Burnley1Bristol City2

HT 0–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–285%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 8–14On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 5–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 12:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Burnley's leaky defence and winless start make them overvalued at home; the best value lies with Bristol City at 3.80 (42% estimated vs 26% implied) or the double chance 'Draw or Bristol City' at 1.91 (68% vs 52%).

Goals are likely but avoid Over 3.5, and note that Burnley's renewed defensive focus could tighten the game.

Context

Burnley are 22nd in the Championship with one point from three matches, sitting in the relegation zone.
They have lost their last two league games, conceding seven goals in those defeats. Their only point came from a 2-2 home draw with West Ham on 16 August. This match is an early chance to move away from the bottom three, but their defensive record suggests Bristol City can create chances.
- Burnley are 22nd with 1 point from 3 games (W0 D1 L2).
- They lost 4-1 at Norwich on 29 August and 3-1 at West Brom on 23 August.
- Their only point was a 2-2 home draw with West Ham on 16 August.
Bristol City are 12th with four points from three games.
Their away record is one draw from one match, a 2-2 result at Birmingham on 22 August. They have scored in every league game this season, but they have also conceded in each one. This suggests they can trouble Burnley's defence but may not keep a clean sheet.
- Bristol City drew 2-2 at Birmingham on 22 August.
- They have scored 4 goals and conceded 5 in 3 league games.
Burnley head coach Nicky Hayen has made defensive recovery after turnovers an immediate focus following the 4-1 loss at Norwich.
The adjustment concerns how Burnley protect their shape when attacks break down, which is directly relevant to Bristol City's counter-attacking opportunities. Hayen said defensive responsibility belongs to the whole team rather than only the back four, so the change may involve more coordinated recovery runs. The linked analysis sees Bristol City with a medium edge in the match winner market, but the away side's modest away record tempers that confidence.
- Burnley lost 4-1 at Norwich on 29 August, conceding twice in the opening five minutes.
- Hayen said Burnley have conceded nine goals in three games and must stop giving the ball away cheaply before recovering together in transition.
- Hayen said defensive responsibility belongs to the whole team rather than only the back four.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 12:53 · Europe/BucharestBurnley FC — Hayen’s post-match points: Norwich Citywww.burnleyfootballclub.comBurnley FC — Match report: Norwich City 4-1 Burnleywww.burnleyfootballclub.com
The teams have met four times in the Championship since 2022.
Burnley won both home matches in that span, including a 1-0 victory on 29 March 2025. However, Bristol City won the most recent away fixture 1-0 at their own ground on 23 November 2024. This home advantage may give Burnley some confidence, but the current form gap is significant.
- Burnley beat Bristol City 1-0 at home on 29 March 2025.
- Burnley won 2-1 at home on 17 September 2022.
- Bristol City won 1-0 at home on 23 November 2024.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Burnley's poor defensive form and low league position give Bristol City a slight edge, though the away side's modest away record tempers confidence.
- Burnley are 22nd with 1 point from 3 games, conceding 9 goals (3.0 per game).
- Bristol City are 12th with 4 points, scoring 4 and conceding 5.
- Burnley have lost 2 of 3 league games, including a 4-1 defeat at Norwich.
- Bristol City's away record this season: 1 draw (2-2 at Birmingham).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBristol CityEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's winless start and Bristol City's relative stability make the away side or draw the safer combined outcome.
- Burnley have not won in 3 league games (2L, 1D).
- Bristol City have only lost 1 of 3 league games.
- Burnley's home record: 1 draw (2-2 vs West Ham).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Bristol CityEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The teams are closely matched in first-half performance, making a level score at the break plausible.
- Burnley have been level at half-time in 1 of 3 league games.
- Bristol City have been level at half-time in 1 of 3 league games.
- Both teams have similar first-half goal averages (Burnley 0.4, Bristol City 0.6).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Burnley's second-half defensive vulnerability could allow Bristol City to edge the second period.
- Burnley have conceded 1.3 second-half goals per game.
- Bristol City have scored 0.8 second-half goals per game.
- Burnley's defensive record worsens after the break.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonBristol CityEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A level first half followed by a Bristol City win is a plausible but low-probability sequence given Burnley's struggles.
- Burnley have drawn at half-time in 1 of 3 league games.
- Bristol City have won 1 of 3 league games.
- Burnley have not won a league game this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Bristol CityEstimated chance22%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's leaky defence and both teams' involvement in high-scoring matches support over 2.5 goals.
- Burnley's league games average 4.33 total goals (13 goals in 3 games).
- Bristol City's league games average 3.0 total goals (9 goals in 3 games).
- Burnley have conceded 9 goals in 3 league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown scoring ability, and Burnley's defensive struggles make it likely both find the net.
- Burnley have scored in all 3 league games (4 goals total).
- Bristol City have scored in 2 of 3 league games (4 goals total).
- Burnley have conceded in all 3 league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in first-half scoring, and Burnley's early defensive lapses increase the chance of a first-half goal.
- Burnley's first-half goals: 0.4 per game average, but they conceded 1.0 first-half goals per game.
- Bristol City's first-half goals: 0.6 per game, conceded 0.6 per game.
- In Burnley's last league game, there were 4 first-half goals (1-3).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring has been moderate, but Burnley's defensive fatigue could lead to more goals after the break.
- Burnley's second-half goals: 0.6 per game average, conceded 1.3 per game.
- Bristol City's second-half goals: 0.8 per game, conceded 0.9 per game.
- Combined second-half average: 1.4 goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's consistent concession of goals makes a home clean sheet highly unlikely.
- Burnley have conceded in all 3 league games (9 goals).
- Burnley have not kept a clean sheet in their last 15 matches.
- Bristol City have scored in 2 of 3 league games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBristol City to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bristol City's defence has been breached regularly, and Burnley's home scoring record suggests they will find the net.
- Bristol City have conceded in 2 of 3 league games (5 goals).
- Burnley have scored in all 3 league games (4 goals).
- Bristol City's away game ended 2-2.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBurnley to scoreEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, but the total is close to the line, making over 9.5 a marginal call.
- Burnley average 3.8 corners per game, concede 3.8.
- Bristol City average 4.6 corners per game, concede 4.6.
- Combined average corners: 8.4 per game.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card average sits exactly at the line, with Burnley's higher foul count (12 per game) pushing slightly towards over.
- Burnley average 2.1 yellow cards per game.
- Bristol City average 1.4 yellow cards per game.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.5 per game.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance52%