Süper LigFull time

Predictions graded

Erzurumspor1Konyaspor0

HT 1–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–936%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 34%–66%ShotsShots 12–14On targetOn target 4–1CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 13:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Erzurumspor and Konyaspor are both winless and defensively fragile, making goals likely, but the market has already priced in these outcomes, leaving no clear betting edge.

The best value may be in avoiding short-priced favorites like 'No' on clean sheets or first-half over 0.5 goals, where implied probabilities far exceed our estimates. Konyaspor's suspension of Bardhi and uncertainty over goalkeeper Güngördü add risk, but no market offers a compelling positive edge.

Context

Konyaspor are 18th in the Süper Lig with 0 points from 3 matches.
They lost 1-2 at home to Kocaelispor on 29 August, 2-4 away to Fenerbahçe on 22 August, and 0-1 at home to Rizespor on 15 August. This poor start means they need points urgently, but their defence has allowed seven goals in three games.
- Konyaspor lost 1-2 at home to Kocaelispor on 29 August 2026.
- Konyaspor lost 2-4 away to Fenerbahçe on 22 August 2026.
- Konyaspor lost 0-1 at home to Rizespor on 15 August 2026.
Erzurumspor are 17th in the Süper Lig with 1 point from 3 matches.
They drew 1-1 away to Gençlerbirliği on 28 August, lost 0-4 at home to Galatasaray on 21 August, and lost 0-3 away to Amed on 16 August. Their defence has been leaky, conceding eight goals, and they have scored only once.
- Erzurumspor drew 1-1 away to Gençlerbirliği on 28 August 2026.
- Erzurumspor lost 0-4 at home to Galatasaray on 21 August 2026.
- Erzurumspor lost 0-3 away to Amed on 16 August 2026.
The teams last met in a friendly on 5 July 2022.
Konyaspor won that match 4-0, and also won 2-1 in July 2021 and 2-1 in April 2021. However, these results are from several seasons ago and may not reflect current form.
- Konyaspor beat Erzurumspor 4-0 on 5 July 2022 in a friendly.
- Konyaspor beat Erzurumspor 2-1 on 25 July 2021 in a friendly.
- Konyaspor beat Erzurumspor 2-1 on 4 April 2021 in the Süper Lig.
Konyaspor midfielder E. Bardhi is suspended for this match after his red card against Kocaelispor on 29 August.
His absence removes a midfield selection option and forces a rotation adjustment. The ban is confirmed, so Konyaspor must plan without him.
- Konyaspor's official match report records E. Bardhi's 48th-minute red card against Kocaelispor on 29 August.
- A current Süper Lig suspension listing identifies Erzurumspor v Konyaspor on 5 September as E. Bardhi's one-match ban.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 13:19 · Europe/BucharestKonyaspor official match reportwww.konyaspor.org.tr · 29 Aug 2026Süper Lig injuries and suspensionssakat-ve-cezali.com · 29 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Erzurumspor or Draw

1.48fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 68%

0.0ppshort

Home advantage and Konyaspor's defensive struggles give Erzurumspor a reasonable chance to avoid defeat, but the odds already imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Combined average goals per match is 2.8 and Konyaspor's leaky defense supports a high-scoring game, but the edge is marginal.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.70fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown ability to score while also conceding regularly, making BTTS a likely outcome.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, with a combined average above 1 goal, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.

Team to ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Konyaspor to score

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Erzurumspor's defense has been leaky, making a home clean sheet unlikely.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Erzurumspor to score

