KA Akureyri2Breidablik1

HT 1–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges1–325%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 00:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Breidablik are the likely winners, but the best value is in the double chance 'Draw or Breidablik' at 1.45 (model edge +3pts).

Avoid over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes, as the market odds are significantly higher than the model estimates.

Context

KA Akureyri are in the relegation playoff zone, currently 12th in the 12-team league.
They have only two home wins all season and have conceded 20 goals in 10 home matches. This poor home record makes it hard for them to get a result against Breidablik, even though Breidablik are also struggling.
- KA Akureyri are 12th with 17 points from 21 matches.
- Their home record is 2 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses.
- They have scored 14 and conceded 20 goals at home.
Breidablik are 4th in the table but have slipped recently.
Their recent results include a 4-3 home loss to Fram Reykjavik and a 3-1 home loss to Valur Reykjavik. This poor run could give KA Akureyri a chance, but Breidablik's away form has been more stable with five draws in ten away matches.
- Breidablik's last five league results: L, L, D, L, L.
- They lost 2-0 at home to Stjarnan on 31 August 2026.
- They lost 4-3 at home to Fram Reykjavik on 24 August 2026.
The teams met earlier this season in the league.
In that match, Breidablik scored three goals and limited KA Akureyri to one. However, KA Akureyri won the most recent away fixture in this head-to-head, a 1-0 victory in May 2025, so the home side can compete.
- 21 June 2026: Breidablik 3-1 KA Akureyri.
- 11 May 2025: KA Akureyri 0-1 Breidablik.
- 3 August 2025: Breidablik 1-1 KA Akureyri.
KA co-head coach Eiður Smári Guðjohnsen now shares first-team responsibility with Hallgrímur Jónasson after joining the staff late in the regular season.
A newly installed co-head-coach arrangement can change match preparation, selection decisions and in-game tactical adjustments. The exact division of duties between Guðjohnsen and Jónasson is not specified, so the practical effect on KA's approach remains uncertain.
- Guðjohnsen led his first KA training session on 21 August.
- Vísir reported that he became KA head coach alongside Hallgrímur Jónasson.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 00:56 · Europe/BucharestVísir: Guðjohnsen leads first KA trainingwww.visir.is · 21 Aug 2026Fótbolti.net: Guðjohnsen appointed alongside Jónassonfotbolti.net · 20 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Breidablik

2.15fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 46.5%

0.0ppshort

Breidablik's superior league position and recent H2H win give them the edge, though their poor away form tempers confidence.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Breidablik's superior league position and recent H2H win give them the edge, though their poor away form tempers confidence.
- Breidablik sit 4th with 30 points, while KA are bottom with 17 points after 21 matches.
- Breidablik won the most recent H2H 3-1 at home in June 2026.
- KA have lost 7 of 10 home league matches this season.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBreidablikEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KA's poor home record and current form make them unlikely to win, so backing Breidablik or draw is strongly supported.
- KA have only 2 wins in 10 home matches this season.
- Breidablik have lost only 3 of 10 away matches, drawing 5.
- KA's recent form is DLDLL, with no wins in their last 5.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or BreidablikEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to be level at the break, making a first-half draw plausible.
- KA have drawn at half-time in 4 of their last 10 matches.
- Breidablik have drawn at half-time in 4 of their last 10 matches.
- Both teams average similar first-half goals scored (0.7).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Breidablik win is a plausible scenario given KA's second-half struggles.
- Breidablik have won 3 of their last 10 away matches.
- KA have drawn at half-time in 40% of recent matches.
- Breidablik's away form includes 5 draws in 10 matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/BreidablikEstimated chance25%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high goals for and against averages, and recent H2H suggests an open game.
- KA average 1.7 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per match over the last 15.
- Breidablik average 1.9 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per match over the last 15.
- The last H2H meeting produced 4 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
KA's ability to score at home and Breidablik's defensive vulnerabilities make both teams scoring likely.
- KA have scored in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Breidablik have conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half goal averages suggest a decent chance of at least 2 goals before the break.
- KA average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Breidablik average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.95 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been higher scoring for both teams, supporting over 1.5 goals after the break.
- KA's matches average 2.3 second-half goals based on total and first-half splits.
- Breidablik's matches average 2.0 second-half goals based on total and first-half splits.
- Both teams tend to concede more in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KA's defensive record at home is poor, making a clean sheet highly unlikely.
- KA have conceded in 9 of their last 10 home matches.
- Breidablik have scored in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
- KA's average goals conceded at home is 2.0 per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBreidablik to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Breidablik's away defensive record is not strong, and KA can find the net at home.
- Breidablik have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 10 away matches.
- KA have scored in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
- Breidablik's away goals conceded average is 1.8 per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKA Akureyri to scoreEstimated chance60%