NB IFull time

Predictions graded

Ujpest3Vasas SC1

HT 0–0Sat 29 Aug 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 50%–50%ShotsShots 13–15On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 3–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 23:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Újpest and Vasas are evenly matched, with the draw offering value at 3.60 (model 32% vs implied 27.8%).

The second-half Over 1.5 at 2.05 is the strongest edge (+6.2 points), while Over 2.5 total goals and BTTS Yes are overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Vasas are third in NB I with 8 points from five matches, while Ujpest are fifth with 7 points.
Vasas have a better goal difference (+5 vs +1) and have conceded only 4 goals compared to Ujpest's 9. Their away record is solid with 1 win and 1 draw from 2 matches, while Ujpest have lost 2 of 3 away games. This suggests Vasas may be more defensively stable, but the small points gap means the match is competitive.
- Vasas are 3rd with 8 points (2W, 2D, 1L), Ujpest are 5th with 7 points (2W, 1D, 2L).
- Vasas have a +5 goal difference, Ujpest +1.
- Vasas have conceded 4 goals in 5 matches, Ujpest 9.
Vasas captain J. Urblík has started all five recent fixtures with available lineups and operates as the link between central circulation and attacking threat in their usual 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2.
His access to the ball and space outside the box is a concrete tactical focus, as the reported structures use him to connect build-up with chance creation and long-range shooting lanes. Újpest's midfield pressure on those areas could limit Vasas' attacking connections.
- Újpest's August 27 match preview says Vasas usually play 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2.
- The same preview identifies J. Urblík as Vasas captain, active in organising attacks and capable of threatening from distance.
- J. Urblík started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:19 · Europe/BucharestÚjpest FC match previewwww.ujpestfc.hu · 27 Aug 2026
Ujpest have played 2 home matches in NB I this season, winning 4-2 against Debreceni VSC and drawing 1-1 with MTK Budapest.
Ujpest have scored 5 goals and conceded 3 at home, showing attacking intent. Vasas have kept things tight away, with a 2-1 win at Budapest Honved and a 0-0 draw at Ferencvarosi TC. This match could see Ujpest push forward, but Vasas' away defensive record suggests they can resist.
- Ujpest home record: 1W, 1D, 0L, 5 goals for, 3 against.
- Vasas away record: 1W, 1D, 0L, 2 goals for, 1 against.
- Ujpest beat Debreceni VSC 4-2 at home on 2026-08-02 and drew 1-1 with MTK Budapest on 2026-08-15.
Vasas were reduced to ten shortly before half-time against Puskás Akadémia on August 22, and no subsequent eligibility confirmation has been found.
The unresolved suspension leaves a potential change in midfield availability that could alter Vasas' central coverage and ball-progression options. Until team news confirms the player involved, the effect on selection remains uncertain.
- MLSZ reported that Vasas were reduced to ten shortly before half-time against Puskás Akadémia on August 22.
- MLSZ described this as Vasas' third league match of the season to end with ten players.
To watchSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:19 · Europe/BucharestMLSZ match reportwww.mlsz.hu · 22 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have solid home/away splits and the most recent league H2H was a draw, making a stalemate plausible.
- Ujpest home record this season: 1W-1D-0L (5 goals for, 3 against)
- Vasas away record this season: 1W-1D-0L (2 goals for, 1 against)
- Last NB I H2H meeting ended 1-1 (May 2023)
- Ujpest recent form: LDWWL; Vasas recent form: LWWDD
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ujpest's home resilience and historical edge over Vasas support a double chance on the home side.
- Ujpest unbeaten at home this season (1W-1D)
- Ujpest unbeaten in last 3 NB I H2H meetings (2W-1D)
- Vasas away form: 1W-1D, but only 2 goals scored in 2 away games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUjpest or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vasas's strong first-half defense and moderate first-half scoring by both teams make a level first half likely.
- Ujpest leading at half time in 53% of matches; Vasas leading in 40%
- Ujpest trailing at half time in 33%; Vasas trailing in 13%
- Vasas first half goals conceded average only 0.2
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both intervals is possible given the balanced matchup, but the probability is low due to the rarity of such outcomes.
- Ujpest home matches: 1 draw at half time, 1 draw at full time
- Vasas away matches: 1 draw at half time, 1 draw at full time
- Both teams have moderate draw tendencies
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ujpest's home games have been high-scoring and both teams have positive goal averages, suggesting over 2.5 goals.
- Ujpest home matches average 4.0 total goals (5 for, 3 against in 2 games)
- Vasas away matches average 1.5 total goals (2 for, 1 against in 2 games)
- Ujpest overall average: 2.0 goals for, 1.5 against; Vasas overall: 2.1 for, 1.1 against
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 3+ goals in 3 of 5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and defensive vulnerabilities, making BTTS likely.
- Ujpest scored in 4 of last 5 matches; Vasas scored in 4 of last 5
- Ujpest conceded in 4 of last 5; Vasas conceded in 3 of last 5
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half scoring averages are near the 1.5 line, but Vasas's strong first-half defense lowers confidence.
- Ujpest first half goals average: 0.9; Vasas first half goals average: 0.7
- Ujpest first half goals conceded average: 0.7; Vasas first half goals conceded average: 0.2
- Combined first half goal average: 1.6
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Ujpest second half goals average: 1.1 (2.0 total - 0.9 first half)
- Vasas second half goals average: 1.4 (2.1 total - 0.7 first half)
- Combined second half goal average: 2.5
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ujpest's matches tend to have high corner counts, but Vasas's low corner numbers create uncertainty.
- Ujpest average corners: 4.0; Vasas average corners: 2.0
- Ujpest opponent corners average: 6.0; Vasas opponent corners average: 3.0
- Combined average corners in Ujpest matches: 10.0; in Vasas matches: 5.0
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Foul counts are moderate and card averages are near the line, making over 3.5 cards a coin flip.
- Ujpest average yellow cards: 1.8; Vasas average yellow cards: 0.0
- Ujpest average fouls: 12.5; Vasas average fouls: 14.0
- Combined average cards in Ujpest matches: 3.6; in Vasas matches: 4.0
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 72% leaves no cushion vs our 68% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L4-3VasasvUjpestJul 6, 2024FRI

