VirsligaFull time

Predictions graded

Grobina1BFC Daugavpils0

HT 0–0Sat 29 Aug 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–456%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Aug 2026, 23:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Under 2.5 goals (60% model vs 50% implied) and the first-half draw (55% vs 45%) for value.

Avoid the away win at 2.00—BFC Daugavpils' poor away form and Grobina's home resilience make it a negative-edge bet.

Context

Grobina sit 8th in the Virsliga with 21 points from 27 matches.
They have lost four of their last five league games, including a 3-1 defeat to FK Liepaja on 21 August and a 6-1 loss to Rigas FS on 10 August. Their defensive record is weak, conceding 50 goals in 27 matches, and they have only won twice at home all season. This poor run suggests they may struggle to contain BFC Daugavpils, who have scored in most recent matches.
- Lost 3-1 to FK Liepaja on 21 August 2026.
- Lost 6-1 to Rigas FS on 10 August 2026.
- Conceded 50 goals in 27 league matches.
BFC Daugavpils sit 4th in the Virsliga with 37 points from 27 matches.
They have won three of their last five league games, including a 2-0 win over Tukums on 8 August and a 2-1 win over FS Jelgava on 1 August. Their away form is decent with two wins and five draws in 12 matches, and they have scored 16 goals on the road. This suggests they can exploit Grobina's defensive weaknesses.
- Won 2-0 against Tukums on 8 August 2026.
- Won 2-1 against FS Jelgava on 1 August 2026.
- Away record: 2 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses in 12 matches.
The teams have met five times in the last two seasons.
BFC Daugavpils won the most recent encounter 1-0 on 20 June 2026, and they have won three of the last five meetings. Grobina's only win in that span came in March 2026. This head-to-head trend suggests BFC Daugavpils have a psychological edge, though past results do not guarantee future outcomes.
- BFC Daugavpils won 1-0 on 20 June 2026.
- BFC Daugavpils won 3-2 on 15 September 2025.
- Grobina won 1-0 on 7 March 2026.
Grobiņa midfielder I. Tyshchenko came on at half-time in the latest league match at Liepāja and assisted the 78th-minute goal. He has started 0 of the 5 recent fixtures with available lineups, while M. Corryn started in the same position in all 5.
That confirms Tyshchenko is available and gives Grobiņa a recently used midfield creation option, though it does not establish a starting place here. His cameo could push for more minutes, but Corryn's consistent starts leave the selection uncertain.
- The official 21 August match protocol records Tyshchenko replacing Maksims Sidorovs in the 58th minute.
- The same protocol records him assisting Grobiņa’s 78th-minute goal.
- I. Tyshchenko started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- M. Corryn started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when I. Tyshchenko did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 09:37 · Europe/BucharestLatvian Football Federation official match protocollff.lv · 21 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
BFC Daugavpils' superior league position and positive H2H record give them the edge, but their poor away form and Grobina's home resilience temper confidence.
- BFC Daugavpils rank 4th with 37 points; Grobina rank 8th with 21 points.
- BFC Daugavpils away record: 2W-5D-5L; Grobina home record: 2W-5D-6L.
- Last 5 H2H: BFC Daugavpils won 3, Grobina won 1, 1 draw.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBFC DaugavpilsEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Grobina's poor overall form and BFC Daugavpils' stronger record make the away side or draw the safer double chance.
- Grobina have lost 14 of 27 league matches this season.
- BFC Daugavpils have lost only 10 of 27 matches.
- H2H: BFC Daugavpils unbeaten in 4 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or BFC DaugavpilsEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making a level half-time score likely.
- Grobina led at half-time in only 13% of matches, trailed in 40%.
- BFC Daugavpils led at half-time in 27% of matches, trailed in 13%.
- H2H: 2 of 3 2026 meetings were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a BFC Daugavpils win is a plausible pattern given the teams' tendencies.
- BFC Daugavpils have won 10 of 27 matches, often after a level first half.
- Grobina have lost 14 of 27 matches, with many losses after a level first half.
- H2H: BFC Daugavpils won 1-0 after a 0-0 first half in June 2026.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/BFC DaugavpilsEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The low-scoring pattern in recent H2H matches and both teams' modest goal averages support a low total.
- All three 2026 H2H meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
- Grobina average 0.7 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per match.
- BFC Daugavpils average 1.4 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Grobina's scoring struggles and BFC Daugavpils' defensive solidity make a clean sheet for the away side likely.
- Grobina failed to score in 3 of last 5 matches.
- BFC Daugavpils kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 matches.
- H2H: only 1 of last 5 meetings saw both teams score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
BFC Daugavpils' strong defensive record against a weak Grobina attack supports a clean sheet.
- BFC Daugavpils conceded only 0.7 goals per match on average.
- Grobina scored only 0.7 goals per match on average.
- BFC Daugavpils kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGrobina not to scoreEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, and recent H2H first halves have been low-scoring.
- Grobina average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- BFC Daugavpils average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.2 conceded.
- H2H: first halves in 2026 meetings produced 0, 1, and 0 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The overall low-scoring trend and modest second-half averages suggest a low second-half total.
- Grobina average 0.4 second-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded.
- BFC Daugavpils average 1.0 second-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- H2H: second halves in 2026 meetings produced 1, 0, and 1 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without direct corner stats, the low-scoring and low-shot profile of both teams supports a low corner total.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Low-scoring matches often correlate with fewer corners.
- Both teams average low possession and shots, suggesting fewer corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 32% vs our estimate 25% leaves no value; the market already prices Grobina as underdogs.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L1-0BFC DaugavpilsvGrobiņaJun 20, 2026VIR

