PremiershipFull time

Predictions graded

Kilmarnock0St. Mirren1

HT 0–1Wed 2 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 9–10On targetOn target 2–1CornersCorners 7–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 11:07 · Europe/Bucharest

St Mirren are the likely winners given Kilmarnock's winless start and defensive struggles, but the best value is in the double chance (Draw or St Mirren at 1.48, +4.4pt edge) and over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.50 (+15pt edge).

Avoid the first-half over 1.5 and over 3.5 goals markets, which are priced against the data.

Context

Kilmarnock are bottom of the Premiership after three matches, with no points and a -9 goal difference.
They have conceded 13 goals in those three games, including four at home to Dundee United on 29 August and five at home to Celtic on 9 August. This defensive weakness is likely to be tested by a St. Mirren side that has scored six goals in three league matches. However, Kilmarnock's recent home form is poor, with two losses and nine goals conceded at Rugby Park.
- Kilmarnock have lost all three Premiership matches this season, scoring 4 and conceding 13.
- They lost 0-4 at home to Dundee United on 29 August 2026 and 1-5 at home to Celtic on 9 August 2026.
- Their home record is 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, with 1 goal scored and 9 conceded.
St. Mirren are second in the Premiership with seven points from three matches.
They have won two and drawn one, scoring six goals and conceding three. Their only away league match was a 2-0 win at Falkirk on 1 August. This strong start gives them a clear advantage over a struggling Kilmarnock side, but their away sample is small and they lost 1-5 to Rangers in the League Cup on 16 August.
- St. Mirren have 7 points from 3 Premiership games, with 2 wins and 1 draw.
- They won 2-0 away at Falkirk on 1 August 2026.
- They drew 3-3 at home to Motherwell on 30 August 2026.
The teams have met five times since September 2025, with two wins each and one draw.
In the most recent meeting on 9 May 2026, Kilmarnock won 3-0 at St. Mirren. However, St. Mirren won 4-3 at home in February 2026 and 2-0 at home in October 2025. The head-to-head is balanced, but Kilmarnock's away win last time may give them some confidence, though their current form is much worse.
- Kilmarnock won 3-0 away at St. Mirren on 9 May 2026.
- St. Mirren won 4-3 at home against Kilmarnock on 11 February 2026.
- St. Mirren won 2-0 at home against Kilmarnock on 4 October 2025.
Kilmarnock defender R. Deas started 3 of the last 5 available lineups before being forced off injured after 19 minutes against Dundee United.
His early exit leaves a central-defensive spot uncertain for this match. George Stanger replaced him on Saturday, but no fitness update has confirmed whether Deas will be available, so Kilmarnock may need to adjust their back line.
- Kilmarnock's official match update said an injury forced R. Deas off for George Stanger in the 18th minute.
- Independent match reporting recorded Deas being replaced through injury after 19 minutes.
- R. Deas started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 11:06 · Europe/BucharestSky Sports match reportwww.skysports.com · 29 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St. Mirren's strong league form and recent H2H dominance outweigh Kilmarnock's home advantage, though Kilmarnock's desperation could make it closer.
- Kilmarnock lost all 3 league matches this season, conceding 13 goals.
- St. Mirren are unbeaten in the league with 2 wins and 1 draw.
- St. Mirren won the most recent H2H 3-0 away at Kilmarnock in May 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSt. MirrenEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock's poor form and defensive frailty make it very unlikely they win, so St. Mirren or draw is a strong double chance.
- Kilmarnock have 0 points from 3 league games.
- St. Mirren have 7 points from 3 league games.
- Kilmarnock's home record this season: 0 wins, 2 losses, 9 goals conceded.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or St. MirrenEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St. Mirren's slightly better first-half record gives them a small edge, but draw is also likely.
- St. Mirren led at half-time in 47% of recent matches.
- Kilmarnock led at half-time in 40% of recent matches.
- St. Mirren's first-half goal difference is +0.2 per game, Kilmarnock's is -0.1.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSt. MirrenEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by St. Mirren win is plausible given Kilmarnock's tendency to fade.
- St. Mirren often start strong but may be held in first half.
- Kilmarnock have not won a league game this season.
- St. Mirren's second-half performance is solid.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/St. MirrenEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock's leaky defense and St. Mirren's attacking intent should produce multiple goals.
- Kilmarnock's league matches average 5.7 total goals (17 goals in 3 games).
- St. Mirren's league matches average 3.0 total goals.
- Kilmarnock conceded 9 goals in 2 home league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown scoring ability, and Kilmarnock's defense is unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- Kilmarnock scored in 2 of 3 league games despite losing all.
- St. Mirren scored in all 3 league games.
- Kilmarnock conceded in every league game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half action, but the line is high relative to averages.
- Kilmarnock's first-half goals per game: 0.8, first-half goals conceded: 0.9.
- St. Mirren's first-half goals per game: 0.9, first-half goals conceded: 0.7.
- Combined average first-half goals: 1.7.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have seen more goals for both teams, supporting over 1.5.
- Kilmarnock's second-half goals per game: 1.3, second-half goals conceded: 0.8.
- St. Mirren's second-half goals per game: 1.0, second-half goals conceded: 0.6.
- Combined average second-half goals: 2.3.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- Kilmarnock average 4.5 corners per game, St. Mirren average 5.6.
- Combined average corners: 10.1.
- Recent H2H matches have varied corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams shoot on target regularly, but the line is close to the combined average.
- Kilmarnock average 4.5 shots on target per game.
- St. Mirren average 5.5 shots on target per game.
- Combined average shots on target: 10.0.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

