çorum FK, 13 vs Trabzonspor.
Kasimpasa are 8th with 5 points from 3 matches.
Kasimpasa drew 1-1 with Başakşehir, won 1-0 at Çorum FK, and drew 1-1 with Trabzonspor. This unbeaten start suggests they are solid, but they have only scored 3 goals in 3 games, so they may rely on tight defense.
- Kasimpasa form: DWD (draw, win, draw).
- Kasimpasa results: 1-1 vs Başakşehir (2026-08-30), 1-0 at Çorum FK (2026-08-22), 1-1 vs Trabzonspor (2026-08-15).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Kasimpasa or Draw

1.33fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Kasimpasa's home resilience and Amedspor's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely, but the odds already reflect that probability.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.80fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Kasimpasa's consistent scoring and Amedspor's defensive vulnerabilities on the road suggest both teams can find the net.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams show a tendency to be involved in first-half goals, making a goal before halftime likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and Amedspor's poor away form give Kasimpasa a moderate edge, though their own home scoring is limited.
- Kasimpasa home record this season: 0W-1D-0L (1 goal scored, 1 conceded)
- Amedspor away record this season: 0W-0D-1L (0 goals scored, 2 conceded)
- Kasimpasa last 5 Süper Lig matches: 2W-2D-1L, including a 1-0 home win over Galatasaray
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKasimpasaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kasimpasa's resilience at home and Amedspor's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Kasimpasa unbeaten at home this season (1 draw)
- Amedspor lost their only away match this season
- Kasimpasa have not lost in their last 3 league matches (1W-2D)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonKasimpasa or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles, and a level score at the break is a common outcome.
- Kasimpasa led at halftime in 36% of matches, trailed in 21%
- Amedspor led at halftime in 33% of matches, trailed in 13%
- In Kasimpasa's last 5 league matches, halftime results: 2W, 1D, 2L
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A halftime draw followed by a Kasimpasa win is a plausible sequence given home advantage and Amedspor's away weakness, but the specific combination is uncommon.
- Kasimpasa have drawn at halftime in 2 of their last 5 league matches
- Kasimpasa have won 2 of their last 5 league matches overall
- Amedspor have not won away this season
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / KasimpasaEstimated chance18%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Amedspor's attacking output at home contrasts with their away blank, but Kasimpasa's moderate scoring and Amedspor's potential to concede could push the total over.
- Amedspor average 2.1 goals scored per match overall, but 0 goals in their only away match
- Kasimpasa average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match
- Amedspor's recent matches have seen 3+ goals in 4 of last 6 (including friendlies)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kasimpasa's consistent scoring and Amedspor's defensive vulnerabilities on the road suggest both teams can find the net.
- Kasimpasa scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches
- Amedspor conceded in 2 of their 3 league matches, including 2 away
- Both teams have scored in 2 of Kasimpasa's 3 league games this season
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show a tendency to be involved in first-half goals, making a goal before halftime likely.
- Kasimpasa average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded
- Amedspor average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- In 4 of Kasimpasa's last 5 league matches, at least one first-half goal was scored
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' moderate attacking rates, but confidence is low due to limited away data for Amedspor.
- Kasimpasa average 0.9 second-half goals scored (total 1.5 - 0.6 first half)
- Amedspor average 1.1 second-half goals scored (total 2.1 - 1.0 first half)
- Amedspor's away match saw 2 goals in the second half
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Amedspor's high corner count, especially at home, may not fully translate away, but combined totals suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 8.5 corners.
- Kasimpasa average 2.9 corners per match, opponent corners 5.0 (total ~7.9)
- Amedspor average 7.6 corners per match, opponent corners 3.9 (total ~11.5)
- Amedspor's away match saw 10 corners total (7 for Amedspor, 3 for opponent)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Amedspor's high shot volume at home drops significantly away, making the over 8.5 line uncertain.
- Kasimpasa average 3.0 shots on target per match, opponent 4.0 (total ~7.0)
- Amedspor average 5.6 shots on target per match, opponent 3.0 (total ~8.6)
- Amedspor's away match had 4 shots on target total (1 for Amedspor, 3 for opponent)
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kasimpasa's recent high-card match and both teams' moderate card averages suggest a decent chance of over 4.5 total cards.
- Kasimpasa average 2.5 yellow cards per match, opponent 2.0 (total ~4.5)
- Amedspor average 1.9 yellow cards per match, opponent 2.0 (total ~3.9)
- Kasimpasa's last match saw 10 yellow cards (Kasimpasa 10, opponent 4)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 46.5% leaves no cushion vs our 38% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

League Table

Süper Lig 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Kasimpasa	3	1	2	0	3-2	5	DWD
5	Amedspor	3	2	0	1	5-3	6	WLW

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Kasimpasa

D1-1BaşakşehirAug 30SÜP

W1-0Çorum FKAug 22SÜP

D1-1TrabzonsporAug 15SÜP

W3-0SamsunsporAug 8FRI

D1-1Hull CityAug 1FRI

W3-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.Jul 24FRI

D1-1Batman PetrolsporJul 18FRI

W1-0İstanbulsporJul 12FRI

W1-0GalatasarayMay 17SÜP

L2-3Gençlerbirliği S.K.May 9SÜP

D1-1KocaelisporMay 3SÜP

L0-4BaşakşehirApr 24SÜP

W1-0AlanyasporApr 19SÜP

D3-3GöztepeApr 12SÜP

W2-0KayserisporApr 4SÜP

Amedspor

W2-1TrabzonsporAug 31SÜP

L0-2KocaelisporAug 24SÜP

W3-0Erzurumspor FKAug 16SÜP

W2-0Dinamo BatumiJul 16FRI

D3-3Iğdır FKMay 21.

D1-1Bodrum FKApr 261.

L0-2BandırmasporApr 191.

D2-2ÜmraniyesporApr 131.

D1-1Esenler EroksporApr 91.

W6-1BolusporApr 51.

W3-0HataysporMar 221.

W2-0Manisa F.K.Mar 151.

W4-0İstanbulsporMar 111.

W1-0Serik SporMar 71.

D2-2KeçiörengücüFeb 281.

Squad & Injuries

Kasimpasa

29 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Amedspor

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Kasimpasa or Draw

Yes

Over 0.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 4.5

League Table

Recent Form

Kasimpasa

Amedspor

Squad & Injuries

Kasimpasa

Amedspor