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Konyaspor's defense has been poor, making an away clean sheet unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are in poor form and struggling for points, making a draw a plausible outcome despite Konyaspor's historical H2H edge.
- Erzurumspor home record this season: 0W-0D-1L, 0 goals scored, 4 conceded
- Konyaspor away record this season: 0W-0D-1L, 2 goals scored, 4 conceded
- Both teams have lost all league matches so far (Erzurumspor 1 point from a draw, Konyaspor 0 points)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and Konyaspor's defensive struggles give Erzurumspor a reasonable chance to avoid defeat.
- Erzurumspor home advantage: 54.4% average possession, 11.3 shots per game overall
- Konyaspor away form: lost 4-2 to Fenerbahçe, 0 points from 1 away game
- Konyaspor has conceded 7 goals in 3 league matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonErzurumspor or DrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles, making a halftime draw plausible.
- Erzurumspor first-half record: 33% leading, 13% trailing
- Konyaspor first-half record: 33% leading, 27% trailing
- Both teams often draw at halftime
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both halftime and fulltime is possible given both teams' struggles, but low probability.
- Erzurumspor has drawn 1 of 3 league matches
- Konyaspor has lost all 3 league matches
- Historical H2H shows Konyaspor dominance, but current form is poor
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games, with Konyaspor's leaky defense and Erzurumspor's decent attacking output supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Erzurumspor averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match overall
- Konyaspor averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match overall
- Combined average goals per match: 2.8 (Erzurumspor 1.7 + Konyaspor 1.7 conceded)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while also conceding regularly, making BTTS a likely outcome.
- Erzurumspor has scored in 2 of 3 league matches (1 goal total)
- Konyaspor has scored in 2 of 3 league matches (3 goals total)
- Konyaspor has conceded in all 3 league matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, with a combined average above 1 goal, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Erzurumspor averages 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded
- Konyaspor averages 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.1
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' defensive lapses, but confidence is low due to limited half-specific data.
- Erzurumspor second-half goal data not directly available, but overall average 1.7 goals per game
- Konyaspor overall average 1.3 goals per game, with many goals conceded late
- Both teams have shown vulnerability after halftime
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Erzurumspor's defense has been leaky, making a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Erzurumspor has conceded in all 3 league matches (8 goals total)
- Konyaspor has scored in 2 of 3 league matches
- Erzurumspor home match: conceded 4 goals to Galatasaray
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKonyaspor to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Konyaspor's defense has been poor, making an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Konyaspor has conceded in all 3 league matches (7 goals total)
- Erzurumspor has scored in 2 of 3 league matches
- Konyaspor away match: conceded 4 goals to Fenerbahçe
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostErzurumspor to scoreEstimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corner counts are moderate, but the attacking intent of both teams could push the total over 8.5.
- Erzurumspor averages 4 corners per match, Konyaspor averages 3.1
- Combined average corners: 7.1, but recent matches show higher variance
- Erzurumspor home matches have seen 5+ corners in 2 of 3 league games
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Konyaspor's aggressive style and high foul count make over 3.5 cards likely.
- Erzurumspor averages 1.3 yellow cards per match, Konyaspor averages 2.4
- Konyaspor has received a red card in 1 of 3 league matches
- Combined average cards: 3.7, with Konyaspor's high foul rate (14.7 per game)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Erzurumspor's card count is moderate, but home pressure could lead to more bookings.
- Erzurumspor averages 1.3 yellow cards per match
- Home matches have seen 1-3 cards in recent games
- Referee tendencies unknown
BetBugs · Home Cards Over/UnderlostErzurumspor over 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Konyaspor's high foul and card rates make over 2.5 away cards likely.
- Konyaspor averages 2.4 yellow cards per match
- Konyaspor has received a red card in 1 of 3 league matches
- Konyaspor fouls per game: 14.7
BetBugs · Away Cards Over/UnderwonKonyaspor over 2.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 28% is below our 32% estimate, but the edge is only 4 points and confidence is MEDIUM, below the 5-point threshold for a value bet.

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W0-4Erzurumspor FKvKonyasporJul 5, 2022FRI

W1-2Erzurumspor FKvKonyasporJul 25, 2021FRI

W1-2Erzurumspor FKvKonyasporApr 4, 2021SÜP

L2-0KonyasporvErzurumspor FKDec 5, 2020SÜP

W1-2Erzurumspor FKvKonyasporJan 19, 2019SÜP

3 goals/game avg

League Table

Süper Lig 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
17	Erzurumspor	3	0	1	2	1-8	1	DLL
18	Konyaspor	3	0	0	3	3-7	0	LLL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Erzurumspor

D1-1Gençlerbirliği S.K.Aug 28SÜP

L0-4GalatasarayAug 21SÜP

L0-3AmedAug 16SÜP

W3-1Al ArabiJul 23FRI

D0-0RizesporJul 17FRI

D1-1Çorum FKMay 21.

D1-1BandırmasporApr 261.

D1-1Bodrum FKApr 191.

W2-0BolusporApr 131.

W1-0İstanbulsporApr 91.

W2-1Iğdır FKApr 41.

W2-0Esenler EroksporMar 221.

W3-0HataysporMar 151.

L1-3ÜmraniyesporMar 111.

W8-1Manisa F.K.Mar 71.

Konyaspor

L1-2KocaelisporAug 29SÜP

L2-4FenerbahçeAug 22SÜP

L0-1RizesporAug 15SÜP

W2-0Al-DhafraJul 29FRI

L0-3Hull CityJul 25FRI

L1-3Zalaegerszegi TEJul 18FRI

W2-1Zorya LuhanskJul 15FRI

L1-2TrabzonsporMay 22TÜR

L1-2KayserisporMay 17SÜP

L0-3FenerbahçeMay 9SÜP

W1-0BeşiktaşMay 5TÜR

L2-3RizesporMay 1SÜP

W2-1TrabzonsporApr 27SÜP

W2-0AntalyasporApr 17SÜP

W3-0Fatih KaragümrükApr 12SÜP

Squad & Injuries

Erzurumspor

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Konyaspor

33 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Erzurumspor or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Konyaspor to score

Erzurumspor to score

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 6 landed

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Markets to Avoid

Erzurumspor -1

Over 0.5

Over 3.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Erzurumspor

Konyaspor

Squad & Injuries

Erzurumspor

Konyaspor