VirsligaFull time

Predictions graded

FK Auda1Grobina0

HT 0–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 07:24 · Europe/Bucharest

FK Auda are strong favorites at home against a poor Grobina away side, but their 120-minute cup semi-final four days ago adds fatigue risk.

The best value is Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 (+3 point edge), while the first-half Over 0.5 at 1.29 is a clear avoid due to a -12 point gap. The home win at 1.43 is likely but offers only a marginal edge.

Context

Auda sits third in the Virsliga with 53 points from 27 matches.
Auda's recent home results show a team that is difficult to beat at their own ground. They beat Tukums 3-0 on 2026-08-21, FK Liepaja 1-0 on 2026-08-25, and drew 1-1 with Super Nova on 2026-08-29. This run suggests they can control matches at home, though the draw against Super Nova shows they are not always dominant.
- Auda beat Tukums 3-0 at home on 2026-08-21.
- Auda beat FK Liepaja 1-0 at home on 2026-08-25.
- Auda drew 1-1 with Super Nova at home on 2026-08-29.
FK Auda played 120 minutes in their Latvian Cup semi-final against BFC Daugavpils on 2 September, winning on penalties.
The short recovery window before facing Grobina could lead to some rotation or reduced intensity, especially among players who went the full distance. However, the squad's depth and the lower level of opposition may mitigate the impact.
- The Latvian Football Federation records BFC Daugavpils 2-2 FK Auda after extra time on 2 September.
- Auda won the penalty shootout 3-0 to reach the Latvian Cup final.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 07:23 · Europe/BucharestLatvian Football Federation match recordlff.lv · 2 Sep 2026
Grobina is eighth in the Virsliga with 24 points from 28 matches.
Grobina's away form is a major concern. They lost 3-1 at FK Liepaja on 2026-08-21, 6-1 at Rīgas FS on 2026-08-10, and 4-0 at Riga on 2026-08-02. These heavy defeats show they struggle to defend on the road, which could be a problem against an Auda side that scores regularly at home.
- Grobina lost 3-1 at FK Liepaja on 2026-08-21.
- Grobina lost 6-1 at Rīgas FS on 2026-08-10.
- Grobina lost 4-0 at Riga on 2026-08-02.
The teams have met five times since March 2026, with Auda winning twice, Grobina once, and two draws.
Auda's 3-2 Cup win on 2026-08-17 shows they can score against Grobina, but the 0-0 league draw on 2026-06-25 suggests Grobina can frustrate them. The head-to-head record is mixed, so this match could be closer than the league table suggests.
- Auda beat Grobina 3-2 in the Cup on 2026-08-17.
- The teams drew 0-0 in the Virsliga on 2026-06-25.
- Auda beat Grobina 7-0 in the Virsliga on 2026-05-07.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FK Auda's strong home form and dominant H2H record against Grobina, who struggle away, make a home win highly likely.
- FK Auda home record: 8W 2D 4L, 26 goals scored, 15 conceded in 14 home matches
- Grobina away record: 2W 4D 8L, 8 goals scored, 31 conceded in 14 away matches
- H2H last 5: Auda 3W, 2D, 0L, including 7-0 home win in May 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFK AudaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Auda's home strength and Grobina's poor away form, Auda avoiding defeat is very likely.
- FK Auda home record: 8W 2D 4L
- Grobina away record: 2W 4D 8L
- H2H last 5: Auda never lost to Grobina
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFK Auda or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Auda's tendency to lead at half-time at home and Grobina's away struggles support an Auda first-half lead.
- FK Auda leading at half-time at home: 40% of matches
- Grobina trailing at half-time away: 40% of matches
- H2H last 5: Auda led at half-time in 2 of 5 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFK AudaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Auda's home dominance and Grobina's away weakness make an Auda lead at half-time and full-time a strong possibility.
- FK Auda home win rate: 57%
- FK Auda leading at half-time at home: 40%
- Grobina away loss rate: 57%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFK Auda/FK AudaEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Auda could dominate both halves, but winning both halves is a less common outcome.
- FK Auda home win rate: 57%
- FK Auda leading at half-time at home: 40%
- Grobina away loss rate: 57%
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostYesEstimated chance35%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high total goals, and recent H2H meetings have been high-scoring.
- FK Auda home matches average 2.93 total goals (26 scored + 15 conceded in 14 games)
- Grobina away matches average 2.79 total goals (8 scored + 31 conceded in 14 games)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Grobina's poor away scoring record and Auda's decent home defense suggest at least one team may not score.
- FK Auda home clean sheets: 5 in 14 home matches (36%)
- Grobina away failed to score: 7 in 14 away matches (50%)
- Grobina away goals per game: 0.57
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Grobina's away scoring struggles make an Auda clean sheet a plausible outcome.
- FK Auda home clean sheets: 5 in 14 home matches (36%)
- Grobina away failed to score: 7 in 14 away matches (50%)
- Grobina away goals per game: 0.57
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGrobina not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see first-half goals, especially with Grobina's leaky away defense.
- FK Auda first half goals at home: 0.5 per game average
- Grobina first half goals conceded away: 0.8 per game average
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 matches had at least one first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open, especially with Grobina's defensive lapses away from home.
- FK Auda home second half goals: 1.36 per game (26 total - 0.5 first half avg *14)
- Grobina away second half goals conceded: 1.64 per game (31 total - 0.8 first half avg *14)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 53% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; the edge is too thin and the market is efficient.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L3-2AudavGrobiņaAug 17, 2026CUP