3W · 2D · 0W

W0-3ST MirrenvKilmarnockMay 9, 2026PRE

W4-3KilmarnockvST MirrenFeb 11, 2026PRE

D0-0ST MirrenvKilmarnockDec 27, 2025PRE

W2-0KilmarnockvST MirrenOct 4, 2025PRE

D2-2KilmarnockvST MirrenSep 19, 2025LEA

Kilmarnock unbeaten in 5 meetingsKilmarnock: 3 clean sheets3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Premiership 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Kilmarnock Premiership (Relegation Group)	3	0	0	3	4-13	0	LLL
2	St. Mirren Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)	3	2	1	0	6-3	7	DWW

7pt gap between teamsKilmarnock in relegation zone

Recent Form

Kilmarnock

L0-4Dundee UtdAug 29PRE

W3-2Ayr UtdAug 14LEA

L1-5CelticAug 9PRE

L3-4ST JohnstoneAug 2PRE

W1-0Hamilton AcademicalJul 21LEA

W1-0Elgin CityJul 18LEA

W3-2LinfieldJul 4FRI

W4-0GlentoranJul 1FRI

W4-1LivingstonMay 17PRE

W3-1DundeeMay 12PRE

W3-0ST MirrenMay 9PRE

W3-0Dundee UtdMay 2PRE

L0-1AberdeenApr 25PRE

D2-2DundeeApr 11PRE

L0-3HibernianApr 4PRE

St. Mirren

D3-3MotherwellAug 30PRE

L1-5RangersAug 16LEA

W1-0ST JohnstoneAug 8PRE

W2-0FalkirkAug 1PRE

L0-1DunfermlineJul 26LEA

W4-3East KilbrideJul 21LEA

W4-0Cove RangersJul 18LEA

W4-0DumbartonJul 11LEA

W4-2ArbroathJun 27FRI

W1-0PartickMay 25PRE

D1-1PartickMay 21PRE

D1-1Dundee UtdMay 17PRE

W2-0AberdeenMay 12PRE

L0-3KilmarnockMay 9PRE

L0-1DundeeMay 2PRE

Squad & Injuries

Kilmarnock

25 available

Attackers9

Midfielders7

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

St. Mirren

34 available

Attackers9

Midfielders15

Defenders6

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or St. Mirren

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Yes

Result3 of 4 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Kilmarnock

St. Mirren

Squad & Injuries

Kilmarnock

St. Mirren