2. BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Heidenheim5Dynamo Dresden3

HT 0–1Sat 29 Aug 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 37%–63%ShotsShots 27–17On targetOn target 10–8CornersCorners 6–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 00:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Heidenheim or Draw at 1.40 for a small but solid edge (75% model vs 71.4% implied), and consider Over 1.5 first-half goals at 2.05 (55% vs 48.8%).

Avoid the match winner and Over 2.5 goals markets, which are priced efficiently or negatively.

Context

Heidenheim sit ninth with three points after two 2. Bundesliga matches.
They beat VfL Osnabrück 4-3 at home on 2026-08-08 but lost 4-1 at Hertha BSC on 2026-08-15. The seven goals conceded in two matches show a leaky defence, and Dynamo Dresden may find chances even away from home.
- Heidenheim won 4-3 at home against VfL Osnabrück on 2026-08-08.
- Heidenheim lost 4-1 away to Hertha BSC on 2026-08-15.
- Heidenheim have conceded 7 goals in 2 league matches.
Heidenheim forward Marvin Pieringer has left the club with immediate effect, joining SC Paderborn 07.
His departure removes a forward option from Heidenheim's matchday selection for this fixture. Frank Schmidt confirmed Pieringer was the only squad change from the previous week, so the remaining attacking group must cover his absence.
- Heidenheim announced on 26 August that Marvin Pieringer had left with immediate effect to join SC Paderborn 07.
- Frank Schmidt said on 28 August that Pieringer was the only squad change from the previous week.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 09:33 · Europe/Bucharest1. FC Heidenheim: Pieringer joins Paderbornprodqa.fc-heidenheim.de · 26 Aug 20261. FC Heidenheim pre-match press conferencewww.fc-heidenheim.de · 28 Aug 2026
Dynamo Dresden are 11th with three points after two 2. Bundesliga matches.
They lost 3-0 at 1. FC Nürnberg on 2026-08-09 and won 1-0 at home against SV Darmstadt 98 on 2026-08-16. The away defeat and low scoring output suggest they may struggle to break down Heidenheim.
- Dynamo Dresden lost 3-0 away to 1. FC Nürnberg on 2026-08-09.
- Dynamo Dresden won 1-0 at home against SV Darmstadt 98 on 2026-08-16.
- Dynamo Dresden have scored 1 goal in 2 league matches.
Heidenheim head coach Frank Schmidt has reset defensive preparation for this match.
Schmidt said the group spent the week chiefly on defensive issues, targeting defensive spacing, duels and support around the ball. That work directly concerns Heidenheim's organisation when defending Dresden's attacks.
- Schmidt said the team had mainly worked on defensive issues during the week before facing Dresden.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 09:33 · Europe/Bucharest1. FC Heidenheim pre-match press conferencewww.fc-heidenheim.de · 28 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Heidenheim's home games have been high-scoring, and Dresden's away games have also trended towards goals, making over 2.5 likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Heidenheim's strong home form and Dresden's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, supported by the structural home/away edge signal.
- Heidenheim home record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses (4 goals scored, 3 conceded)
- Dynamo Dresden away record this season: 0 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss (0 goals scored, 3 conceded)
- Heidenheim last 5 home matches in all competitions: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss
- Dynamo Dresden last 5 away matches in all competitions: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHeidenheimEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Heidenheim's solid home form and Dresden's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely, reinforced by H2H psychology showing Heidenheim unbeaten in recent meetings.
- Heidenheim have not lost at home in their last 5 competitive home matches (3 wins, 2 draws)
- Dynamo Dresden have failed to win in their last 4 away matches in all competitions (0 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses)
- H2H last 3 competitive meetings: Heidenheim 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHeidenheim or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Heidenheim's tendency to lead at half-time at home gives them a slight edge, but Dresden's resilience makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Heidenheim led at half-time in 53% of their last 15 matches
- Dynamo Dresden trailed at half-time in only 20% of their last 15 matches
- Heidenheim's last 5 home matches: led at half-time in 2, drew in 2, trailed in 1
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostHeidenheimEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Heidenheim's strong home form could lead to a full-time win after leading at half-time, but the low frequency of such outcomes makes this a low-confidence prediction.
- Heidenheim have won both halves in 2 of their last 5 home matches
- Dynamo Dresden have lost both halves in 2 of their last 5 away matches
- Heidenheim's home record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostHeidenheim/HeidenheimEstimated chance30%