D0-0GrobiņavAudaJun 25, 2026VIR

L7-0AudavGrobiņaMay 7, 2026VIR

W0-2GrobiņavAudaMar 14, 2026VIR

D2-2GrobiņavAudaNov 9, 2025VIR

FK Auda: 2 clean sheetsGrobina: 2 clean sheets3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Virsliga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	FK Auda	27	16	5	6	44-27	53	DWWWW
8	Grobina	28	5	9	14	20-50	24	WLLLD

29pt gap between teams

Recent Form

FK Auda

D1-1Super NovaAug 29VIR

W1-0FK LiepajaAug 25VIR

W3-0TukumsAug 21VIR

L0-4Dinamo TiranaAug 13UEF

W1-0FS JelgavaAug 9VIR

W1-0Dinamo TiranaAug 4UEF

W4-1FCSBJul 30UEF

W1-0BFC DaugavpilsJul 26VIR

W3-2FCSBJul 23UEF

W1-0FK LiepajaJul 11CUP

D1-1Rīgas FSJul 4VIR

L0-2RigaJun 29VIR

D0-0GrobiņaJun 25VIR

W2-0Super NovaJun 21VIR

L1-2TukumsJun 17VIR

Grobina

W1-0BFC DaugavpilsAug 29VIR

L1-3FK LiepajaAug 21VIR

L1-6Rīgas FSAug 10VIR

L0-4RigaAug 2VIR

D2-2Ogre UnitedJul 27VIR

L0-2Super NovaJul 20VIR

W1-0MārupeJul 12CUP

W3-1TukumsJul 5VIR

L0-2FS JelgavaJun 29VIR

D0-0AudaJun 25VIR

L0-1BFC DaugavpilsJun 20VIR

W1-0FK LiepajaJun 16VIR

L1-3Rīgas FSJun 13VIR

L0-2RigaMay 29VIR

D1-1Ogre UnitedMay 25VIR

Squad & Injuries

FK Auda

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders14

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Grobina

27 available

Attackers2

Midfielders14

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

FK Auda

FK Auda or Draw

FK Auda at half-time / FK Auda at full-time

Over 2.5

No

Over 0.5

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

FK Auda

Grobina

Squad & Injuries

FK Auda

Grobina