L2-3UjpestvVasasJul 5, 2023FRI

D1-1UjpestvVasasMay 6, 2023NB

W0-1VasasvUjpestFeb 12, 2023NB

W2-1UjpestvVasasSep 11, 2022NB

3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

NB I 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Ujpest	5	2	1	2	10-9	7	LDWWL
3	Vasas SC Play-offs	5	2	2	1	9-4	8	LWWDD

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Ujpest

L0-2PaksAug 21NB

D1-1MTK BudapestAug 15NB

W4-2Kisvarda FCAug 8NB

W4-2Debreceni VSCAug 2NB

L1-2NyiregyhazaJul 24NB

W2-0Radnik BijeljinaJul 18FRI

D2-2Diosgyori VTKJul 11FRI

D1-1TSV HartbergJul 4FRI

D0-0Universitatea ClujJun 27FRI

W4-0Cegledi VSEJun 20FRI

L1-2Debreceni VSCMay 16NB

L0-5Ferencvarosi TCMay 3NB

L0-2Puskas AcademyApr 25NB

W7-2NyiregyhazaApr 17NB

W3-0KazincbarcikaiApr 11NB

Vasas SC

L0-1Puskas AcademyAug 22NB

W2-1Budapest HonvedAug 14NB

W5-0Zalaegerszegi TEAug 8NB

D0-0Ferencvarosi TCAug 2NB

D2-2Gyori ETO FCJul 26NB

W1-0Fehérvár FCJul 18FRI

W2-1SoroksarJul 18FRI

W5-1Kecskeméti TEJul 11FRI

W3-1Kisvarda FCJul 8FRI

W3-1KomárnoJul 4FRI

L1-3MTK BudapestJul 1FRI

W2-1AjkaMay 17NB

L1-3Budapest HonvedMay 10NB

W3-2Budafoki LCMay 4NB

W2-0Fehérvár FCApr 26NB

Squad & Injuries

Ujpest

30 available

Attackers9

Midfielders7

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Vasas SC

32 available

Attackers11

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Over 1.5

Ujpest or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Ujpest

Vasas SC

Squad & Injuries

Ujpest

Vasas SC