Second LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Marek Dupnitsa1Pfc Nesebar0

HT 1–0Wed 2 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–713%

Edges1–420%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 00:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Nesebar are undervalued at 4.75 to win (45% model probability vs 21% implied), and the double chance Draw/Nesebar at 2.05 offers strong value.

Marek's home win and draw no bet odds are overpriced given their poor form and two key suspensions, so avoid those markets.

Context

Nesebar sit fifth in the Second League with 10 points from six games, scoring 13 goals and conceding 9.
Their recent scoring includes a 7-0 home win over Pirin Blagoevgrad on 2026-08-23 and a 2-0 home win over Dobrudzha on 2026-08-10. Marek have lost three of their five away league games this season, conceding four goals in those matches. Nesebar's away record is mixed with one win and one loss, but their overall attacking output suggests they can create chances against a Marek defence that has been vulnerable on the road.
- Nesebar beat Pirin Blagoevgrad 7-0 at home on 2026-08-23.
- Nesebar beat Dobrudzha 2-0 at home on 2026-08-10.
- Marek have lost three of five away league games this season, conceding four goals.
Marek are 11th in the Second League with 7 points from six games, having scored 6 and conceded 6.
Their away record shows one win, one draw, and three losses in five matches, with only two goals scored. In contrast, Nesebar have won three of their last four league games, including a 1-0 away win at Sportist Svoge on 2026-08-16. Marek's only home league game this season was a 4-2 win over Dobrudzha, so they have shown they can score at home, but their overall away struggles suggest they may find it difficult to control this match.
- Marek lost 0-1 at Montana on 2026-08-16.
- Marek lost 0-1 at Etar Veliko Tarnovo on 2026-08-07.
- Marek lost 1-2 at Spartak Pleven on 2026-08-01.
Marek midfielder V. Lyubomirov is suspended after his six-match ban was upheld on appeal. He started 2 of the last 5 available lineups, with E. George covering that role in 3.
His absence removes a midfield option for Marek, leaving E. George as the likely starter in that position based on recent selections. The team's midfield depth is reduced, but the exact tactical impact depends on how the coach adjusts.
- The Bulgarian FA disciplinary commission suspended Veselin Lyubomirov for six matches after the red card against Etar.
- On 14 August, the FA appeals body rejected Marek's appeal and upheld the six-match suspension.
- V. Lyubomirov started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- E. George started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when V. Lyubomirov did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 00:00 · Europe/BucharestBulgarian News Agency: six-match sanctions for two Marek playerswww.bta.bg · 11 Aug 2026Palms Sport: Marek appeal rejectedwww.palmssport.bg · 14 Aug 2026
Marek defender H. Kaymakanski is also suspended after his six-match ban was upheld. He started 2 of the last 5 available lineups, with M. Petkov covering in 3.
His unavailability reduces Marek's defensive options, with M. Petkov the likely replacement based on recent usage. The back line may need adjustment, though the specific effect on shape is not detailed.
- The Bulgarian FA disciplinary commission suspended Hristo Kaymakanski for six matches after the red card against Etar.
- On 14 August, the FA appeals body rejected Marek's appeal and upheld the six-match suspension.
- H. Kaymakanski started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- M. Petkov started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when H. Kaymakanski did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 00:00 · Europe/BucharestBulgarian News Agency: six-match sanctions for two Marek playerswww.bta.bg · 11 Aug 2026Palms Sport: Marek appeal rejectedwww.palmssport.bg · 14 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nesebar's superior attacking output and higher league position give them the edge, though Marek's home advantage and Nesebar's mixed away form keep confidence medium.
- Nesebar rank 5th with 10 points from 6 matches; Marek rank 11th with 7 points.
- Nesebar average 3.1 goals scored per match in recent form; Marek average 1.0.
- Marek's recent league form is DWLLL, with three consecutive away losses.
- Nesebar's away record this season: 1 win, 1 loss in 2 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPfc NesebarEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Marek's poor recent form and Nesebar's stronger attacking stats, the away side or a draw is the most likely outcome.
- Marek have lost 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Nesebar have won 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Marek's home record this season is 1 win in 1 match, but overall form is poor.
- Nesebar average 3.1 goals scored per match.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Pfc NesebarEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nesebar's first-half dominance is notable, but the probability remains below 50% due to the possibility of a draw at half-time.
- Nesebar led at half-time in 60% of recent matches.
- Marek led at half-time in 40% of recent matches.
- Nesebar average 1.6 first-half goals vs Marek's 0.6.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostPfc NesebarEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nesebar leading at half-time and full-time is plausible but not highly likely given Marek's home advantage.
- Nesebar led at half-time in 60% of recent matches.
- Nesebar won 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Marek have lost 3 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostPfc Nesebar/Pfc NesebarEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nesebar's high-scoring attack and Marek's leaky defense in their sole home game suggest a strong chance of over 2.5 goals.
- Nesebar's recent matches average 4.2 total goals (3.1 scored, 1.1 conceded).
- Marek's recent matches average 2.0 total goals (1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded).
- Nesebar have scored 13 goals in 6 league matches this season.
- Marek's only home league match this season ended 4-2.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score and concede, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.
- Marek have scored in 4 of their last 6 league matches.
- Nesebar have conceded in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
- Marek's only home league match this season saw both teams score (4-2).
- Nesebar's away matches this season: 2-1 win and 1-3 loss, both with both teams scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nesebar's strong first-half scoring record makes it likely that at least one goal is scored before the break.
- Nesebar average 1.6 first-half goals per match.
- Marek average 0.6 first-half goals per match.
- Nesebar led at half-time in 60% of recent matches.
- Marek led at half-time in 40% of recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring averages suggest a coin-flip for over 1.5 goals, hence low confidence.
- Nesebar's matches average 2.6 second-half goals (total 4.2 minus 1.6 first-half).
- Marek's matches average 1.4 second-half goals (total 2.0 minus 0.6 first-half).
- Combined average second-half goals: 2.0.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner statistics, this prediction is based on a neutral assumption and is highly uncertain.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- No reliable corner averages can be derived from the provided data.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without card statistics, this prediction is based on a neutral assumption and is highly uncertain.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- No reliable card averages can be derived from the provided data.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 62% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 35%; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 1W