D1-1GrobiņavBFC DaugavpilsMay 2, 2026VIR

W0-1BFC DaugavpilsvGrobiņaMar 7, 2026VIR

L3-2BFC DaugavpilsvGrobiņaSep 15, 2025VIR

L3-2BFC DaugavpilsvGrobiņaJun 26, 2025VIR

2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Virsliga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Grobina	27	4	9	14	19-50	21	LLLDL
4	BFC Daugavpils	27	10	7	10	33-31	37	DWWLW

16pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Grobina

L1-3FK LiepajaAug 21VIR

L1-6Rīgas FSAug 10VIR

L0-4RigaAug 2VIR

D2-2Ogre UnitedJul 27VIR

L0-2Super NovaJul 20VIR

W1-0MārupeJul 12CUP

W3-1TukumsJul 5VIR

L0-2FS JelgavaJun 29VIR

D0-0AudaJun 25VIR

L0-1BFC DaugavpilsJun 20VIR

W1-0FK LiepajaJun 16VIR

L1-3Rīgas FSJun 13VIR

L0-2RigaMay 29VIR

D1-1Ogre UnitedMay 25VIR

L0-2Super NovaMay 20VIR

BFC Daugavpils

D0-0Super NovaAug 22VIR

W3-1Ogre UnitedAug 14CUP

W2-0TukumsAug 8VIR

W2-1FS JelgavaAug 1VIR

L0-1AudaJul 26VIR

W4-0Ogre UnitedJul 19VIR

W3-1FK LiepajaJul 4VIR

L1-3Rīgas FSJun 30VIR

D0-0RigaJun 25VIR

W1-0GrobiņaJun 20VIR

D0-0Super NovaJun 16VIR

D1-1TukumsJun 12VIR

D1-1FS JelgavaMay 31VIR

L0-1AudaMay 26VIR

W3-1Ogre UnitedMay 21VIR

Squad & Injuries

Grobina

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

BFC Daugavpils

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders6

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

No

BFC Daugavpils

Draw or BFC Daugavpils

Under 1.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Under 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Grobina

BFC Daugavpils

Squad & Injuries

Grobina

BFC Daugavpils