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Predictions graded

Sparta Prague0Slavia Prague3

HT 0–1Sun 30 Aug 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 71%–29%ShotsShots 22–8On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 13–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 17:05 · Europe/Bucharest

The Prague derby at Letná is historically low-scoring and Sparta-friendly.

The best value is Under 2.5 goals (edge +8pts) and Both Teams to Score – No (edge +9.5pts), while the home double chance and Slavia win are overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Slavia Prague are the current league leaders in the Czech Liga, while Sparta Prague are in fifth place.
Slavia Prague have won three and drawn two of their five league matches, scoring 14 goals and conceding only five. Sparta Prague have won three and lost two, with their two defeats coming in their last three league games. This gap in form and table position means Slavia enter the derby with a stronger recent record, but Sparta's home advantage could narrow the difference.
- Slavia Prague are 1st with 11 points from 5 matches (3W, 2D, 0L).
- Sparta Prague are 5th with 9 points from 5 matches (3W, 0D, 2L).
- Sparta Prague lost 0-2 to Mlada Boleslav on 2026-08-08 and 1-3 to Zbrojovka Brno on 2026-07-25.
Slavia Prague have played two away matches in the league this season.
Slavia Prague won 4-0 at Baník Ostrava on 2026-08-01 and drew 1-1 at Slovan Liberec on 2026-08-16. Their away record shows they can score freely and defend solidly on the road. Sparta Prague have won both home league matches this season, so this derby will test which team's home or away form is stronger.
- Slavia Prague away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses, 5 goals for, 1 goal against.
- Slavia Prague beat Baník Ostrava 4-0 away on 2026-08-01.
- Slavia Prague drew 1-1 at Slovan Liberec on 2026-08-16.
Slavia defender Tomáš Holeš started all five recent fixtures with available lineups, totalling 355 minutes.
Holeš left the Bohemians match on medical grounds and his derby availability is unconfirmed. If he cannot play, Slavia must change the defensive unit that began their most recent league match.
- Slavia’s match report says Holeš had to be substituted for health reasons after a hard challenge.
- iDNES lists Holeš among Slavia’s uncertain starters for the derby.
- T. Holeš started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 355 minutes across 5 appearances.
To watchSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 04:16 · Europe/BucharestSK Slavia Praha — Vršovické derby vítěze nepoznalowww.slavia.cz · 22 Aug 2026iDNES.cz — Sparta - Slavia živě: sestavy a absencesazeni.idnes.cz · 28 Aug 2026
Sparta Prague have played two home matches in the league this season.
Sparta Prague beat Teplice 4-1 on 2026-08-15 and Zlin 3-1 on 2026-07-31 at home. Their home form is strong, but they have lost their last two away league games. Slavia Prague have been solid away, so this match will show whether Sparta's home advantage can overcome Slavia's overall consistency.
- Sparta Prague home record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 7 goals for, 2 goals against.
- Sparta Prague beat Teplice 4-1 at home on 2026-08-15.
- Sparta Prague beat Zlin 3-1 at home on 2026-07-31.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The H2H psychology at Letná shows a strong draw tendency with low-scoring games, and both teams are in solid form, making a stalemate likely.
- Sparta's last 4 home league derbies vs Slavia: 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 0-0 (3 draws, 1 win)
- Slavia unbeaten in last 5 league matches (3W, 2D), but only 1 win in last 3 away league derbies
- Sparta home record this season: 2W, 0D, 0L, but Slavia away record: 1W, 1D, 0L
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sparta's strong home form and historical home dominance in this fixture support a double chance for the home side.
- Sparta unbeaten in last 4 home league derbies vs Slavia (1W, 3D)
- Sparta home record this season: 2W, 0D, 0L, goals for 7, against 2
- Slavia away record this season: 1W, 1D, 0L, but only 1 win in last 3 away league derbies
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSparta Prague or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be tight with both teams respecting each other, leading to a draw at the break.
- Sparta leading at half time in 40% of matches, Slavia in 53%
- Last 4 home derbies at Letná half time results: D, W, D, D (3 draws)
- Both teams have strong first half defenses: Sparta concedes 0.7 first half goals, Slavia 0.5
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half time and full time is a plausible outcome given the historical pattern of tight derbies.
- Last 4 home derbies at Letná: 3 draws at half time, 3 draws at full time
- Sparta and Slavia both have high draw rates in derbies
- Both teams are in good form, making a stalemate plausible
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern at Letná is strongly low-scoring, and derby intensity typically reduces goal output despite both teams' attacking stats.
- Last 4 home league derbies at Letná: total goals 2, 2, 0, 0 (all under 2.5)
- Sparta home league games this season: 7 goals in 2 games (3.5 avg), but derbies tend to be tighter
- Slavia away league games this season: 5 goals in 2 games (2.5 avg)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slavia's scoring struggles at Letná and Sparta's solid home defense suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- Slavia failed to score in 3 of last 4 away league derbies at Letná
- Sparta kept clean sheets in 2 of last 4 home derbies
- Sparta home league games this season: conceded 2 goals in 2 games (1.0 avg)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Derbies often start cautiously, and the historical first-half scoring in this fixture is very low.
- Sparta first half goals per game: 0.8, Slavia first half goals per game: 1.3
- Last 4 home derbies at Letná first half goals: 1, 1, 0, 0 (all under 1.5)
- Slavia first half goals conceded per game: 0.5
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half may see more action, but the overall low-scoring derby trend keeps the under 1.5 second half goals probable.
- Last 4 home derbies at Letná second half goals: 1, 1, 0, 0 (all under 1.5)
- Sparta second half goals per game: 1.1, Slavia second half goals per game: 1.0
- Both teams tend to score more in second half, but derby context lowers totals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 6 corners each, and derby intensity could push the total over 9.5.
- Sparta average corners per game: 6.0, Slavia average corners per game: 6.1
- Combined average corners in their matches: 12.1
- Derbies often produce more corners due to attacking intent
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derby matches tend to be more physical, increasing the likelihood of cards, though the base averages are moderate.
- Sparta average yellow cards per game: 1.2, Slavia average yellow cards per game: 1.6
- Combined average yellow cards: 2.8, but derbies often see more cards
- Both teams have red card averages of 0.5 per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 69% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

