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Predictions graded

Slavia Prague4Zbrojovka Brno0

HT 1–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 16–11On targetOn target 6–0CornersCorners 5–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 17:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Slavia Prague are strong favourites, but their odds are too short to back.

The best value is Both Teams to Score (Yes) at 1.91, with a 6-point edge over the market. Avoid the first-half result and HT/FT markets, where Brno's resilience makes Slavia's short prices poor value.

Context

Slavia Prague are the current league leaders with 14 points from six matches, having won four and drawn two. Zbrojovka Brno are fourth with 10 points from five matches, having won three, drawn one, and lost one.
Slavia Prague's unbeaten start and top position give them a strong platform, but Zbrojovka Brno's solid away record (one win and one draw in two away games) suggests they can compete. The four-point gap between the teams adds importance to this match for both sides.
- Slavia Prague are 1st with 14 points from 6 matches (4W, 2D, 0L).
- Zbrojovka Brno are 4th with 10 points from 5 matches (3W, 1D, 1L).
- Slavia Prague have scored 17 goals and conceded 5, while Zbrojovka Brno have scored 9 and conceded 5.
Slavia Prague's last league match was a 3-0 away win against Sparta Prague on August 30, 2026. They also drew 2-2 at home with Bohemians 1905 on August 22 and won 4-0 at Baník Ostrava on August 1.
The win over Sparta Prague, a traditional rival, demonstrates Slavia Prague's ability to perform in high-stakes matches. However, their home form has been less dominant, with a draw against Bohemians 1905, so Zbrojovka Brno may find opportunities.
- Slavia Prague won 3-0 at Sparta Praha on 2026-08-30.
- Slavia Prague drew 2-2 at home against Bohemians 1905 on 2026-08-22.
- Slavia Prague won 4-0 at Baník Ostrava on 2026-08-01.
Slavia Prague defender T. Holeš started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
A health problem kept him out of the 30 August derby and no clearance has been reported since. If he remains unavailable, Slavia would need a late change in central defence, but the exact replacement and any effect on organisation are not yet known.
- Slavia’s official derby team announcement said health problems prevented Tomáš Holeš from playing on 30 August.
- T. Holeš started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 17:31 · Europe/BucharestSlavia derby team newswww.slavia.cz · 30 Aug 2026
Zbrojovka Brno's recent league results include a 3-2 home win over Zlin on August 29, a 2-0 away win at Teplice on August 23, and a 1-0 home loss to Slovan Liberec on August 7.
Zbrojovka Brno have been effective on the road, winning at Teplice and drawing at Plzen. Their ability to score goals (9 in 5 league games) will test Slavia Prague's defense, which has conceded only 5 goals in 6 matches.
- Zbrojovka Brno won 3-2 at home against Zlin on 2026-08-29.
- Zbrojovka Brno won 2-0 away at Teplice on 2026-08-23.
- Zbrojovka Brno lost 0-1 at home to Slovan Liberec on 2026-08-07.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Slavia Prague

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Slavia's superior league position, home advantage, and strong recent form make them clear favourites, supported by H2H dominance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Slavia Prague or Draw

1.05fair 1.11

BetBugs 90% · Market 95%

−5.0ppshort

Slavia's unbeaten league record and home strength make a Slavia win or draw highly likely.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Slavia Prague

1.62fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 62%

0.0ppshort

Slavia's tendency to lead at half-time and home advantage give them an edge, though Brno's resilience keeps probability moderate.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Slavia Prague at half-time / Slavia Prague at full-time