L1-0MarekvNesebarMay 17, 2025SEC

W0-2NesebarvMarekNov 23, 2024SEC

1.5 goals/game avg

League Table

Second League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Marek Dupnitsa	6	2	1	3	6-6	7	DWLLL
5	Pfc Nesebar	6	3	1	2	13-9	10	DWWWL

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Marek Dupnitsa

D0-0Sportist SvogeAug 29SEC

W4-2DobrudzhaAug 23SEC

L0-1MontanaAug 16SEC

L0-1Etar Veliko TarnovoAug 7SEC

L1-2Spartak PlevenAug 1SEC

W1-0FratriaJul 25SEC

L0-1VihrenJul 18FRI

W2-0Pirin BlagoevgradJul 11FRI

L0-3CSKA SofiaJul 3FRI

L0-3Septemvri SofiaJun 27FRI

W1-0Etar Veliko TarnovoMay 23SEC

D1-1Hebar 1918May 15SEC

W3-0Chernomorets 1919 BurgasMay 11SEC

D0-0Pirin BlagoevgradMay 2SEC

W2-1BelasitsaApr 25SEC

Pfc Nesebar

D1-1Yantra 2019Aug 29SEC

W7-0Pirin BlagoevgradAug 23SEC

W1-0Sportist SvogeAug 16SEC

W2-0DobrudzhaAug 10SEC

L1-3MontanaAug 4SEC

L1-5Etar Veliko TarnovoJul 25SEC

D1-1Spartak VarnaJul 8FRI

D1-1Ludogorets IIJul 1FRI

W8-1AsenovetsMay 27THI

W4-2ZagoretsMay 23THI

W6-1Spartak PlovdivMay 17THI

W5-0Maritsa PlovdivMay 13THI

W3-1Yambol 1915May 9THI

W4-0Rozova dolinaMay 2THI

W1-0Atletik KuklenApr 29THI

Squad & Injuries

Marek Dupnitsa

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Pfc Nesebar

23 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Pfc Nesebar

Draw or Pfc Nesebar

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Marek Dupnitsa

Marek Dupnitsa, draw no bet

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Marek Dupnitsa

Pfc Nesebar

Squad & Injuries

Marek Dupnitsa

Pfc Nesebar