W0-3Slavia PrahavSparta PrahaMay 9, 2026CZE

L3-1Slavia PrahavSparta PrahaMar 8, 2026CZE

D1-1Sparta PrahavSlavia PrahaOct 5, 2025CZE

L2-1Slavia PrahavSparta PrahaMay 10, 2025CZE

L2-0Sparta PrahavSlavia PrahaMar 8, 2025CZE

2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Czech Liga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Sparta Prague Play-offs	5	3	0	2	12-7	9	WWLWL
1	Slavia Prague Play-offs	5	3	2	0	14-5	11	DDWWW

2pt gap between teamsSlavia Prague leads the league

Recent Form

Sparta Prague

W4-0ArtisAug 22CZE

W4-1TepliceAug 15CZE

L0-3LyonAug 11UEF

L0-2Mlada BoleslavAug 8CZE

W2-1LyonAug 4UEF

W3-1ZlinJul 31CZE

L1-3Zbrojovka BrnoJul 25CZE

L1-5FC NordsjaellandJul 17FRI

L0-1JagielloniaJul 16FRI

W3-0Gamba OsakaJul 11FRI

W4-1OpavaJul 4FRI

W2-1Hradec KrálovéMay 24CZE

W2-0Slovan LiberecMay 17CZE

D0-0PlzenMay 12CZE

W2-0FK JablonecMay 3CZE

Slavia Prague

D2-2Bohemians 1905Aug 22CZE

D1-1Slovan LiberecAug 16CZE

W2-1PardubiceAug 9CZE

W4-0Baník OstravaAug 1CZE

W5-1SlováckoJul 26CZE

W2-0LyonJul 18FRI

W3-0RužomberokJul 12FRI

L0-1Slovan BratislavaJul 11FRI

D2-2Wieczysta KrakówJul 5FRI

L1-2VlašimJul 1FRI

D1-1Dynamo KyivJun 20FRI

W3-0PlzenMay 24CZE

L1-3Hradec KrálovéMay 17CZE

W5-1FK JablonecMay 13CZE

W2-1Slovan LiberecMay 2CZE

Squad & Injuries

Sparta Prague

34 available

Attackers5

Midfielders14

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Slavia Prague

44 available

Attackers8

Midfielders15

Defenders16

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Sparta Prague or Draw

Under 1.5

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

@ 1.43

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sparta Prague

Slavia Prague

Squad & Injuries

Sparta Prague

Slavia Prague