1.73fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 58%

0.0ppshort

Slavia's ability to lead at half-time and maintain leads makes HT/FT Slavia/Slavia a plausible outcome.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.43fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high scoring averages and recent matches often exceed 2.5 goals, making over 2.5 likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Slavia's superior league position, home advantage, and strong recent form make them clear favourites, supported by H2H dominance.
- Slavia are 1st with 14 points from 6 games (W4 D2 L0), scoring 17 and conceding 5.
- Brno are 4th with 10 points from 5 games (W3 D1 L1), scoring 9 and conceding 5.
- Slavia have won 4 of their last 5 league matches, including a 3-0 away win at Sparta Praha.
- H2H: Slavia won the last meeting 2-0 at home in Feb 2023 and won 4-0 away in Aug 2022.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSlavia PragueEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Slavia's unbeaten league record and home strength make a Slavia win or draw highly likely.
- Slavia are unbeaten in 6 league games this season (W4 D2).
- Slavia have not lost at home in the league this season (W2 D1).
- Brno have lost only 1 of 5 league games, but that loss was at home to Slovan Liberec.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSlavia Prague or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Slavia's tendency to lead at half-time and home advantage give them an edge, though Brno's resilience keeps probability moderate.
- Slavia led at half-time in 53% of their last 15 matches.
- Brno trailed at half-time in only 13% of their last 15 matches.
- Slavia scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSlavia PragueEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Slavia's ability to lead at half-time and maintain leads makes HT/FT Slavia/Slavia a plausible outcome.
- Slavia led at half-time in 53% of their last 15 matches and won 73% of those matches.
- Brno trailed at half-time in only 13% of their last 15 matches.
- Slavia have won 4 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonSlavia Prague/Slavia PragueEstimated chance42%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring averages and recent matches often exceed 2.5 goals, making over 2.5 likely.
- Slavia average 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game in their last 15 matches.
- Brno average 2.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game in their last 15 matches.
- Slavia's last 5 league matches produced 3, 4, 2, 3, and 6 total goals.
- Brno's last 5 league matches produced 5, 2, 1, 2, and 4 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brno's strong scoring form and Slavia's occasional defensive lapses suggest both teams can score.
- Slavia have conceded in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Brno have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Brno average 2.7 goals scored per game in their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, with combined first-half goal averages exceeding 1.5.
- Slavia average 1.3 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- Brno average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- Slavia led at half-time in 53% of their last 15 matches; Brno led in 60%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the second half, with combined averages supporting over 1.5 goals.
- Slavia average 1.0 second-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- Brno average 1.7 second-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- Combined second-half goal averages exceed 1.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages slightly exceed 9.5, but variance is high, so confidence is low.
- Slavia average 5.7 corners per game and concede 5.3 opponent corners in their last 15 matches.
- Brno average 3.8 corners per game and concede 4.6 opponent corners in their last 15 matches.
- Combined average corners per game: 5.7 + 4.6 = 10.3.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages exceed 8.5, but data is limited to recent matches.
- Slavia average 5.8 shots on target per game and concede 3.5 opponent shots on target.
- Brno average 3.6 shots on target per game and concede 3.9 opponent shots on target.
- Combined average shots on target: 5.8 + 3.9 = 9.7.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages are below 3.5, but disciplinary variance makes this a coin flip.
- Slavia average 1.6 yellow cards per game and concede 1.5 opponent yellow cards.
- Brno average 2.0 yellow cards per game and concede 1.3 opponent yellow cards.
- Combined average yellow cards: 1.6 + 1.3 = 2.9, below 3.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 82% leaves no cushion vs our 72% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 1W

L2-0Slavia PrahavZbrojovka BrnoFeb 11, 2023CZE

W0-4Zbrojovka BrnovSlavia PrahaAug 28, 2022CZE

D0-0Zbrojovka BrnovSlavia PrahaApr 4, 2021CZE

D1-1Slavia PrahavZbrojovka BrnoNov 29, 2020CZE

Slavia Prague: 2 clean sheetsZbrojovka Brno: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Czech Liga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Slavia Prague Play-offs	6	4	2	0	17-5	14	WDDWW
4	Zbrojovka Brno Play-offs	5	3	1	1	9-5	10	WWLDW

4pt gap between teamsSlavia Prague leads the league

Recent Form

Slavia Prague

W3-0Sparta PrahaAug 30CZE

D2-2Bohemians 1905Aug 22CZE

D1-1Slovan LiberecAug 16CZE

W2-1PardubiceAug 9CZE

W4-0Baník OstravaAug 1CZE

W5-1SlováckoJul 26CZE

W2-0LyonJul 18FRI

W3-0RužomberokJul 12FRI

L0-1Slovan BratislavaJul 11FRI

D2-2Wieczysta KrakówJul 5FRI

L1-2VlašimJul 1FRI

D1-1Dynamo KyivJun 20FRI

W3-0PlzenMay 24CZE

L1-3Hradec KrálovéMay 17CZE

W5-1FK JablonecMay 13CZE

Zbrojovka Brno

W3-2ZlinAug 29CZE

W10-0FrýdlantAug 26CUP

W2-0TepliceAug 23CZE

L0-1Slovan LiberecAug 7CZE

D1-1PlzenAug 1CZE

W3-1Sparta PrahaJul 25CZE

W2-0PodbrezováJul 17FRI

L0-2TSV HartbergJul 8FRI

W2-1CsikszeredaJul 4FRI

W4-2Tiszakecske FCJul 1FRI

W3-0NyiregyhazaJun 30FRI

W4-1ProstějovJun 23FRI

W4-1České BudějoviceMay 23FNL

D1-1HanáckáMay 16FNL

W1-0VlašimMay 10FNL

Squad & Injuries

Slavia Prague

40 available

Attackers8

Midfielders14

Defenders13

Goalkeeper5

Zbrojovka Brno

35 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders12

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Over 1.5

Slavia Prague

Slavia Prague or Draw

Slavia Prague

Slavia Prague at half-time / Slavia Prague at full-time

Over 2.5

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Slavia Prague

Slavia Prague or Draw

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Slavia Prague

Zbrojovka Brno

Squad & Injuries

Slavia Prague

Zbrojovka Brno