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Predictions graded

Maritimo0Benfica3

HT 0–1Sat 5 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges6–275%

PossPossession 40%–60%ShotsShots 6–11On targetOn target 1–6CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 19:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Benfica are likely to win (72% model probability), but the odds of 1.25 offer no value.

The only clear positive edge is Both Teams to Score at 2.00, with a 55% model probability versus 50% implied. Avoid the heavily juiced outright and double chance markets.

Context

Benfica has played two Primeira Liga matches this season, winning one and drawing one.
Their 7-0 away win at Casa Pia on August 17 shows they can overwhelm weaker defenses. Maritimo has conceded 5 goals in 4 league games, so Benfica's attack could create many chances. However, Benfica's only other league match was a 2-2 home draw, so their scoring may be less consistent against organized teams.
- Benfica beat Casa Pia 7-0 away on 2026-08-17.
- Benfica drew 2-2 at home with Academico Viseu on 2026-08-09.
- Benfica averages 3.1 goals per game in the league this season.
Maritimo has played two home league matches this season.
They beat Casa Pia 1-0 on August 8 and drew 2-2 with Academico Viseu on August 22. Their home form suggests they can compete, but Benfica's away record is stronger with a 7-0 win. Maritimo's defense has allowed 2 goals in those home games, which may be tested by Benfica's attack.
- Maritimo beat Casa Pia 1-0 at home on 2026-08-08.
- Maritimo drew 2-2 at home with Academico Viseu on 2026-08-22.
Benfica midfielder F. Aursnes missed the Aarhus trip with a right-ankle sprain and has not started any of the last five available lineups.
His availability for Marítimo remains unresolved, leaving Benfica's central-midfield selection uncertain. The absence of a formal update means the sprain could still rule him out or limit his involvement.
- Benfica stated that Aursnes did not join the travelling party for Aarhus because of a right-ankle sprain.
- Marco Silva said on 26 August that Aursnes was again unavailable for the Aarhus match.
- F. Aursnes started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 19:15 · Europe/BucharestSL Benficawww.slbenfica.pt · 27 Aug 2026SL Benficamedia.slbenfica.pt · 26 Aug 2026
The teams have met five times in the Primeira Liga since 2021.
Benfica won 3-0 at Maritimo on March 12, 2023, and 5-0 at home on September 18, 2022. Maritimo's only win in this span was a 1-0 home victory on April 5, 2021. This history suggests Benfica has a clear edge, but the most recent meeting was over three years ago, so current form matters more.
- Benfica won 3-0 at Maritimo on 2023-03-12.
- Benfica won 5-0 at home against Maritimo on 2022-09-18.
- Maritimo won 1-0 at home against Benfica on 2021-04-05.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Benfica

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's superior attacking output and dominant H2H record make an away win the most likely outcome.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Benfica

1.06fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 94%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's strong form and H2H dominance make a Maritimo win unlikely, supporting the double chance.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Benfica

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's superior first-half scoring suggests they are likely to lead at the break.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Benfica at half-time / Benfica at full-time

1.83fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 55%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's tendency to lead early and maintain dominance supports a HT/FT double.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.53fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's high-scoring attack and Maritimo's defensive vulnerabilities point to over 2.5 goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's strong first-half scoring record makes a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's superior attacking output and dominant H2H record make an away win the most likely outcome.
- Benfica average 3.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Maritimo average 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Benfica won 4 of last 5 H2H meetings, scoring 16 goals and conceding 1.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBenficaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's strong form and H2H dominance make a Maritimo win unlikely, supporting the double chance.
- Benfica have not lost in their last 5 H2H meetings against Maritimo.
- Maritimo have only 1 win in their last 4 league matches.
- Benfica average 3.1 goals per match compared to Maritimo's 1.2.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or BenficaEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's superior first-half scoring suggests they are likely to lead at the break.
- Benfica led at half-time in 67% of recent matches.
- Maritimo trailed at half-time in only 18% of matches.
- Benfica average 1.5 first-half goals compared to Maritimo's 0.5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBenficaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Benfica's tendency to lead early and maintain dominance supports a HT/FT double.
- Benfica led at half-time in 67% of recent matches.
- Benfica won 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Maritimo have not beaten Benfica in last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonBenfica/BenficaEstimated chance50%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's high-scoring attack and Maritimo's defensive vulnerabilities point to over 2.5 goals.
- Benfica matches average 4.2 total goals (3.1 for, 1.1 against).
- Maritimo matches average 2.5 total goals (1.2 for, 1.3 against).
- Last 5 H2H meetings averaged 3.4 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Maritimo's ability to score at home and Benfica's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Maritimo scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Benfica conceded in 3 of their last 5 matches across all competitions.
- Maritimo average 1.2 goals per match at home.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Maritimo's consistent scoring at home reduces the likelihood of a Benfica clean sheet.
- Benfica kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
- Maritimo scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Maritimo average 1.2 goals per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostMaritimo to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's strong first-half scoring record makes a first-half goal likely.
- Benfica average 1.5 first-half goals per match.
- Maritimo average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Benfica led at half-time in 67% of recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's high corner count could push the total over 9.5, though Maritimo's low numbers add uncertainty.
- Benfica average 7.2 corners per match.
- Maritimo average 2.9 corners per match.
- Combined average corners in Benfica matches is 10.5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's high shot volume should drive total shots on target over 8.5.
- Benfica average 8.7 shots on target per match.
- Maritimo average 4.1 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target is 12.8.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%