Goals2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Heidenheim's home games have been high-scoring, and Dresden's away games have also trended towards goals, making over 2.5 likely.
- Heidenheim's last 5 home matches in all competitions: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
- Heidenheim average goals per home match this season: 4.0 scored, 3.0 conceded
- Dynamo Dresden's last 5 away matches in all competitions: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
- Heidenheim's overall average goals per match (last 15): 2.3 scored, 2.1 conceded
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown the ability to score while also conceding regularly, making both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- Heidenheim have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches
- Dynamo Dresden have scored in 3 of their last 5 away matches
- Heidenheim have conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches
- Dynamo Dresden have conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and Heidenheim's home games often see early goals, supporting over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Heidenheim average first-half goals per match (last 15): 1.3 scored, 1.1 conceded
- Dynamo Dresden average first-half goals per match (last 15): 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded
- Heidenheim's last 5 home matches: 3 had over 1.5 first-half goals
- Dynamo Dresden's last 5 away matches: 2 had over 1.5 first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 5 corners per match, suggesting a total above 9.5 is possible, though the sample size is limited.
- Heidenheim average corners per match (last 15): 5.3
- Dynamo Dresden average corners per match (last 15): 5.7
- Combined average corners per match: 11.0
- Heidenheim's last 5 home matches: average total corners 9.8
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average shots on target is just above 8.5, making this a borderline call with low confidence.
- Heidenheim average shots on target per match (last 15): 4.9
- Dynamo Dresden average shots on target per match (last 15): 3.9
- Combined average shots on target per match: 8.8
- Heidenheim's last 5 home matches: average total shots on target 9.6
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average yellow cards is below 3.5, but recent home matches for Heidenheim have seen slightly more cards, making this a coin-flip.
- Heidenheim average yellow cards per match (last 15): 1.3
- Dynamo Dresden average yellow cards per match (last 15): 1.6
- Combined average yellow cards per match: 2.9
- Heidenheim's last 5 home matches: average total yellow cards 3.2
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

W0-1Dynamo DresdenvFC HeidenheimJun 29, 2022FRI

D1-1Dynamo DresdenvFC HeidenheimFeb 18, 20222.

L2-1FC HeidenheimvDynamo DresdenSep 12, 20212.

D0-0FC HeidenheimvDynamo DresdenFeb 2, 20202.

L2-1Dynamo DresdenvFC HeidenheimAug 18, 20192.

Heidenheim: 2 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

2. Bundesliga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	5-7	3	LW
11	Dynamo Dresden	2	1	0	1	1-3	3	WL

Recent Form

Heidenheim

L2-5SSV JeddelohAug 23DFB

L2-4Bayern MünchenAug 18FRI

L1-4Hertha BSCAug 152.

W4-3VfL OsnabrückAug 82.

W4-1FC Ingolstadt 04Aug 1FRI

L1-3Hamburger SVJul 25FRI

D1-1BolognaJul 22FRI

W9-0NordlingenJul 15FRI

L0-1FC LuganoJul 10FRI

W2-1SCR AltachJul 4FRI

L0-2FSV Mainz 05May 16BL

W3-11. FC KölnMay 10BL

D3-3Bayern MünchenMay 2BL

W2-0FC St. PauliApr 25BL

L1-2SC FreiburgApr 19BL

Dynamo Dresden

W6-0Westfalia RhynernAug 23DFB

W1-0SV Darmstadt 98Aug 162.

L0-31. FC NürnbergAug 92.

W2-1Union BerlinAug 1FRI

L1-2Energie CottbusJul 25FRI

W5-0Grazer AKJul 18FRI

W4-0Hessen KasselJul 11FRI

W14-0Budissa BautzenJul 3FRI

W2-1Holstein KielMay 172.

L1-2Eintracht BraunschweigMay 92.

W1-01. FC KaiserslauternMay 22.

L1-3Fortuna DüsseldorfApr 242.

W2-0VfL BochumApr 182.

W2-01. FC NürnbergApr 112.

L0-1Hertha BSCApr 42.

Squad & Injuries

Heidenheim

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Dynamo Dresden

30 available

Attackers3

Midfielders11

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Heidenheim or Draw

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Yes

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 3 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Heidenheim

Dynamo Dresden

Squad & Injuries

Heidenheim

Dynamo Dresden